New energy vehicles are expected to continue to grow high

Although affected by the multi -point distribution of new crown pneumonia and the rise in raw materials, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in my country in the first half of this year completed 2.661 million and 2.6 million, respectively, averaging 1.2 times year -on -year, and the market share reached 21.6%.

With the introduction of the state's promotion of automobile consumption policies, the number of automotive indicators in restrictions on purchase restrictions, the restrictions on the qualifications of car purchase, and the recovery of the industrial chain supply chain, my country's new energy vehicles are expected to continue to maintain high growth in the second half of the year. The China Automobile Association predicts that the annual sales are expected to reach 5.5 million units, a year -on -year increase of more than 56%.

Market competitiveness has steadily improved

52557! In June of this year, Tesla Model Y's domestic delivery hit a new high. The top monthly sales list of Chinese passenger cars topped the list, which also means that the first monthly single -month electric vehicle sales exceeded the fuel vehicle model.

"The core reason for the outbreak of the new energy vehicle market is that it has strong competitive products compared to fuel vehicles, and this competitiveness is reflected in cost -effectiveness." Xu Changming, deputy director of the National Information Center, said that representative products It is Tesla Model 3, Model Y, which has strongly drove some high -end products in China after listing, and changed Chinese consumers' awareness of new energy vehicle products.

At the same time, Wuling Hongguang's sales have risen all the way after listing, becoming an Internet celebrity model, and are sought after by consumers. By improving product power and price advantages, the BYD DMI series is also very competitive than fuel vehicles.

According to the monthly "sun -sun" data of the new car enterprise, after the first time the delivery volume exceeded 10,000 vehicles in June, Weilai Automobile, Xiaopeng Automobile, Ideal Car, Nezha Motors, and Zero Running Automobile were delivered in July. Over 10,000. GAC Ean's delivery volume exceeded 25,000 units. The cumulative sales of over 125,200 units in the first seven months of this year, an increase of 135%year -on -year.

Behind the improvement of the competitiveness of new energy vehicles is the resonance of multi -party coexistence. In recent years, the central and local governments have successively introduced a series of new energy vehicle consumption support policies, involving the level of purchase of vehicle subsidies, tax exemptions, licenses and traffic discounts, and promoted the core key technologies such as new energy vehicles and power batteries. Keep maturity. The quality, range, and safety performance of vehicle products have been continuously improved, which has further promoted the improvement of market recognition.

According to the "S -shaped curve" theory of emerging industries, the market penetration rate exceeds 20%, which is considered to be an inflection point for the development of the industry, which means that the new energy vehicle market will usher in explosive growth. The rise of the new forces of car construction has forced traditional car companies and foreign luxury brands to accelerate the layout of the new energy vehicle market. The emergence of more competitive new energy vehicle products will effectively promote the cost -effectiveness of new energy vehicles surpassing fuel vehicles and accelerate the market penetration and popularization of new energy vehicles.

Industrial chain reconstruction acceleration

While the rapid growth of new energy vehicles, the contradiction between the supply chain is also prominent.

At the 2022 World Power Battery Conference held in Yibin, Sichuan in late July, Zeng Qinghong, chairman of GAC Group, spoke in his speech: "The cost of power batteries has accounted for 40%to 60%of our car costs. ? "

"I usually encounter our complaints about us, saying that the entire vehicle factory is not very profitable. Did your battery factory take away the profits?" Wu Kai, chief scientist in Ningde Times, couldn't help but claimed at this conference: " Although our company has not lost money this year, it is basically struggling at the edge of a little profitable, which is very painful. "

Since last year, the price of battery materials such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and nickel have risen, especially lithium carbonate has soared from more than 50,000 yuan per ton to more than 460,000 yuan per ton. According to the preview disclosed by Tianqi Lithium, the profit profit is expected to be 9.6 billion yuan to 11.6 billion yuan in the first half of this year, and the net profit of Ganfeng Lithium is 7.2 billion yuan to 9 billion yuan. Energy vehicles do not make money.

"The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, together with the National Development and Reform Commission and the General Administration of Market Supervision, organized a symposium on the lithium industry operation meeting and upstream materials price increases to curb the trend of price increases of lithium carbonate. Raw materials such as oil cokes for negative electrodes are also rising sharply, which has put a lot of pressure on the production and operation of enterprises. "Said Guo Shougang, deputy director of the Equipment Industry Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.

From the perspective of the development experience of traditional fuel vehicles, most upstream component companies work for the entire vehicle factory, and in the period of the industry to new energy change, the entire vehicle manufacturer must work for the raw material supplier of the upstream battery. saw. Zhang Jiangfeng, deputy president of the Lithium Branch of the China Nonferrous Metal Industry Association, said, "The high price of lithium is not conducive to downstream application expansion, which may lead to more alternatives. The cost of the entire industrial chain ".

