Next week: 11 new shares to purchase 40 restricted stocks face lifting the ban

Our reporter Zhao Ziqiang this week, the A -share market has fallen, and the three major stock indexes have fallen in weekly. The Shanghai Index is slightly strong, and the funds in the north direction have also flowed in. From the perspective of the month, the three major stock indexes in July also showed a decline, with a monthly decrease of 4%, and the north -directional funds sold 21.069 billion yuan. What is the trend of A shares behind the shock? Where is the investment opportunity? Regarding the trend of A shares in the future, CICC believes that since July, under the influence of the internal and external market environment, A shares have gradually rebounded from unilaterally, transitioning to two -way fluctuations and overall weakening trends. We believe that this is mainly due to several reasons: on the one hand, the potential and repeated epidemic may make the stable growth policy be restricted and the elasticity of the growth of growth has weakened. The capital chain may still face certain pressure. Recently, this issue has received widespread attention and policy is exerting force, but it may still be relieved and still need to continue to pay attention. In addition, there will be "stagnation" after overseas "swelling". The impact may not be completely passed. Under the common effect of these factors, absolute returns in the Chinese market may face certain challenges. Looking back, in the context of domestic growth and recovery, it is necessary to pay attention to the improvement of policy implementation on the improvement of economic fundamentals and the impact of recent risk events. In particular, the situation facing the real estate industry has increased the necessity of decisive treatment. Dongguan Securities believes that after a technical point of view, after the market rebounded sharply in May and June, inertial shock adjustments occurred in July, and the Shanghai Index lost 3,300 points, and the volume of the two cities could fall. Considering the large increase in the early stage, the recent adjustment is a normal pressure release without excessive pessimism, and the trend at the end of the month has gradually stabilized. The current economy is still in the recovery trend, and the policy is also actively landing. It is expected that the index will continue to fluctuate the trend in August and pay attention to the amount of attention. Can change and flow from northbound capital. In terms of investment opportunities, CICC believes that the market has obvious absolute revenue in the second half of the year still has certain challenges, and we must pay attention to grasping market rhythm and flexibility. In terms of configuration, we still focus on areas with low valuations, low correlation with macro, or policy support. Recently, upstream prices have been greatly adjusted, and gradually began to pay attention to the repair of the middle and lower reaches industries. After the growth style has recently rebounded, the cost performance is weakened, and it is necessary to comprehensively pay attention to the storm and valuation for structural configuration. 1. The A-share market of the stock market: This week (July 25-July 29, the same below), the three major stock indexes of A-share fell. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell 0.51%weekly to 3253.24 points; the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index fell 1.03%to 12266.92 points; the GEM refers to 2.44%to 2670.45 points. In terms of funds, Northbound Fund sold 1.148 billion yuan this week. From the perspective of large -scale funds, the 31st category will be sold in the entire line of the industry. Among them, the net sales amount of household appliances is up to 68.21 million yuan; Essence From the perspective of the increase in the industry in the first -level industry, this week's 16 types of industries have achieved the rise. Among them, the real estate industry has rose 2.85%of the weekly increase, followed by car and institutional equipment increases of 2.34%and 2.22%, respectively. The deepest decline was medical creatures, with a weekly decline of 3.77%. From the perspective of lifting the ban, 40 shares will face restricted sales next week, with a total of 3.301 billion shares of the lifting of the ban. Based on the latest closing price, the total market value of the ban is 55.609 billion yuan. From the perspective of lifting shares, Fudan's micro -electrode ban is the highest, reaching 11.945 billion yuan. Table: The top ten of the amount of lifting the ban next week (calculation of the closing price this week) Table: Zhao Ziqiang's new shares, according to the issuance arrangement, the A-share market will be purchased next week (August-5th). Hong Kong stock market: As of the close of Friday, the Hang Seng Index has fallen by 2.2%in the past five days to close 20156.51 points; the technology index fell 5.80%in the same period to close 4331.19 points; the state -owned enterprise index fell 3.11%and closed at 6885.48 points. CICC believes that the market may continue to consolidate in the short term, and future growth prospects and policy stance may still be a key decisive factor that affects the rhythm of the market. The maintenance of domestic policy stance, the market valuation is still attractive, and the continuous inflow of southbound capital has made the short -term challenge not lead to the overall upward trend of the Hong Kong stock market. Variables worth paying close attention in the future include: 1. China's economic growth and policy changes; 2. European geopolitical tensions; 3. changes in epidemic conditions; 4. Sino -US relations and regulatory cooperation dynamics. Specific in terms of sector configuration, we believe that finding certainty and quality targets may be a better choice for investors to resist potential fluctuations. From a long -term perspective, more continuous rising space will depend on whether the current optimism can be transformed into a corporate profit and growth. Overseas markets: On Friday, the three major indexes of the US stocks rose collectively, the Dow rose 0.97%, and the cumulative increase of 6.73%this month; the S & P 500 index rose 1.42%, the cumulative increase of 9.11%this month, the NATO index rose 1.88%, the cumulative cumulative this month The increase of 12.35%, and the Nasdaq 100 index rose 13%in July, the best monthly performance since April 2020.

