Consolidate the trend

The Political Bureau of the Central Committee recently held a meeting to analyze the current economic situation and deploy economic work in the second half of the year. The meeting requested that the requirements of the epidemic should be fully implemented, the economy must be stabilized, and the development of the economy must be consolidated, the economic recovery is rising, and the efforts to stabilize the employment and stable prices, maintain the economic operation in a reasonable range, and strive to achieve the best results.

At present, my country's economy is in the key window of stabilizing and recovering. How to understand the spirit of the Political Bureau of the Central Political Bureau, how to think and what to do in the second half of the year, the reporter interviewed experts and scholars.

Promote the implementation of various policies

In the first half of the year, in the face of the complicated and severe international situation and the arduous and heavy tasks of domestic reform and development, my country's efficient coordinating epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, effectively responding to various risks, maintaining the overall stability of the overall economic and social development.

In the second quarter, the economic downward pressure increased sharply due to the impact of an excellent factors such as a new round of epidemic, and the main indicators in April fell deeply. The Party Central Committee and the State Council decisively cope with and regulate them in a timely manner, put steady growth in a more prominent position, insist on not engaged in "large water fillets", promote the original policy of the original policy, and implement and implement a policy of stabilizing the economy. The decline in economic indicators has slowed down, and the economic stability has rebounded in June. The main indicators have rebounded rapidly, from negative to positive, and the unemployment rate of urban investigation has decreased significantly.

In the first half of the year, GDP increased by 2.5%year -on -year, of which 0.4%in the second quarter. In the situation where the decline in the main production demand indicators in April and May, the results were not easy to achieve, which fully reflects the strong toughness of my country's economy. Essence

"Under the role of active macro policies in the first half of the year, my country's economy has begun to rise steadily, but the output gap is still negative. In the second half of the year, it is necessary to promote the further recovery of the economy." Chen Yanbin, executive deputy dean of the Graduate School of Renmin University of China and professor at the School of Economics.

At present, economic operations still face some outstanding contradictions and problems. We must maintain strategic determination and do your own business. "Persistence is victory. In the first half of the year, the whole country worked hard, worked hard, and achieved new achievements in economic and social development; in the second half of the year, we must adhere to the implementation of various policies." Ping said.

Strive to achieve the best results

Regarding the annual economic development goals, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee pointed out that maintaining economic operations in a reasonable range and strive to achieve the best results.

In this regard, Wang Jun, director of the China Chief Economist Forum, believes that the conference is based on a practical and positive attitude, facing the uncertainty of the internal and external environment facing the current economy, and releases the background of the "triple pressure". , Dilute the target of economic growth, and turn the policy focus to the clear signal of stability.

Lian Ping said that the meeting did not particularly emphasize the need to work hard to achieve the economic growth goal set at the beginning of the year. The key functions operate in an orderly manner, and the economic growth rate is more acceptable. "

How to understand "Strive to achieve the best results"? Liu Yuanchun, president of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, believes that to ensure the realization of the goal of stable employment and stability is an important indicator. More than 11 million new employment in cities and towns, and the unemployment rate of urban investigation is not more than 5.5%throughout the year, which is of great significance for the stable economic and social development. At the same time, in the context of high global inflation, reducing the systemic impact of input inflation on my country's supply and demand relationship, maintaining relatively stable domestic prices, not only helping to stabilize the lives, but also an important symbol of supply and demand balance. In addition, the economic recovery requires economic cycles without stagnation, so it is also important to maintain smooth domestic market cycle and effectiveness.

Liu Yuanchun said that the economic development goals set at the beginning of the year were determined based on the "triple pressure" facing at the time, but since March, the Chinese economy has suffered from repeated new crown pneumonia epidemic, and the excessive factors such as the deterioration of the external environment will be impacted. Essence The economic development goals need to be adjusted according to objective and actual actual conditions, and do not sacrifice future growth potential in order to achieve short -term growth. Instead, it will achieve sustainable growth in the dynamic balance of cross -term dynamics. Liu Yuanchun believes that as long as the economic speed of the fourth quarter reaches normalization, it still shows that China's economic growth momentum is sufficient, and the toughness and development space are sufficient.

In Wang Jun's view, "striving to achieve the best results" means improving the tolerance of the slowdown in economic growth in the short term. Fully mobilize the enthusiasm of all aspects, take the initiative, seek progress steadily, and strive to reach a better level. For example, the meeting proposed that "the big economic province must be bravely picked up, and the provinces with conditions must strive to complete the expected goals of economic and social development" "to create a good policy and institutional environment, so that state -owned enterprises dare to work, private enterprises, and foreign companies." The purpose is to fully mobilize the enthusiasm of local governments and various enterprises.

Macro policies must actively act as

The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee emphasized that "macro policies must actively actively act as" expanding demand "and" fiscal and monetary policy must effectively make up for the lack of social needs. " Chen Yanbin said that since the second quarter, macro policies have increased significantly, and they will continue to "actively act" in the second half of the year. Under the escort of macro policies, it is expected that my country's economy will further stabilize and recover in the second half of the year.

"As the epidemic has been effectively controlled, a package of policies and measures are gradually implemented, social needs have been restored, but they have not been fully released in the short term. The current breakthrough of domestic demand is to accelerate the implementation of key projects." The effectiveness of fiscal policies and stable monetary policies will accelerate the implementation of a package of stable growth policies and measures. Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, believes that the meeting's requirements for the stability and optimization of the industrial chain supply chain are consistent, and the deployment of the infrastructure and business environment of the central and western regions reflects that infrastructure will still be the key to stable growth in the second half of the year. Grab.

Wang Jun believes that there is still a lot of room for macro -control, and there are still many directions for macro policies. The first is to implement a package of stable growth policies and measures that have been introduced in the first half of the year to effectively make up for the lack of domestic demand; the second is to reduce financing costs as much as possible and reduce the burden of corporate; third, to introduce specific measures to support the healthy development of the platform as soon as possible, and to be the platform economy as soon as possible, it is the platform economy as the platform economy. Provide a clearer supervision guidelines; the fourth is to compact local government responsibilities, keep the building and stabilize the people's hearts.

Chen Yanbin believes that from the perspective of the macro policy exertion point in the second half of the year, monetary policy must further reduce corporate financing costs, especially for those small and micro enterprises that have a greater impact on the epidemic. Essence At the same time, optimize the economic structure of supply structure, employment structure, and income distribution structure, to clear the blockage points in the policy transmission mechanism, thereby improving the efficiency of macro policy conduction. "In addition, we must continue to use reform and opening up as the driving force for economic development, further enhance the confidence of micro -individuals for the future, and stimulate the willingness of residents' consumption and corporate investment." Chen Yanbin said.

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