[Circle depth] Solding the tide to swipe the foundation of the US dollar hegemony

[Global Times Special Reporter Yingchen Global Times reporter Zhao Juezhen] Editor's words: We are witnessing the tremendous changes in the international monetary system and the global financial pattern? Many countries have recently sold U.S. bonds in large numbers. Russia, India and other actively build a non -US dollar settlement system, and Israel has promoted more diversified foreign exchange reserves -under the influence of the Fed's radical interest rate hikes and the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine military conflict, The actions of de -US dollarization of the United States have continued to accelerate. "Are we witnessing the beginning of the global US dollar?" This is a question raised by many media. Rogov at Harvard University of Economics predicts that the dominant position of the US dollar in the global financial system is likely to end in 20 years.

The lips are cold, and the operation of multi -country action is accelerated

On July 27, the Fed announced that it was 75 basis points for interest rate hikes, which is the fourth rate hike of the agency this year. The Federal Reserve has repeatedly raised interest rates this year, exacerbating developing countries with heavy debt and other debt in Sri Lanka. The risk of the global market shock in the global market, and the outbreak of the Russian -Ukraine conflict, the United States' "weaponization" and sanctioning Russia in the United States made countries deeply feel cold and welcomed by the US dollar.

Integrated tide of US dollars in selling

One of the performances of the acceleration of the US dollar operations of various countries is to sell US debt in large quantities. According to foreign media statistics, the global US bond reserve has continued to decline in the past two years, and has fallen to the lowest level after June this year. In May of this year, overseas official institutions such as central banks and sovereignty wealth funds around the world sold the size of US $ 34.1 billion in US bonds, refreshing the largest monthly selling scale since the outbreak of the new US crown pneumonia.

As the largest holding country of U.S. debt, Japan has reduced its holdings for 3 consecutive months. The US debt held in May fell to US $ 12128 trillion, a decrease of $ 5.7 billion month -on -month. As the second largest overseas debt country in the United States, China's US debt held in May to US $ 980.8 billion, a decrease of US $ 22.6 billion month -on -month, the first time since May 2010, less than $ 1 trillion. In addition, Ireland, which holds the seventh position in the US debt and Canada, 12th in May, reduced its holdings of US $ 20.3 billion and $ 9.4 billion in May, respectively.

Among some countries' foreign exchange reserves currency, the proportion of the US dollar has also decreased. The "COFER) report released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently announced that in the fourth quarter of 2021, the market share of the US dollar in the global central bank's international reserve decreased from 59.15%in the previous quarter to 58.81 %, A new low in 26 years. In addition, since this year, the United States allies Israel include yen and other foreign exchange reserve currencies. Earlier, Israel's foreign exchange reserve currency was only US dollar, euro, and pound.

Multi -countries use their domestic currencies for international trade settlement

After the outbreak of Russia and Ukraine, the United States frozen hundreds of billions of dollars in Russia's reserve assets. Russia, which has been hit, and other countries who are worried about being sanctioned by the United States, jointly promote the use of non -US dollars for international trade settlement. On July 26, the Iranian Economic Minister said that it has been confirmed that it will no longer use US dollar transactions in economic and commercial trade between Iran and Russia. India has also negotiated with Russia to bypass the US dollar and promote the use of rupees and rubles for trade settlement. According to the US "Congress" report, after the US sanction of Russia, many countries have doubts about the continued use of US dollars for international trade settlement, including BRICS countries, and these countries' GDP (GDP) accounted for 24 globally. %above.

Some international organizations also plan to promote currency settlement in countries in the region. Gruzjev, deputy minister of the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Russia, said recently that the financial departments of the SCO countries are reaching an agreement on gradually increasing the share chart of their currencies in mutual settlement. Former Brazil President Lula, who aimed at the October election this year, recently said that he hopes to create a digital currency "Sur" in Latin America, "because we cannot continue to rely on the US dollar."

