Will Pelosi still visit Taiwan?Which section of itinerary and excuses may be arranged?｜ In -depth analysis

On July 30, local time, Perosi, Speaker of the House of Representatives of the United States Congress, started a trip to Asia. Will this trip visit Taiwan and attract the attention of all parties. On July 29th before departure, Pelosi still refused to disclose the specific itinerary because of the security factor. On July 31, the official website of the Office of the Speaker of the House of Representatives announced the trip of Pelosci Asia, saying that Perosi led the Congress delegation to visit the Indo -Pacific region, including Japan, South Korea and Singapore. The full text did not mention Taiwan.

What purpose is Pelosi's visit to expose? Will Pelosi visit Taiwan's trip, how big is the chance? The United States Liden aircraft carrier battle group is urgently going north. Are you preparing for escort Perosi to visit Taiwan? What are the deployments of Perlis that may have to visit Taiwan?

This article is an analysis and interpretation of Mr. Teng Jianqun, a researcher of the China Institute of International Issues in the "News Today's Talk" -

At the moment of boarding, Perosi was very excited. Although Perosi did not say whether she wanted to visit Taiwan, she should be arranged this direction as a focus of this trip to Asia.

From the perspective of her schedule, Japan and South Korea are regional allies that the United States strongly attracts. Here, it will show that the United States 'control ability to control these two countries and show that the United States' support for these two allies, so visit South Korea and Japan is inevitable.

Similarly, it is also an important choice to go to ASEAN countries. This is where the Bayeng government wants to focus on. After Biden came to power, some of his cabinet officials and even Vice President Harris visited Southeast Asian countries. Because to continuously create incidents in the South China Sea region, in addition to the United States, it is necessary to continuously send ships and planes to provoke, but also need to be pulled into the regional and some countries. The United States hopes to enter the Alliance for La South and South Asian countries to conduct so -called "strategic competition" with China.

For Pelosi, the most interesting thing now is whether she will visit Taiwan, and what kind of trip will she arrange in her?

Judging from the current situation, if Pelosi decides to visit Taiwan, it may be arranged before leaving Japan to Southeast Asian countries, because in the itinerary, Perlis first goes to Japan, South Korea, and then visiting Taiwan. of. In addition, it is also possible to arrange the last stop of the trip to Asia, which has a certain reference with the speaker of the House of Representatives of the United States Congress in 1997. at last. But today's Northeast Asian situation, especially the situation in Taiwan, was completely different from the mid -to -late 1990s.

In the mid -to -late 1990s, Lee Teng -hui continued to provoke and contributed to the United States. At that time, China also made a strong response, including a series of measures such as the missile dam experiment. In the past two days, the Chinese People's Liberation Army also conducted a joint military exercise in the sea and airspace near Taiwan Island. This goal is very clear. Once Perosi dares to visit Taiwan, I believe that the Chinese People's Liberation Army and the Chinese government will definitely respond.

In response to Peross's possible visit to Taiwan, how will the US military adjust and deploy?

From now on, the U.S. military is indeed moving. For example, before that, when someone asked whether the US President Biden supported Perosi to visit Taiwan, Biden hit Tai Chi, saying that I don’t know about it. Son. Perlis, as the Speaker of the House of Representatives of the United States, is indeed that there is no need to notify the government and President Bayeng by her itinerary. In addition, Biden said another word saying that he would listen to the military, and the U.S. military believed that it was inappropriate.

There is a source of this. In January 2019, Pelosi wanted to take the Air Force special plane to visit Afghanistan and Brussels. As a result, Pelosi and his party arrived at the airport, and thelex was told that he could not take the Air Force special plane to visit, so they had to revoke the visit to Afghanistan and Brussels at the time.

Why is Biden "playing Tai Chi"? Because he cannot publicly support it, if public support, it may indicate the US government's position, after all, the president represents the highest administrative agency in the United States. If he doesn't support it, how can he make a difference in China?

Now in the United States, "anti -China" has become the cause of some politicians. For example, Pelosi has actually rely on "anti -China" since the 1990s. Bayeng's domestic support rate was very low. If he now said "can't go" and made a decision to block Perosi's visit to Taiwan, I don't think he can pay bad sides. So he finally showed the ambiguous attitude of "playing Tai Chi". He is also relatively cunning. He can not let Pelossen take a business plane, but he does not. He is a kind of support, neither opposition nor support, is a kind of support in itself.

The United States Liden Nuclear Power Aircraft Carrier went north to the South China Sea on July 26. What activities did it? Do you think are you preparing to escort the possible visit to Taiwan for Pelosi?

Judging from the adjustment of military force deployment, it should be a great connection with Pelosi may visit Taiwan Island. After all, the Ridan carrier combat group runs to Singapore for a port visit. As far as the plan is concerned, it is as far as the plan. The itinerary should be visited at a port in Vietnam and Hong Kong, but now it is canceled, but it is directly north from the south Singapore waters.

