The liquid ammonia market continues to weaken

Since seeing the liquid ammonia market in mid -May, it has begun to fall down, and July has fallen sharply. Market monitoring data show that at the end of July, the price of liquid ammonia had fallen to 3740 yuan (ton price, the same below), and the monthly declined exceeded 1,000 yuan, a decrease of 21.9%. Compared with the highest price of this year, the decline has reached 30%.

From the perspective of the industry, there are four main reasons for liquid ammonia prices:

First, the early increase is too large. In the first half of this year, the price of liquid ammonia had a wave of skyrocketing. By the middle of May, it reached the highest point. At that time, the quotation of liquid ammonia was generally more than 5,000 yuan, and individual companies exceeded 6,000 yuan, and a rare high price appeared. Excessive rise also overdrawn the market, and there is a need for rational regression.

The second is affected by the sharp decline in urea. After July, due to the weakened demand, the urea market changed its strong decline in the early stage. In just over 10 days, the price fell more than 500 yuan. This is the fastest period of decline this year. The correlation between the urea and the liquid ammonia market is very strong, and the price of urea has plummeted, resulting in the rapid decline of the liquid ammonia market.

Third, the contradiction between supply and demand in the market has increased. After the price of urea fell sharply, some manufacturers adjusted the production model to reduce urea yield and multi -selling liquid ammonia. In this way, the supply of liquid ammonia market is invisible, and with the re -production of nitrogen fertilizer manufacturers in the early stage, the supply of liquid ammonia market has further increased. Affected by the influence of buying up and not buying a decline, the intention of downstream delivery was poor, the contradiction between supply and demand in the market increased, and the price of liquid ammonia was forced to be reduced.

Fourth, liquid ammonia import resume growth. In the first five months of this year, as the price of international liquid ammonia rose significantly higher than the domestic price, the import of liquid ammonia in my country was significantly blocked, and the import volume in May fell below the 10,000 -ton mark. But after June, with the decline of international liquid ammonia, my country's liquid ammonia import recovery increased. According to customs data, the import volume of liquid ammonia in my country in June reached 45,000 tons, an increase of 64%year -on -year, and an increase of 360%month -on -month. The increase in liquid ammonia imports has increased the domestic supply and puts pressure on the domestic market.

Regarding the liquid ammonia backlook, Jin Lianchuang analyzed that, as a whole, as the mainstream prices of ammonia companies in the main producing area dropped to below the cost line and the low -price supply of low -priced ammonia companies in the early stage decreased, the willingness to continue to reduce the price was weakened. The downstream demand industry is overall, and the ammonia market has pressure. At present, the upstream and downstream games will affect the next trend of liquid ammonia. There are still incremental expectations in the short -term, and the future trend of the liquid ammonia market is still not optimistic.

- END -