What will happen next when the transaction of recession and recovery will happen?

At this time, the central bank's radical interest rate hikes brought the risk of recession. At this time, the "recovery transactions" on A shares were shelved. What is possible risk prompts in August? Although the relevant risks have nothing to do with the market, it varies from stocks.

Author: Ouyang Xiaohong

Figure: Tuwa Creative

Guide

One || was once regarded as a "recovery transaction" by the industry. The A -share market emotions that have been out of independence since the end of April have recently changed. When the A -share market has a cooling emotion, the price of overseas risk assets is heating, and the so -called "recession transaction" is temporarily slow.

的 || Even more severe, high inflation is forcing major central banks around the world to tighten monetary policy, leading to slowing growth; but compared with historical level, the actual interest rate is still low.

Three || "Five new balances" and "five risks" can help investors' unpredictable changes in the market?

The phrase "the price of overseas risk assets is recovered, and the A -share market's transaction emotional emotional cooling" explains the market change in nearly two weeks. Its subtext is: When the recession trading and the recovery transaction go out, what will happen next?

At such a middle year, heavy news in the world followed. The European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve average of 50 basis points, 75 basis points of radical interest rate hikes, the US dollar index fell and risk asset recovery, etc., showed recession transactions; the People's Bank of China maintained a stable monetary policy. 7.28 After the Politburo Conference made a decline in the economy in the second half of the year, the decline in the economic leading indicators implied that the foundation of recovery is yet to be consolidated, and the recovery transactions related to it are also fluctuating.

The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on July 28 requested that "macro policies must actively act as a demand. Fiscal and monetary policy must effectively make up for the lack of social needs. In terms of finance," make good use of local government bond funds and support local governments for use. Better use of special debt limits. "In terms of currency," monetary policy must maintain reasonable liquidity, increase credit support for enterprises, and make good use of policy banks to build investment funds for new credit and infrastructure construction. "

On July 31, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the PMI (manufacturing procurement manager index) returned to the expansion range in June fell to the contraction range in July. For example, the PMI in July was 49.0%, a decrease of 1.2%month -on -month, and was below the critical point.

Zhang Aoping, Dean of the Institute of Extraction, said that PMI, as the advanced indicator of economic operation, dropped to the contraction range in July (March 49.5%, April 47.4%, May 49.6%, June 50.2%), which reflects my country's economy The level of prosperity has fallen, and the foundation of restoration still needs to be stable. At present, the economy is in a key window for stabilizing and recovering. Economic operations in the second half of the year still face large uncertainty. Especially in the market subject, the recovery of small and medium -sized enterprises is still insufficient, and the key "pain point" problem has not yet been relieved.

What key "pain points" question is foreseeable in the market? On the last trading day in July, the three major stock indexes of A shares closed down, of which the Shanghai Index received 3253.24 (-0.89%). Essence

However, on the first trading day in August, after two months of rebound, A shares that entered the rest period rose across the board in July. Among them, the Shanghai Index received 3259.96 (+0.21%). (+1.20%), 2733.47 (+2.37%). On the same day, the net inflow of northbound funds was 2.398 billion yuan, and the net purchase was 6.913 billion in the past 5th, but the net bought at -3742 million on the 10th on the 10th. The top three large inflow sections of the northern direction of "photovoltaic concepts", "semi -annual report", "silicon energy" and other northbound funds.

而当日的行业主力净流入板块为：汽车整车（+28.30亿）、小金属（+9.12亿）、通用设备（+8.67亿）；化学制药（-10.78亿）、电力（-13.27亿）、 Securities (-1333 billion), etc. are the main outflow of the industry.

Looking back at July, according to Guohai Securities analysis, the domestic real estate market sales have fallen again since July, and the funds of real estate companies still face large pressure. The next recent market risk appetite has fallen.

Throughout the A -share, its main stock index valuation has declined as a whole, and the valuation of building materials, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing, and building decoration industries has declined. In the past two weeks, the valuation of some industries in the A -share industry has declined. The valuation of the automotive, beauty care and machinery and equipment industries has a large increase, while the valuation of building materials, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing, and building decoration has declined, and the valuation of the building materials industry has decreased by 5.7%.