This area is close to the waters near Taiwan Island, and it is obviously to escort Perosia's trip, not only for Perosi to visit Taiwan. After all, Pelosi is the third figure in the entire power structure of the United States. It is to make a posture to ensure that the visits of US politicians in the Asia -Pacific region can have military support. In addition, from the military perspective, the US Federation Chairman also publicly stated in Australia two days ago. If necessary, the US military can provide escort Peros. This is publicly expressed. Unlike Biden's statement, it happened to be Baden's mouth, that is, the military can provide escort for Perlusian Pacific trip. Therefore, it can be seen that regardless of the military leaders or military deployment, they have entered a state of preparation or escort.

The Chinese People's Liberation Army fired in the waters near Pingtan, Fujian on July 30. It is reported that Pingtan is only 68 nautical miles closest to Hsinchu, Taiwan, which is equivalent to 126 kilometers. In fact, it includes the real shot of the Pingtan waters. At least 5 military exercises were conducted in the sea area. What kind of signal did the PLA's frequent army release?

This is an important signal for our deterrence of "Taiwan independence".

Sea and air exercises in the surrounding waters around Taiwan should be a normalized operation. The Chinese Air Force aircraft continuously sneak out. For example, normalized patrols in the southeast area of ​​Taiwan Island, and the aircraft carrier battle group has repeatedly appeared on Taiwan Island Island. The east -waters, as well as surface combat ships and bombers, are constantly flying around the island. These goals are very clear, that is, to deter the island split forces that try to "conspire with beauty" and "martial arts". Once needed, I believe that the PLA can respond quickly. Therefore, the exercise itself is a kind of training, but the exercise itself is more deterrent.

Earlier, China would send many warnings on Pelosi to visit Taiwan. If Peroisi visit Taiwan to travel, what countermeasures China will China take?

If you visit the line, China will counter at least four dimensions. First of all, sanctions will be treated with some US personnel and politicians.

Second, the division forces on the island are strongly suppressed, which does not rule out economic means. After all, cross -strait trade exchanges are very good than Taiwan.

Third, it is diplomacy. Taiwan is part of China. The continuous disruption of the United States in the region is a serious trample on the UN Charter. It is an oath, including the current Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Chinese Military, and the Taiwan Affairs Office of the Taiwan Affairs Office of frequent sounds and defending sovereignty.

The fourth is the military level. The recent exercises of the Chinese military are not only normal exercises. Once needed, they have the ability to switch into actual combat at any time. The Chinese government has this will and determination. The PLA has this ability and perseverance to defend the territorial integrity and sovereign dignity of the motherland.

What does Pelosi really visit? What impact will it have on Sino -US relations?

This is a great harm to Sino -US relations.

We all know that from Trump, the U.S. government has adopted a so -called competitive strategy to China. The United States conspires the world's dominant position.

Biden came to power very much, including continuously pulling gangs in the Asia -Pacific region, and constantly proposing the excuses of the so -called "Chinese national human rights" to interfere with our internal affairs, and even in Taiwan, they also made small hands and feet, especially allowed some politicians Visits in Taiwan and provide advanced weapon systems to Taiwan. These weapons are completely consistent with active weapons and equipment in the U.S. military. Some weapons may not be suitable for the terrain and landforms in Taiwan, but why should they be sent over? It is to use Taiwan as a warehouse, as a preset point for weapons and equipment, especially heavy equipment.

Therefore, if Pelosi visits, it should be stable in harming Sino -US relations and regional harm regions, and it also has a huge impact on international relations and international jurisprudence.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs once again sued the United States: Don’t arrange Perosi to visit Taiwan, otherwise it will lead to serious consequences

At the regular press conference of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs today (August 1), a reporter asked questions about Asian related issues on the Speaker of the House of Representatives Perlis.

In response, spokesman Zhao Lijian said that China has recently stated to the United States that he has resolutely opposed the serious concern and serious position of the Speaker of Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, emphasizing that Peros will lead to serious consequences.

Resolutely maintaining China's national sovereign and territorial integrity is the firm will of more than 1.4 billion Chinese people. Public opinion must not be violated, and you must break self -immolation. I believe the United States has fully understood the strong and clear information transmitted by China. If the Speaker of Pelosi will go to Taiwan, it will be a rough interference in China's internal affairs, which will seriously damage China's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and want to trample on a Chinese principle, seriously threaten the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait, and severely damage Sino -US relations. Essence

Zhao Lijian pointed out: "We have to sue the United States again, and the Chinese side is waiting for strict. The Chinese People's Liberation Army will never sit and ignore it. China will take resolute response and effective response measures to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity. What the United States should do is to abide by a China The principle and the three joint communiqués of China and the United States stipulate that President Biden does not support the "Taiwan independence" commitment, and it is not allowed to arrange Perosi to visit Taiwan. "

Source: "News Today Talk"

Edit: Mumu

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