A healthy industrial chain must be an ecology of the upper, middle and downstream, and a benign game. The problem is that due to the growth of consumer demand, the expansion of the current downstream of the industry is usually smooth and the cycle is short. The development of upstream resource development is often affected by regional restrictions, environmental protection requirements, reserves scale, mining difficulty, and infrastructure conditions. The cycle is longer. The mismatch of the upstream and downstream expansion cycle has led to the continued tense situation of lithium products in the short term to the middle period. It takes a certain amount of time to achieve a real balance in the supply and demand pattern of the lithium industry.

Guo Shougang said that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will do a good job in the guarantee of power battery resource materials from three aspects: First, guide upstream and downstream enterprises to strengthen supply and demand docking, establish stable cooperative relationships by signing long -term agreements, and coordinate the risk of resource supply and price fluctuations; Promote the development and utilization of domestic resource, guide local competent authorities to do a good job of production factor guarantee work, continue to improve the level of domestic resources, and support leading enterprises to jointly develop overseas resources in accordance with international rules; Regenerative raw material standards, improve the power battery recycling system. At the same time, both vehicle companies and battery companies have strengthened their control of upstream core resources. In addition to Tesla's "Buying and Buying" model, BYD not only obtained a lithium mining contract in Chile, but also strategically invested in Shengxin Lithium. Shengxin Lithium has multiple lithium salt production lines in China, and has deployed lithium ore and salt lake resources abroad. Following the signing of a strategic investment agreement between the Capital and SAIC Capital and Jiuling Lithium, Zeng Qinghong also revealed that "we are also considering buying lithium ore."

According to incomplete statistics, many auto manufacturers including Tesla, GAC, BYD, Great Wall, Great, GM, Ford, etc. have been involved in the upstream supply chain of the battery raw materials. Automotive manufacturers have become new energy vehicle industry chain supply chain reconstruction new trends from production power batteries, shares, and even controlling lithium mine resources.

New consumption model to be explored

With the desperate expansion of major chip manufacturers, the shortage of automotive chips seems to have signs of relief. However, the intelligent competition of the entire vehicle company around the chip is even more intense.

A few days ago, Ji Yan announced that the 001 cockpit was fully upgraded to the "Qualcomm Snapdragon 8155 smart cockpit computing platform", and the owners who were not delivered could be upgraded directly. Old users can make an appointment for free. According to Jiyang, the Qualcomm Snapdragon 8155 chip uses a 7nm process process and has 8 core CPUs. Compared with the original 820A car machine chip, the CPU computing power increased by 177%, and the GPU computing power increased by 94%. The cockpit platform after updating the chip is equipped with 16GB of memory, double the bandwidth, and 128GB storage space.

The level of intelligent cockpit technology is an important criterion for measuring the degree of intelligence. "The core competitiveness of the smart cockpit is gradually inclined to the chip and application software service ecosystem, and the chip determines the level of intelligence of the cockpit, such as the number of screens, display effects, smooth operation, etc.; (Air download technology) upgrade. "Wang Yao, assistant to the Secretary -General of the China Automobile Association and Minister of Technology, said that the synergistic ability of software and hardware will determine the core competitiveness of smart cockpits.

"Software and hardware upgrades have been planned in the early stages of product planning, including free upgrades. We have determined to be left to users for reform the previous year. The original plan has been estimated." CEO An Conghui explained this, but gave all the owners to replace the 8155 smart chip for free. At the same time, the software OTA upgrades in the three major fields of smart drive, smart cockpit and intelligent driving, and instantly pushed the Jiwen brand to the forefront.

One month before Jiwen's free upgrade policy launched, Weilai Automobile released the smart cockpit upgrade plan. The minimum cost of the old car owner to upgrade the 8155 chip cost 9600 yuan. Although from the content of the upgrade package, the fee is not high, which is the cost price. However, consumers will feel disadvantaged to compare with extremely free.

Earlier, Tesla CEO Musk said: "The future profit growth point of the automotive industry is not selling cars, but two aspects: travel services based on autonomous driving technology and user terminal -based software." This is also many cars making cars manufacturing The new vehicle logic followed by the new forces, that is, selling cars does not require great profits. The profit focus of car companies is the OTA upgrade and derived peripheral services after vehicles use.

"In order to meet consumers' requirements for the diversification and personalization of intelligent connected auto products, the value of the product gradually moved back to the application end, and the user's own decision applied services have gradually become the development trend of the industry." Wang Yao said that in the process of value backward, with the development and process improvement of the technology, the cost of hardware will gradually decrease. In the past, the one -time payment model of car trading will also be transformed towards life -long paid services. The payment model is still in the exploration stage, and consumers are still in the process of adapting to the new consumption model.

The first half of the new energy vehicle competition was electrified, and the second half was intelligent. Many people in the industry also pointed out that in the context of the launch of a paid upgrade chip plan for multiple car companies, the free upgrade of 300 million yuan of luxury 300 million yuan launched this time is likely to directly hit the unbelievable users to pay for the software, or it will break the software, or it will break through The dream of the new forces OTA upgraded the charging of the car, promoting the intelligent competition of new energy vehicles into a climax in advance.

Source: Economic Daily

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