The decline in net profit in the second quarter of the United States' "Four Rows" indicates that the risk of economic recession in the United States has intensified

Reporter Zhu Baochen

Learr reporter Han Yu

A few days ago, large U.S. banks have disclosed the second quarter financial report, and most banks' performance has fallen significantly. Among them, the "four major banks" in the United States -JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Citi Group and Wells Fargo in the second quarter of net profit decreased significantly, and revenue growth rates have also slowed down.

Insiders believe that the sharp decline in the business of the "four major banks" investment banks in the United States has led to a decrease in non -interest income of banks. At the same time, due to the increase in the additional provision of the provision in the second quarter, it has dragged down its net profit significantly down.

Financial scholar Dr. Xiao Zuyi said in an interview with the Securities Daily that the current US economic inflation is high, and the Fed has raised interest rate hikes 4 times during the year, and the market has gradually increased its expectations for recession. In the context of economic downlink, banks usually make a significant one in advance to prevent more prone to credit defaults and bad debt risks. Although it is regular operation, it also reflects from the side that the US banking industry has incorporated the risk of economic recession into expectations.

Investment banking business sharply decreases

Significantly dragging non -interest income

"Securities Daily" reporter sorted out the US "Four Character" financial reports and found that in the second quarter, the net profit of the four banks fell sharply. The net profit of Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Citi Group, and Wells Fargo fell 28%, 33%, 27%, and 48%year -on -year. Among them, the related business of investment banks has decreased sharply, which has dragged down the non -interest income.

Taking Morgan Chase as an example, the net income of its investment bank's handling fee in the second quarter decreased by 54%year -on -year. JPO CEO Jamie Dimon said in a financial report that the decline in investment banking business was mainly caused by poor overseas macroeconomic poor economy.

Guoxin Securities also has a similar point of view. The large -scale upward rise in the US interest rate and the poor performance of the capital market have reduced the demand for bonds and stock issuance, thus dragging down the income of investment banks.

According to Ernst & Young statistics, since the beginning of this year, the number of IPOs in the United States has dropped sharply in terms of quantity and fundraising. From the beginning of the year to the second quarter, the number of IPOs of the Nasdaq Exchange and the New York Stock Exchange was only 54, with a fundraising amount of $ 4.8 billion, a year -on -year decrease of 75%and 94%, respectively. Continuous inflation pressure, super -narrowing monetary policy, and concerns about the economic downturn have increased the market uncertainty. Most sections of valuations have declined, which weakens the willingness of enterprises to carry out IPOs at this stage.

Increase the effort of allocating preparation

Economic downlink risk is prominent

In addition to the sharp shrinkage of the investment bank's business income, large US banks have increased their preparations, which has also led to a decline in net profit.

"Compared with the release of the release of the same period last year, this year's large US banks have resumed allocated the preparation and brought a great drag on net profit due to concerns about the risk of economic downturn." Guoxin Securities believed.

Xiangcai Securities analysis said that since 2022, major US banks have resumed and provided, and in the second quarter, it has increased its efforts.

The reporter analyzed the financial report data found that in the second quarter, Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Citi Group and Wells Wells accrued asset impairment losses to US $ 1.1 billion, US $ 520 million, US $ 1.27 billion and US $ 580 million, respectively. The growth rate. At the same time, according to the calculation of Xiangcai Securities, as of the end of the second quarter, the preparation rates of the above four banks also reached 247%, 288%, 526%, and 197%, respectively, an average increase of 38 percentage points from the previous month.

“美国银行业有较强的顺周期性。在经济上行周期，银行一般计提拨备较少，或释放拨备。而在经济下行周期，银行为防范风险会大幅计提拨备，导致拨The coverage rate has risen. "Xiao Zuyu said that US financial capital is very sensitive to the economic trend. Under the influence of the epidemic, American companies, especially small and medium -sized enterprises, have weak risk resistance. The Federal Reserve has a weak repayment ability and weak repayment willingness in the short term. The probability of the US banking industry is to prepare for the economic slowdown.

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