Will Pelosi really visit Taiwan?What is the purpose of playing "wipe the ball"?

Straight news: Perosi issued a statement issued before the visit to Asia, saying that the United States is committed to conducting strategic contact in the "Indo -Pacific" area. Does this mean that Pelosi has a strong "Indo -Pacific Strategy" factor? Especially in the new horse itinerary, do we have to pay special attention to the words and deeds of its separation of China ASEAN relations?

Xiong Lili, a researcher at the National Institute of Foreign Open to Foreign Economic and Trade: From Trump to Biden's two US presidents, the United States is strongly promoting the so -called "Indo -Pacific Strategy". It is the alliance system in the Asia -Pacific region that we used to say before. This alliance system includes both Northeast Asian countries such as Japan and South Korea and Southeast Asian countries like Singapore. We can see the Asia -Pacific trip to Pelosi, which not only visits Northeast Asian countries like Japan and South Korea, but also go to Southeast Asian countries such as Xinma.

It can be said that Pelosi's Asia -Pacific trip is to continue to promote substantially for Biden's "Indo -Pacific Strategy". It is hoped that through the visits to related countries such as the US -breaking politicians like the Speakers, the relevant countries can further participate in the so -called "Indo -Pacific Strategy" in the United States, thereby further consolidating and strengthening the United States' alliance system in this region.

It is particularly noteworthy here that we can see that Biden has been in office for more than a year, and the United States has paid attention to the increase in Southeast Asian countries. On the one hand, Southeast Asian countries are in a very important strategic position and are above the important transportation important traffic in the Asia -Pacific region to the Atlantic. At the same time, Southeast Asian countries are also neighbors of China. Thousands of close connections.

Another important aspect is the Southeast Asian region, including the Southern China Sea, and is also a relatively complicated region that is relatively complicated at present. Therefore, from the perspective of the United States, how to operate this area well is essential for creating an effective alliance system around China.

At the same time, we can see that the relationship between China and Southeast Asian countries in recent years is actually increasingly closer. On the one hand, the Economic Belt of the Maritime Silk Road Economic Belt is effectively promoting. Still cooperation in other aspects is actually developing in a positive and healthy direction.

It can be said that under the guidance of such a set of peripheral diplomatic philosophy of "sincerity", the cooperative relationship between China and Southeast Asian countries in recent years has been stable and stable. From the perspective of the United States, the development of the relationship between China and Southeast Asian countries will form a short board of the so -called "Indo -Pacific Strategy" in the United States. Therefore, we can see that the Biden government has continued to strengthen the work on Southeast Asia since taking office. In their opinion, Southeast Asia is actually a major shortcoming of the "Indo -Pacific Strategy" in the United States, and this short board must be supplemented.

Therefore, we can see the Asia -Pacific trip to Pelosi. Although it attaches great importance to Northeast Asian countries like Japan, the highlight is still in Southeast Asia. We can see a series of activities in Southeast Asia. Although it cannot be said that it is directly to dismantle the cooperative relationship between China and Southeast Asian countries, but more or less intentional or unintentionally they will try their best to be separated from China and Southeast Asian countries. relation.

Because in their opinion, only the relationship between China and Southeast Asian countries, or to form a certain constraint on the current cooperation between China and Southeast Asian countries, can truly effectively promote the so -called "seal of the United States in this region in this region. Too strategic.

Direct news: Plussey's current itinerary also includes Malaysia and Japan and South Korea, excluding Taiwan, Taiwan, which has been speculated before, but does this mean that the risks of Perlis and the negative impact on Sino -US relations are reduced. Is it?

Xiong Lili, a researcher at the National Institute of Foreign Open to Foreign Economic and Trade: We can see the Asia -Pacific trip to Pelosi, although the focus on nominal or form is indeed from Japan and South Korea to Southeast Asian countries. "Too strategic" key areas, but recently, more hotspots in the news have highlighted whether they will visit Taiwan. On the one hand, we can see that Perosi really wants to use this Asia -Pacific trip to create momentum to create some influences, which does not rule out explosive influences such as visiting Taiwan.