In the past two weeks, the exponential turnover rate has continued to decline. According to Guohai Securities observations, as of July 27, the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and GEM index were 0.59%, 0.28%, and 1.17%, respectively. 19 BP, 15bp. Affected by the recent domestic epidemic and "suspension of loan storms" disturbances, market risk appetite has been further suppressed, and the turnover rate continues to decline.

In other words, it was once regarded as a "recovery transaction" by the industry. The A -share market emotions that have been out of independence since the end of April have recently changed. When the A -share market has a cooling emotion, the price of overseas risk assets is heating, and the so -called "recession transaction" is temporarily slow.

The reason for its recent explanatoryness is that on July 28, the Fed FOMC stated that the benchmark interest rate was raised by 75 basis points to 2.25% -2.50%, which met market expectations and reiterated "high attention" to inflation risks. The Federal Public Market Committee " The determination "to restore the inflation rate to 2%of the goal, considering that continuous interest rate hikes may be appropriate. At the same time, the Fed Chairman Powell said that as the pressure of economic growth has gradually emerged, the interest rate becomes more restrictive, and the pace of slow interest rate hikes may be appropriate at some point, but whether it will be implemented again in the future to implement ultra -conventional plus addition Rest depends on economic data, and it will take a bigger action if necessary. In terms of prudential, Powell's speeches have both eagle pigeons. The problem is that the market is more willing to interpret it as "the pace of interest rate hikes in the Federal Reserve or gradually slow down", so US stocks have risen for several days.

According to the data, as of July 27, the US dollar index fell to 106.49, a decrease of 1.44%compared to the previous two weeks. In the past two weeks, euros, pounds, and yen have different levels of value -added. Compared with two weeks ago, the euro, pounds, and yen exchange rates increased by 0.82%, 1.31%, and 0.73%, respectively.

On August 1, the US dollar index was reported at 105.73 (-0.16%), the euro was reported to the US dollar 1.0230 (+0.10%), and the offshore RMB was reported at 6.7587 (+0.09%); It was reported to 2.688 (+1.43%) and 2.931 (+2.55%). The yield of US debt yields began to rise, but the two were still upside down.

Just in July, what about the trend of the Chinese and foreign markets? Data show that the Shanghai Index, the Shenzhen Index and the GEM index fell 4.3%, 4.9%, and 5%in July, respectively, and the Hang Seng Index was 7.8%. Overseas perspective, except for Russia RTS fell 15.4%in a single month, the stock indexes of other major countries have risen. The three major US stock index Dow Jones Industrial Index, the S & P and the Nasdaq index rose 6.7%and 9.1 in July single month, respectively %And 12.3%.

In terms of asset price impact, Zhang Yu, the chief macro analyst of Huading Securities, is "a temporary decline transaction." The logic is: First, the current asset price is still in the second stage of transaction "profitability", tending to benefit all kinds of risk assets. In a round of a complete RMB interest rate hike cycle, the trading logic of U.S. stocks and US bonds can be divided into three sections: the valuation of volume and price increases, the price of volume declines, and the double decline in volume and price. At present, it is still in the stage of profit toughness that rises and rises. The decline transactions are temporarily slow. The profit tough transactions return to the stage, which is favorable for various types of risk assets.

Secondly, "because the current inflation is extremely wide, it has been the same as in 1980, which means that the risk of the future inflation that exceeds the market's unanimous expectations is still large. Our calculation also shows that the US CPI will still run more than 7%year -on -year year -on -year operation. . In this context, if the US economy shows a certain toughness, then the Federal Reserve monetary policy in the fourth quarter also has the risk of returning to a more eagle path. "Zhang Yu believes.

High inflation? High inflation! The major central banks around the world are suffering from inflation pressure; both the President of the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve Chairman have vowed to pull the record of the record of 2%. Although the latter has not seen the inflation resistance of 2.25-2.5%of the hikes four times; economic growth has slowed down, and even signs of recession.

