Yang Delong: my country's economic recovery trend is not changed to focus on core asset investment opportunities

Yang Delong | Cube, everyone talks about column authors

On Monday, the market was ended in July, and the market in August officially kicked off. In July, due to the influence of the factors of the air and the repeated economic growth, a certain number of callbacks appeared. This callback was mainly due to the profit recovery of some sectors with excessive increase in the previous period and the hesitation of market emotions. With the Fed's interest rate hike, the European Central Bank opened its first interest rate hike, which also had a short -term impact on the market. But the trend of recovery has not changed.

The July manufacturing PMI PMI announced by the National Bureau of Statistics was 49%, and the return of Rongku's balance point was 50%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from last month, which shows that the current economic recovery is still weak. The role of policy and monetary policy promotes economic recovery. The non -manufacturing business activity index and the comprehensive PMI output index were 53.8%and 52.5%, respectively, decreased by 0.9 percentage points and 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, respectively. It was located in the expansion range for two consecutive months. In July, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49%was mainly due to the common effects of traditional production off -season, insufficient release of market demand, and lower prosperity of high energy consumption industries. From the perspective of demand, the new order index fell again and fell below the honor line. At the same time, both internal and external need to show both slowing trends. The new export orders fell 2.1 percentage points to 47.4%, and imports fell 2.6 percentage points to 46.9%. It shows that some developed economies showed signs of recession under the pressure of continuous interest rate hikes, which had a certain impact on my country's export trade.

Factors such as the downturn in the domestic real estate market and the weak consumption in the epidemic have also caused domestic demand to a certain extent. From the perspective To the critical point below. The PMI of small enterprises was 47.9%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from last month, and it was still lower than the critical point. The high PMI PMI also shows that the large enterprise is relatively small by the epidemic, while SMEs are greatly affected. Insufficient demand has had a certain impact on all types of enterprises. This also shows that after two quarters of the growth rate declined, although the economy has begun to recover, the process of recovery still has a certain twists and turns, so we still cannot relax. Promote economic growth. The direction of further speed up infrastructure investment in the second half of the year is certain, and it can play a role in stabilizing the economic market. Steady growth is still the most important task at present, and it is the current important policy goal, especially to actively implement policies in expanding demand. In terms of policy, the current fiscal policy is mainly to increase the issuance of special bonds of local governments and expand infrastructure investment. The monetary policy should focus on the support of corporate credit. Stable employment to ensure the steady growth of the real economy, and then it can better promote economic recovery.

As a barometer of the economy, the recent adjustment of the capital market also reflects concerns about the slowdown in economic growth. In the second half of the year, with the rise in economic growth, my country's economy is in the stage of recovery, and it has certain advantages compared to the stasis of the European and American economy. The possibility of continuing to win U.S. stocks and European stocks in the second half of the year in the A -share market is still relatively large. The market adjustment in July has been relatively sufficient. It does not need to be too pessimistic about the market in August. It is a new energy sector such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and wind power with high prosperity. It is still expected to lead the two cities. The consumer sector that had been affected by the epidemic may be promoted by the funds that have fallen by the growth rate of the epidemic. In particular, consumer white horse stocks with brand value have long -term investment value. At present, many consumer white horse stocks have been well adjusted, which is a rare time for layout.

Recently, due to the influence of some Chinese stocks in the pre -delivery list, the Chinese stocks have fallen a lot, which affects the performance of the Hong Kong stock technology Internet sector. Risk has always been an important aspect of the trend of China stocks and the trend of Hong Kong stocks. Investors should pay close attention. On the whole, the current market has gradually entered the phase of shock rebound. Although the rebound process has a certain twists and turns, overall, under the situation of economic recovery, the possibility of a sharp decline in the market is not high, and market adjustment The space is also relatively limited. The important conference held last week released important signals. The macro -general tone is still to consolidate the trend of economic recovery and improve employment and stabilize prices. Fiscal policy must effectively make up for the lack of social needs. Reasonable sex to prevent resolving financial risks. In terms of infrastructure investment, policy banks in the second half of the year have added new loans and infrastructure construction investment funds to become an important source of infrastructure funds. The increase in local special bonds is expected to provide more funds for infrastructure investment. In terms of real estate, emphasizing the need to compact local government responsibilities, keeps intersection, and stabilize people's livelihood. Real estate should make policies due to urban policies, support rigid and improved housing needs, thereby stabilizing investor expectations. In terms of overseas markets, the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hikes raised 75 basis points on schedule. It is mainly to cope with the level of inflation that remains high, and Fed Chairman Powell also released the sound of pigeons at the same time, that is, the pace of interest rate hikes may slow down interest rate hikes in July to reduce the impact on the economy. The Fed's continuous interest rate hikes have a great impact on the growth of the US economy, and the Fed will try its best to avoid economic recession. In the second quarter of this year, GDP has fallen for the second consecutive decline, reaching the standard of "technical recession" recognized by some economists. Of course, there are still relatively different views on whether the US economy has fallen into decline, but the economy The activity has declined significantly, spreading to the entire economic field and lasted for more than months, which will still affect the Fed's monetary policy, which may slow down the pace of the Federal Reserve. Under the circumstances of economic recession, U.S. stocks are still not optimistic in the second half of the year.

Responsible editor: Shi Jian | Audit: Li Zhen | Director: Wan Junwei

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