Looking for SWIFT substitution system

After the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine conflict, in order to destroy the Russian economy, Western countries such as the United States kicked Moscow out of the Global Bank of Financial Communications Association (SWIFT) payment system, which further accelerated Russia's action to replace the SWIFT system.

The Russian satellite news agency said on July 27 that Russia and Iran are establishing a joint bank payment system. Some senior Iranian officials said that Iraqi and Russia actually reached a "very good agreement", and on this basis, foreign exchange transactions between the two countries will be completed. Earlier, Russian presidential assistant Aleoshkin revealed that the Russian government plans to establish a foreign economic and trade system to pay for payment through the SWIFT system when conducting international trade. He said that Russia is currently conducting new mechanisms for consultation and development with countries such as Turkey. In fact, after Russia suffered Western sanctions in 2014, Russia was seeking to establish a SWIFT alternative system to launch a Russian financial information transmission system SPFS. As of June this year, 70 financial institutions from 12 countries have access to the SPFS system.

In addition to Russia and Iran, the Bank of India launched a new mechanism for international trade settlement with India and rupees on July 11, and announced that the mechanism took effect immediately. The five major ASEAN economies reached a consensus in July this year, and planned to establish a regional integration payment network in order to bypass the US dollar to conduct foreign exchange settlement directly. Cambodia's "Khmer Times" recently reported that after the US sanctions Russia, more than 20 countries have established an independent financial liquidation system, and bilateral or small multilateral payment and settlement systems are forming. Once the new payment settlement pattern is formed, the proportion of the US dollar in the international payment settlement will further decline. Decoration will be the main consideration for the selection of payment settlement channels in various countries, which will accelerate the reconstruction of the international monetary system and global financial order. "What speed will the US dollar lose its position, I can't be sure. But it is clear that the process of de -US dollar globalization has begun and cannot be stopped." Said Volokin, chairman of the Russian country Duma (lower courtyard). The former chief economist of Economics and International Monetary Fund (IMF) at Harvard University, Rogov, predicts that the dominant position of the US dollar is likely to end within 20 years.

From the euro, to "Sukre", to PAPSS

"The US dollar is our currency, but it is your problem." After the establishment of the US dollar hegemony, the words of former US Treasury Secretary Connery were constantly verified.

The United States has been harvested global wealth through the US dollar hegemony. When entering the interest rate reduction cycle, the United States US dollar flows to the world through purchasing global goods or foreign investment to promote global asset prices, and US capital can obtain a large number of value -added returns. When entering the interest rate hike cycle, a large amount Return to return to the United States, while the US dollar outflows usually appear currency depreciation, the cost of repayment of US dollar debt has increased significantly, and asset prices fell; when they enter the interest rate cut cycle again, American investors can hold US dollar low -interest loans and easily acquire other countries in other countries. High -quality assets of price plunge.

In the 1970s and 1980s, the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate hikes caused Latin American countries to fall into a debt crisis, bringing them "lost ten years". After the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis in 1997, South Korea was in crisis due to the lack of foreign exchange debt, and at this time the United States used IMF to cricket South Korea's wool. IMF provides short -term liquidity and foreign exchange to South Korea, but one of the conditions is that South Korea must open up the domestic market and allow European and American capital to enter South Korea. The approach to the United States has led many Korean companies to be controlled by European and American capital, and these Korean companies have made money to European and American capital.

The above tragedy may be repeated in the near future. The analysis of Hudson, a professor of economics at the University of Missouri at the University of Missouri, said that the Federal Reserve has continued to tighten the monetary policy, and the rise in oil and food prices may cause some developing countries to go bankrupt and forced them to sell them to American investors. Public assets. Hudson said the United States is implementing the monetary policy of bankruptcy countries through the Federal Reserve.

"The world's bitter dollar hegemony is long", in this context, de -US dollarization is not "new trend". In the past few decades, many countries have used various means to try to reduce the risks of the US dollar and the international financial system controlled by the United States to their own country.