And is the Fed that admits to the underestimation of inflation is still making mistakes? Following the ability to underestimate inflation and overestimate interest rate hikes to suppress inflation, Tianfeng Securities believes that from the perspective of the minutes of the interest rate meeting, the Fed may be making a third error -too dependence on employment indicators as the basis for judging the economic situation. As a result, the time to estimate the recession.

In fact, the U.S. economy has emerged in the first half of the year. The technical recession of "negative growth of the economy for two consecutive quarters" has appeared. However, the definition of the official decline in the United States is "NBER decline", and employment is one of the important dimensions of NBER definition of decline. The prosperity of the labor market shows that it is far from the definition of NBER decline. Therefore, Powell said in her speech after the press conference that "does not think that the United States is going to decline."

However, this time is different. Tianfeng Securities believes that the shortage of labor supply is not temporary, but a structural and persistent problem. "Don't underestimate the changes in employment forms for the diversion of the traditional labor market."

If you jump out to see the stagflation cycle and structural problems, there is another set of logic.

Swiss reinsurance SIGMA's latest report believes that after half a century in the 1970s, the market once again worried about the risk of stagnation. After the rapid and strong recovery of the new crisis, the global major economies are facing the dual challenges that have been facing high inflation and economic growth for decades. At present, the Ukraine conflict is expected to push up the global consumer price index (CPI) and further weaken the growth momentum. The impact of conflicts has been reflected as the skyrocketing price of commodity. Some emerging market countries that highly depend on grain imports have become more fragile in terms of grain safety.

Even more severe, high inflation is forcing major central banks to tighten monetary policy, leading to slowing growth; but compared with historical level, the actual interest rate is still low.

Switzerland reinsurance has raised inflation forecasts for various regions, while growth expectations are reduced. Therefore, in the benchmark situation, the outlook for the global economy can be summarized as the "stagnation" characteristics. However, this stagnation is a temporary condition driven by periodic factors, rather than structural stagnation in the 1970s. The current economic situation is significantly different from that time, and the slowdown of growth will eventually reduce inflation. However, uncertainty is still high and risks have fallen down. For example, the Fed may be difficult to guide the economy to achieve soft landing. In an uncertain environment, scenario analysis is an important way to evaluate risks. The Sigma report analyzes three other scenes other than the benchmark scene. Two of them are pessimistic scenes, the global recession and the stagnation of the 1970s, and the other is an optimistic scene. In the next 12-18 months, the probability of two downward scenarios is 25-140%, and the probability of global recession is higher. The current periodic stagnation may be transformed into structural stagnation and long -term existence, but Rui re -believes that this is only a "tail risk." Therefore, "the current stagnation is a periodic rather than a structural" SIGMA report.

"Global stagnation may far exceed expectations." Wang Yongli, former vice president of Bank of China. He pointed out that since the second half of 2021, the price of commodities in the international market has reversed a sharp decline in the global outbreak of the new crown epidemic in 2020 and began to accelerate the rebound. By March 2022, the global inflation is formed more than expected, and developed economies such as the United States and Europe have been formed. The United States and other countries have been forced to urgently adjust the macro policies and shifted the target to high anti -inflation.

However, due to various reasons, global economic growth has faced many challenges, and the central bank's interest rate hikes shrinkage has increased the downward pressure on the economy. The great shock with the society, promoting the severe changes or even severe division of the world structure, we must be highly vigilant about this. "Wang Yongli said.

So, when the transactions of recession and recovery are temporarily out, how to balance the A -share investment strategy?

The latest research report of CITIC Securities also pointed out that in August, with the policy expectations, corrections of profit expectations, gradual overseas decline, and adjustment of institutional positions, A shares will continue the high fluctuation state since July, and gradually form five new balances in five aspects. ; In terms of configuration, it is recommended to pay attention to the segmentation of growth and manufacturing, the theme of policy catalysis, and medicine for valuation repair.

Here, as the capital flow in the past two weeks has a net outflow, the scale of net outflow is about 13.450 billion yuan. However, in the past two weeks, the funds have increased their funds in the north.