This week, the three major European stock indexes performed well. The British FTSE 100 index rose 2.02%weekly, the German DAX 30 index rose 1.74%week, and the French CAC40 index rose 3.73%week. The major stock index of the Asia -Pacific stock market was differentiated. The Nikkei 225 index fell 0.05%on Friday to 27801.64 points, a cumulative 0.40%this week; the South Korean KOSPI index rose 0.67%on Friday to 2451.50 points, up 2.44%weekly. 2. The bond market Guosheng Securities stated that from several angles, the results of our 10 -year national bond interest rates are expected to break through the lows in the first half of the year, down to nearly 2.6%. At present, the debt market is strong, or it will not be weakened has become a relatively consensus on the market. Through the relationship between the fundamentals, the price of funds and the long -term interest rate; the period of time spread compression; and the underwriting pressure changes, etc., it is estimated that the 10 -year national bond interest rate is expected to fall to nearly 2.6%, or even lower. Although accurate estimation of the downward space of interest rates is basically impossible, judging downward space is an indispensable part of investment decisions. Therefore, we try to make estimate for investors' reference. In the process of overall interest rates or downlinks, investors are advised to continue to focus on leverage strategies and long -term strategies. 3. Foreign exchange industry securities said that in the US dollar: technical recession temporarily cooled rate hikes, but the pressure of "salary-inflation" was not substantially reduced, and financial conditions were still loose. The Fed will continue to tightening. The US dollar is crowded, the European and American monetary policy is concentrated, and the US dollar index shocks high. In terms of euro: The economic recession and geopolitical risks of the euro zone are still the main factor in suppressing the euro. In terms of pound: The pound will continue to fluctuate with the euro, but the appreciation of the US dollar depreciation may be greater. In addition, we need to pay close attention to geopolitical trends. In terms of yen: In the context of the high -level shock of the US dollar index in August, the probability of the US dollar against the yen also maintained at a high level. 4. In terms of commodity strategy, Melia Futures stated that the main contract of COMEX gold is mainly based on a strong rebound in the short term. At present, the support below COMEX gold is temporarily at $ 1722/ounce, and the break is temporarily left. In the domestic side, the main force of Shanghai Gold 2212 rebounded strongly. It is recommended to do the dips in the operation. The support below is temporarily at 379.5 yuan/gram. WeChat Futures said that newss such as recent IMF global economic growth rate outlook and the Federal Reserve ’s 75bp in July have landed. The macro stimulus has weakened, and the overall fluctuations of commodities have shown signs of low fluctuations. Among them The first place in the commodity of the Great Sect is a good time to fall in the later period, which is a good time to lay out the strategy of sellers during the layout. Picture | Site Cool Hero Bao Map.com | Zhang Xin Nucle

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