Prospective of economic data in July: CPI has increased to 3.1% PPI year -on -year increased.

Our reporter Bao Xingan

The National Bureau of Statistics will release CPI and PPI data in July next Wednesday (August 10). Experts predict that in July, CPI will rise to about 3.1%year -on -year, and PPI will fall to about 5%year -on -year increase.

Since mid -June this year, pork prices have risen rapidly and again affect the CPI nerves. According to the latest monitoring data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in mid -July this year, the price of pigs (outer three yuan) was 22.6 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.3%from the price in early July, and a 37.8%increase from the price in mid -June. According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, on July 29, the average price of pork in the national agricultural wholesale market was 29.27 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.8%from the previous day.

Dongfang Jincheng chief macro analyst Wang Qing told the reporter of the Securities Daily that it was mainly promoted by pork, vegetables, and fruits. A slight decline, but affected by the sinking of the same period last year, the year -on -year increase expanded. It is expected that the CPI will rise to about 3.1%year -on -year in July.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, CPIs rose 2.5%year -on -year in June, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from last month. The expansion of the increase is mainly due to the lower base of the previous year. From a structure, food rose 2.9%year -on -year, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, mainly due to the narrowing effect of pork prices.

"However, driven by the decline in international crude oil prices and the decline in domestic refined oil prices, the increase in non -food CPI in July will narrowing. Other types of products and services will continue to rise slightly. This shows that the overall price level in July will be It is still stable; especially after deducting large fluctuating food and energy prices, the core CPI in July is expected to continue to remain at about 1%, further showing the current price situation as a whole. "Wang Qing said.

Song Xiangqing, deputy dean of the Government Management Research Institute of Beijing Normal University and director of the Industrial Economic Research Center, told the reporter of the Securities Daily that according to the current market situation and the macroeconomic situation, the leading factor affecting the CPI will gradually fall, and the year -on -year impact on the CPI will be by the margin. Pulling into marginal drag. From the analysis of variety categories, with the increase in outdoor travel in July, the consumption of services such as catering, tourism, accommodation and other services will inevitably drive up service prices, which will hedge the decline in the price of some core commodities. Therefore, the possibility of the increase in CPI rising slightly in July, but the CPI is generally stable, basically in line with seasonal trends, and will not have a greater impact on residents' lives.

Wang Qing expects that the price of pork is mainly driven by the rise in pork. In the third quarter, the CPI will increase this year's year -on -year increase, or it will continue to run between 3%and 4%, but it will fall again after the fourth quarter. This means that the domestic price in the second half of the year is generally mild, and will not form a substantial constraint on macro policy operations.

According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in July, affected by factors such as the low season of traditional production, the lack of release of market demand, and the lower prosperity of high energy consumption industries, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0%. Affected by factors such as the price fluctuations of international commodities such as oil, coal, and iron ore, the purchase price index and the factory price index of the main raw materials were 40.4%and 40.1%, respectively, down 11.6 and 6.2 percentage points from the previous month.

Song Xiangqing said that July is the traditional off -season of the consumer market. Due to the hot weather, except for water projects and summer products, most products have weak consumption emotions, and market demand mainly needs to be maintained. At the same time, the commodity commodities are affected by the international market, and the price fluctuates greatly, leading to the increase in market watching. Therefore, the market activity of the consumer goods and industrial products is suppressed, and some markets even produce seasonal resistance, forming production capacity release and cautiousness of terminal buyers' procurement mentality, resulting in a decline in the prices and factory price indexes of the main raw materials.

"Under the shadow of the European and American economy, the price of international commodities such as crude oil, iron ore, and copper has experienced a wave of declines, and domestic steel and coal prices have also declined." Wang Qing said that it is expected that PPI will fall to 5 in July to 5 to 5 year -on -year. At about %, the increase decreased by 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, which will continue in the second half of the year. The rise of PPI is faster, on the one hand, it will significantly reduce the cost pressure of small and medium -sized enterprises in small and medium -sized enterprises in the second half of the year.

In Song Xiangqing's view, the basic support of the high -level operation of PPI is still strong, but the situation of continuing to explore in some areas is also obvious. It is expected that the PPI trend in July will remain basically stable.

Song Xiangqing suggested that investing in investment, using projects as pioneers, and investing in projects to stabilize the economic market to ensure the basic balance of supply and demand for major consumer goods and industrial products, so that CPI and PPI can be reasonable to be able to stabilize the economy and protect employment. In the interval.

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