The US dollar index weakened the gold rebound, the largest gold ETF ended the minimum increase of 0.58 tons, 0.58 tons

The 21st Century Business Herald reporter Ye Mai Sui Guangzhou reported that spot gold refreshed the high level to $ 1780.16/ounce since July 5th. It is expected that the fifth consecutive trading day rose. As investors increasingly believed that the Fed's radical water collection will cause the economy to fall into a recession Essence The world's largest gold ETF -SPDR has finally ended for more than a month to reduce its holdings, and recently began to increase its holdings.

Gold ETF ends for a month -long position reduction

The Federal Reserve, White House, and economists have stated that the economy has not fallen into decline based on a wider range of measurement indicators, but US Treasury yields reflect evil. The US 10 -year Treasury yield fell 33 basis points in July, the largest monthly decline since March 2020.

Traditional recession indicators such as yield curve spreads are hovering near the lowest level of the year. The market participants have increased bets in recent days, arguing that the US federal fund interest rate will reach the peak of the rate hike cycle by the end of 2022.

According to the latest data of the CME "Fed Observation" tools, traders are currently expected that the Fed will continue 75 basis interest rate hikes in the next meeting in September less than 30%, and the possibility of 50 basis points in interest rate hikes exceed 70 %.

Stepheninnes, a partner of SPIASSETMANAGEMENT, said: "The US dollar has always been in an unfavorable position and pushes gold to rise. People have a consistent expectation of the rapid slowdown in the economy, and suggest that the Fed's water collection will weaken."

Everbright Futures said that in the short term, the Fed's 75 -basis points in July rate hikes have landed, and the market's interest rate hike is expected to fall to 50 basis points in September. The most intense interest rate hike has passed. Judging from the announcement of GDP data in the second quarter, the economy is also unstable, and the market is expected to gradually turn "pigeons". In addition, the European Central Bank has entered the 11 -year interest rate hike cycle, and officials are constantly releasing the eagle. The slowdown of the Fed's interest rate hike is unprepared to superimposed the rhythm of the European and American interest rate hikes, or the euro performance is strong. The US dollar continues to decline at a high level, and the possibility of a phase rebound in the gold price.

According to data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), as of the week of July 26, the Comex gold futures net short position held by the fund manager increased by 753 hand contracts to 10474 hand contracts. New year high. COMEX silver futures speculative net short position increases 4004 hands to 17493 hands. The COMEX Phase Copper speculative net short position increased by 5309 hands to 19757.

After the US dollar index touched 109.294 on July 14, it began to retreat, and it has now fallen to 105 points.

The world's largest gold ETF -SPDR's positioning has ended the reduction since June 17, with a small increase of 0.58 tons on July 29, and the latest positions are 1005.87 tons.

Bank continuously reminds precious metal risks

Regarding the trend of gold this month, the research report of the precious metal research team of the Intermediate Research Institute stated that the gold price in August will continue the strong rebound at the end of July. Because The pressure of the long -lasting dollar of gold was released. The main force of Shanghai Gold may return to the range of 385 yuan to 390 yuan and for some time. However, considering that the Fed's attitude is still very far away from a large change, the possibility of radical interest rate hike at the policy conference in September is still not small. After the golden pressure release is basically completed, or after the emergence of new data and information guidelines, the strong dollar is still strong dollar. Will suppress gold. It is expected that the operating range of the main contract of Shanghai Gold may be 370 yuan -410 yuan. In terms of operation, it is recommended to wait and see, and radical investors can operate more and more operations, pay attention to control positions, and timely stop profits and stop loss.

The increase in precious metal fluctuations, the institutions have actively reminded the risks. Recently, after the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and the Construction Bank, the Bank of Communications issued a risk tips on the accounting precious metal business on August 2 that the recent market fluctuations are large, which will prevent market risks. It is recommended that customers hold investment risk control, reasonably arrange investment transactions, actively control risk exposure, and reduce the scale of positions.

As gold is still low, gold consumption has increased. According to the latest data of the National Bureau of Statistics on July 15, the retail sales of gold and silver jewelry in June in June reached 25.7 billion yuan, an increase of 8.1%year -on -year, showing signs of heating.

Guojin Securities believes that weddings such as gold and silver jewelry demand are relatively high, and it is expected that after the epidemic impact is gradually weakened, it will be released, and it is driven by many factors such as the rise of the needs of the demand, the upgrade of the ancient law, and the high price of gold prices. In the second half of the year, consumption is expected to recover further.

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