What does it mean to have a negative population in my country?

The negative population growth is mainly based on developed countries, such as Japan, South Korea, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden and other countries. These developed countries are in the post -industrial period, the economic growth is relatively slow, the population birth rate is low, and the population of birth is low. Not high.

On August 1, the National Health and Health Commission published an article in the Journal of Seeking, saying that the population growth rate of my country's population has slowed significantly, and the Chinese population will enter the negative growth stage during the "14th Five -Year Plan" period.

According to the data released by the Magazine of "Qiushi", in 2021, the average number of children in Chinese childbearing age intended to have 1.64 children, and the willingness to fertilize continued to decline. Among them, there were only 1.54 and 1.48 for post -90s and post -00 groups.

The former deputy dean of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Cai Yan said at the China Wealth Forum at the end of July that the Chinese population is expected to reach its peak this year or next year, and then enter the negative growth of the population. This is not a periodic, but a long -term trend.

Data show that in 2021, the net increase in population in my country was only 480,000, and the birth and death population reached 10.62 million and 10.14 million, respectively. In 2022, the population of birth may fall below 10 million. As the birth population declines, the negative growth of the population will come.

At present, the post -90s and post -00s groups are no longer the problem of low fertility, but the problem of not getting married. Economist Ren Zeping stands up and says: The birth of the baby depends on the post -75s and the post -85s, the post -90s and the post -00s are even married. If you don't end, why talk about fertility? This view caused heated discussion for a while.

What does this mean for the first time in my country to recognize the population of the population? It is undeniable that the negative population growth will have an impact on many industries.

The impact on the real estate industry

In the real estate market, there has always been a saying that housing prices are in the short term, looking at the land in the middle period, and the population for a long time. The impact of negative population growth on the real estate industry is huge, which will further intensify the "polarization" of house prices.

In the future, there will be a large number of cities' housing prices that do not have investment value. In fact, this trend has emerged, mainly cities with long -term population out of population, which is distributed in third- and fourth -tier cities. In the future, only first -tier cities and some strong second -tier cities have the value of investment, and the era of buying a house to make a fortune has been gone.

my country's population has entered the era of stock, which cities can attract more population flow, and there are a large number of industries that can promote economic growth, so real estate in these cities has the future.

On the contrary, house prices in a large number of third- and fourth -tier cities will not only increase their housing prices, but will decline. In the future, cities like Hegang will gradually increase, and houses in a large number of cities will only have residential attributes.

Which industries will have a greater impact?

In the past, industries with demographic dividends as growth points will be affected. For example, e -commerce, the Internet and other industries, the Internet has gone through extensive development of more than 20 years. With my country's huge demographic dividend, it has achieved rapid growth and becoming the most profitable industry. one.

Why did Ma Yun, Liu Qiangdong, Huang Yan retreat one by one? One of the important factor is that the industry dividend has touched the ceiling. Since 2021, the profits of major Internet giants have almost declined, and the growth rate of user scale has slowed down. As the population grows negative, the competition of Internet companies will be more intense. In the era of "stock", who can get a lower cost and larger traffic will stand out in future competition.

In addition, the mother and infant industry will also be impacted. The negative population growth means that the population of birth will continue to decline, and the market size will gradually narrow. Only the mother and baby enterprises or stores that are professional and flow operation will have the opportunity to develop.

On the contrary, with the advent of the negative population growth, the aging trend of population has intensified, the major health industries and pension -related industries will develop rapidly, and the market capacity will increase further.

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