The euro, born in 1999, has been highly hoped. When the European Union launched the euro, economists want to know whether it can challenge the US dollar hegemony. Although there are currently 19 countries that have joined the euro area and the euro has accounted for about 20%of the global foreign exchange reserves, the status of the euro is still far away from the US dollar. This can be seen from the complaint of the President Juncker in the 2018 European Commission: the EU as a large energy import household, with only about 2%of energy imports from the United States, 80%of energy imports are settled in the US dollar. This Really ridiculous!

The reason why the road to challenge the US dollar is so difficult, in addition to the defects of the euro itself, it is also related to the US dollar to suppress the euro to maintain the status of the US dollar. A few months after the birth of the euro, the United States -led NATO launched the Kosovo war, causing a large amount of capital to quickly escape from Europe and pour into the United States and other places. It has always been analyzed that the Kosovo war is also a Washington indirect financial war on the euro.

Although the euro failed to shake the status of the US dollar, in all parts of the world, the attempts to rely on the US dollar by unified currency or reached a currency settlement agreement in the region have not stopped. Since this century, Latin American countries have tried to create unified currencies many times, including the Bolivar Alliance in the Americas in 2010 to use the unified currency mechanism "Sukre". In 2010, Sukre first appeared in a virtual currency in a transaction between Ecuador and Venezuela. The use of the currency reached its peak in 2012, and the relevant trade value was nearly 1.066 billion US dollars, but this number continued to shrink.

With the improvement of integration, African countries have also explored the establishment of their own unified currency and settlement systems in recent years. In January of this year, the Pan -non -Payment Settlement System (PAPSS) started in Ghana. This system allows buyers in African countries to pay with their domestic currencies, and sellers in another country collect money with their domestic currencies. However, according to local media reports, the PAPSS system needs to be piloted in the West African currency area, and it can be gradually promoted after success. In addition, the main user of the Russian SPFS system is Russia's domestic institutions, which is difficult to replace Swift. European countries and Iran have previously created trade exchanges (INSTEX), because the obstruction of the United States is almost unable to use. The dollar is "big but not poured"?

In recent years, as the US dollar overdue the US dollar as the credit of the major international currency, the US dollar frequently uses the US dollar as a weapon to sanction other countries, and the call to the US dollar has been increased to a new height. However, according to Bloomberg, several experts from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York believe that the status of the US dollar as the main reserve currency in the world is still quite stable, "nothing can match the world."

Shi Lei, a senior analyst in the field of foreign exchange, told the Global Times reporter that the current de -US dollarization actions of various countries have not yet directly impacted the US dollar hegemonic position. Although the status of the US dollar in the global currency system has indeed declined in recent years, its proportion of global trade settlement, central bank foreign exchange reserves, and global debt prices have ranked first, and it is difficult to quickly replace. In addition, despite the increasing deficiencies of the US economy and the US dollar, the international community has not yet appeared currency that can replace the US dollar.

Many analysts believe that the US dollar has now presented a situation of "too big and unable to fall." Liang Haiming, Dean of the Silk Road Zhigu Research Institute, said that once the status of the US dollar is no longer, the central banks and international investors of other countries will be anxious to get off the US dollar and US dollar assets, causing the US dollar to depreciate sharply. US dollar assets were severely loses. At the same time, central banks and international investors of other countries will buy currencies such as euro, yen, RMB, and related assets as their foreign exchange reserves and new investment targets, which will cause a significant appreciation of related currency exchange rates. Severe frustration.

Rogif, a professor of Harvard University, previously told Bloomberg that for smaller emerging market countries, cryptocurrencies can be used as a substitute for the US dollar. For big powers, if you want to replace the US dollars in the country, a major challenge is needed. Generate "huge network effects".

In an interview with the Global Times reporter, Liang Haiming said that if a country wants to build a currency against the US dollar trial, it is necessary to think about how to build a strong enough credit support to improve the amount and liquidity of the currency. Liang Haiming emphasized that if a certain currency can replace the US dollar, then this currency should be produced under the system of transcending the country, surpassing the economic alliance, and beyond the political alliance, so as to maintain the status of its international currency and continuously improve.

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