In Pelosi, if she is the top three major politicians in the United States, she can conduct so -called visits to Taiwan. Of course, for her political reputation in her domestic conservative camp, for this political image in her own eyes, There seems to be a big bonus. Therefore, we can see that Pelosi has never made public denial or explicitly denying that the Asia -Pacific trip will not come to Taiwan, or she does not tell this issue particularly clearly, or not. Therefore, we can see that Pelosi is still very possibilities. Using various forms to use what she feels, it is more suitable and more flexible to conduct so -called visits to Taiwan, so as to achieve this political purpose.

But on the other hand, as we all know, the Taiwan issue is related to China's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and the core interests of China. If, like Pelosi, as far as its political status and political influence are concerned, the top three major politicians in the United States conduct so -called visits to Taiwan, which must be an extremely violated against Chinese sovereignty and territorial integrity. Serious challenges of US relations. The United States is actually unwilling to face such serious consequences, so we can see that whether it is President Bayeng himself or the US military, all kinds of news are constantly released. So support, in fact, for this consideration, after all, for the Bayeng government, although China is a competitor, if only Perlis wants to make a political explosion to add points to its own political image, In order to create serious trouble for Sino -US relations, it does not meet the predictions of the Bayeng government for Sino -US relations. Therefore, we can see the current Pelosi, on the one hand, do not deny that we will go to Taiwan, but on the other hand, we do not know that we will go to Taiwan. At present, she is playing the ball, that is, constantly testing the bottom line of the Chinese side, and trying out where the tolerance of the Chinese side is. In Pelosi's view, it can even be said that behind Pelosi, more American politicians see that if you can make a golf -style interview with Taiwan, you can win the so -called political reputation for yourself, and at the same time, it is not at the same time. As for the unprecedented catastrophic consequences to Sino -US relations, in fact, they are the best choice in them.

Of course, for the Chinese side, in fact, it is necessary to convey a clear signal to the United States, large and small politicians in this regard, that is, on the Taiwan issue, you must not test the attitude of the Chinese side without a bottom line, nor can it be in Taiwan in Taiwan. The problem is blindly playing with the fire, and those who play the fire will balize themselves.

Direct News: This time the new Malaysia, Han and Japan visited by Pelosi Asia are all important countries in the chip industry chain. Perlis has tweeted on the way to Asia, mentioning that the "chip and science just passed by the House of Representatives have just passed "Act", does this represent the factors of the chip industry chain supply chain in the United States who want to dominate the region?

Xiong Lili, a researcher at the National Institute of Foreign Open to Foreign Economic and Trade: The US Congress passed the "chip bill" this time. Pelosi can be said to be an important promoter behind the scene. It is necessary for China to strengthen competition, and competition for China may not be as if in the field of tariffs or in the field of goods trade as before. Sino -US trade is definitely not a unilateral gift for who is, and Sino -US trade is actually an objective market law and industrial structure.

Therefore, we can see that the Democratic government of Biden has come to power. For more than this year, in fact, the key direction of competition against China in the economic and trade field has shifted from goods trade to science and technology. The high -tech industry has become the top priority of the worship of the Biden government. We can see that the Biden government actually has more targeted restrictions on China in the chip field, that is, it is absolutely necessary to limit the production of chip production in the most cutting -edge of chip to China, or the cutting -edge chip supply chain can suffer The influence of China may be an important aspect that the Biden government is currently concerned.

But obviously whether President Biden himself or Pelosi, they also know that they only rely on the power of the United States and want to form an overwhelming advantage in China in the chip industry. It includes design, manufacturing, testing, and application links. The United States may be more advantageous in R & D and design. In the subsequent test manufacturing and application links, in many countries in the Asia -Pacific region, from South Korea to Taiwan, they have actually formed a strong advantage.