First of all, CITIC Securities believes that the policy has always been very rational and strong in terms of economic growth this year. It is expected to correct the preliminary market policies and form a new balance with the central policy. Secondly, the fact that economic growth can reach the target's expectations will be revised, and a new balance is formed with the economic goals of "striving to achieve the best results". Thirdly, the interim report disclosure enters the second half, and the profit expectations of the A -share industry will form a new balance with valuation after the adjustment of the profitability of the A -share industry. Fourth, with the disclosure of CPI and growth data, the Fed's tightening expectations will also form a new balance between inflation pressure and recession risk.

Finally, various types of expected adjustments affect investors 'behavior, and domestic institutions' positions and foreign global allocation will also reach a new balance. The process of the formation of the new balance in the above five aspects is also the process of re -condensing the consensus on the market. During the period, the capital game has intensified, and the market fluctuations are still large.

Guolian Securities believes that the main factors in the current market are fundamental variables. From the current fundamental perspective, short -term or still difficult to improve. "Insufficient market demand is the main difficulty facing the current manufacturing enterprises. The foundation of the development of manufacturing needs to be stable."

Among them, real estate may still be the main drag of the current economy. In June, real estate investment fell 5.4%, but the sales area and sales amount fell by 22.2%and 28.9%, respectively. The cumulative decline in land purchase area and transaction price was close to 50%. The real estate industry is currently in the negative feedback of expected decline, falling house prices, downward sales, and weak investment.

Not only is investment, but downstream demand also shows a weak trend. Even the price of semiconductors that had been out of stock before showing a faster downside; displaying the characteristics of insufficient terminal demand.

In this regard, looking forward to August, from the perspective of Guolian Securities, "recession trading" may still be the main theme, high -end manufacturing and other theme investment may win. Its suggestions are concerned about several main lines: first, the semi -annual report pre -increase and high prosperity track, such as downstream components and energy storage with increased new energy volume, as well as the national defense military sector that is also catalyzed by high prosperity and events; the second is the low growth growth. Plates, such as communication, environmental protection, media, computer, etc.; third, high -end manufacturing sectors such as midstream machinery and equipment with a slowdown in upstream price increases and costs are relieved; Investment opportunities for precious metal sectors.

In addition, under the weak market, theme investment may be more popular in the market. For example, in July, high -end manufacturing and new energy sectors such as integrated die -casting, robotic index, photovoltaic inverter, charging pile, and industrial 4.0 have attracted much attention. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to this.

At this time at this time, the "7.28" Politburo meeting of the European and American central banks may bring the risk of recession at this time. The speed goal can be faded, but at the moment when the economy is not allowed, the independence market and the "recovery transaction" of A shares have also been put on hold by the market. What are the possible risk prompts in August? Although the relevant risks have nothing to do with the market, it varies from stocks. The primary risk is the "performance thunder", as the intermediate report period will be ushered in in August. At present, 4724 listed companies are planning to officially disclose the 2022 interim in August, accounting for 97.72%. According to the analysis of CITIC Securities, more than 1,700 companies have disclosed the performance forecast of the interim report. The pre -joy rate (the type of performance forecast is slightly increased, turned losses, renewal and pre -increase) to 42.08%.

Secondly, the risk is the "high -level stock callback". The third risk is "delisting". As of now, 43 listed companies in A -shares have been forcibly delisted in 2022 -hitting a record high in the same period and higher than any past year. The risk is "lifting the ban". In August 2022, a total of 142 listed companies in the market involved restricted shares to lift the ban. The market value of more than 475 billion yuan was lifted, which was the second high -end lift month during the year.

CITIC Securities suggested that from the perspective of individual stocks, before the end of August, 13 shares of 13 shares such as China Guang Nuclear, China Telecom, Shanghai Farmers and Commercial Bank, and Berchu Electronics exceeded 10 billion yuan, and the pressure of lifting the ban was greater. The risk five is "reduction of holdings". Since early July, a total of 350 important shareholders of the market have released more than 360 reduction plans. Based on the latest closing price, the upper limit amount is more than 43 billion yuan.

Can such "five new balances" and "five risks" help investors' unpredictable changes in the market?

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