From the perspective of the Biden government, if it is necessary to be able to win the so -called "chip alliance" in the Asia -Pacific region in the chip field in the chip field in the chip field, it must be able to attract these countries and regions in the Asia -Pacific region to effectively participate in the so -called "chip alliance" in the United States. The advantages of China form a stronger suppression.

We can see this trip to the Asia -Pacific trip to Pelosi. On the one hand, it is of course shouting slogans at the political level to further promote the "Indo -Pacific Strategy" of the Biden government. On the other hand, she really wants to do something practical, that is, to be able to promote the formation of the "chip alliance" that the Bayeng government is thinking as soon as possible, and the formation of the alliance is indeed inseparable from a series of sizes of the United States in the Asia -Pacific region in the Asia -Pacific region Partner's support.

Straight News: Under the background of the "Chip Act", U.S. companies received a notice from the government and were required to restrict chip manufacturing equipment below 14 nanometers to export China. High -tech suppression and defamation of the industrial chain supply chain?

Xiong Lili, a researcher at the National Institute of Foreign Open to Foreign Economic and Trade: We can see the latest action of the Biden government, which clearly shows the direction of the Bayeon government in the high -tech field represented by the chip industry. The inflow of high -tech industries must prevent death. This inflow is not simply prohibiting American companies from investing in China, but from R & D design to test manufacturing applications. The entire industrial chain has strictly blocked China.

From the perspective of the Biden government, only by effectively blocking the cutting -edge chip below 14 nanometers, can we truly be in a high -tech field such as the chip industry and ensure the technical hegemony of the United States, so that the United States can treat the United States in the future to China in China In the competition of science and technology, it will always live in an advantageous position. And this advantage in the field of science and technology is obviously in the eyes of the Bayeng government. It is the most important material basis for the future of the United States for China's competitive advantage. It is also the most basic guarantee for the United States to maintain hegemony permanently. Therefore, we can see that whether the Biden government has previously promoted the "chip bill" or now the chip below 14 nanometers, to strengthen export restrictions on China, in fact, around a basic goal, that is, it can make general significance to China that can make general significance in China. Normal economic and trade exchanges, after all, normal economic and trade exchanges in this general sense are also very important for the United States. Whether it is for American companies, consumers, or inflation rates to the US market, to the US market, and to inflation rates, it is of great significance Essence However, in this general sense of economic and trade exchanges, China has strictly guarded the defense of China in the technology field and strictly guarded China to overtake the United States in the high -tech field.

Taking the chip industry as an example, if chip technology below 14 nanometers flows into China, it will definitely form a huge technical impact for the United States, and the technical hegemony of the United States in this field is likely to be unsustainable. We can see that the overall idea of ​​the Biden government is to strengthen cooperation in areas that the United States thinks it is necessary to cooperate, but if it is regarded as a crucial cutting -edge field in the United States, such as chip technology below 14 nanometers, it must be in China. It is necessary to strictly guard against death. This strict prevention of defense includes not only passing the bill, as well as export restrictions directly through administrative orders. At the same time, it also includes some of the internationally so -called allies to form a so -called technical alliance to strengthen restrictions on China.

We can see that the Biden government has actually sketched a lot in this regard, so they will definitely take more actions in the next step. But in the final analysis, whether the United States can realize the permanently standing at the technical high point that they can realize their minds. From the current point of view, this possibility is still uncertain, after all, other countries, or other so -called partners in the United States, Can you follow the command stick of the Biden government? First of all, there is any question.

On the other hand, China's own technological progress has actually been very prominent in recent years. Although the Bayeng government has spared no effort to maintain its own technical hegemony and maintain its so -called absolute advantage in technology competition with China, but in the future, in the future, in the future There are still many uncertain factors.

Author 丨 Xiong Li Li, researcher at the National Institute of Open Foreign Open to the University of Foreign Economics and Trade University

Edit 丨 Zeng Zijin, Shenzhen Satellite TV direct news leader

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