21 Deep 丨 Sophia's stock price fell 37%a month.

Southern Finance All Media Reporter Weng Rongtao Guangzhou reports

Sophia (002572.SZ), a customized home company, has gone through the "ups and downs" in the nearly two months. In June, Sofia's stock price rose steadily to "recover the lost land", but in July, it entered the significant downward channel to the lowest point in this year.

Wind data shows that Sofia's stock price reached the highest point of nearly a year at the end of June of 28.39 yuan/share, but as of July 29, the closing price was 17.79 yuan/share, and it fell 37%in July.

The reason why the stock price declines obviously. First, the overall market performance of the entire custom home furnishing industry is sluggish. Home (603801.SH), etc., the stock price has gone out of the same downward trend in the past month. Second, the recent important personnel changes in Sophia have been issued on July 9th that after the company's deputy general manager Yang Xin left, Sophia ushered in two consecutive days of daily limit.

Some analysts in the home industry pointed out to reporters that "Generally speaking, the transmission of the real estate industry to the downstream home industry takes one or two years. The performance growth is weak, and this adverse effect is gradually emerging. "

Drag by upstream real estate

Affected by the internal and external environment, Sofia is welcoming a rare difficult time since its listing.

On the one hand, since 2018, Sofia's revenue and profit growth have slowed down. Sophia, which was originally a "closet" in China, was first surpassed by the Oupai Home Furnishing in 2021.

On the other hand, Sophia's business was affected by the default of the commercial acceptance bill of the real estate enterprise when the real estate company matched the commercial acceptance bill. Yuan.

The liquidity crisis of housing enterprises has begun in the second half of 2021 and has not yet fully ended. Although Sophia has prepared bad debts about last year's performance, it is too early to say that the credit impairment process has ended. There are still impairment pressures in the future.

A sales director who engaged in the home industry in Guangzhou told reporters that "the sales of the real estate industry in the first half of this year have significantly declined, and the demand for firing and repair from real estate customers has been much less. The large -scale business in the past few years is not very good this year. "

The 21st Century Economic Herald reporter noticed that in the first half of this year, due to the impact of the epidemic and the problem of real estate liquidity, the operation of the home industry weakened. More than 80%of the furnishing companies' stock prices fell. 30%.

Historical data analysis shows that the valuation of customized home companies is significantly related to the growth rate of commercial housing sales.

my country's real estate industry generally implements a pre -sale system for housing. It takes two or three years from land development to completion, and home companies are usually involved after the completion of the house. It was only transmitted to the performance of downstream home furnishing companies.

However, the sense of smell of the capital market is keen, and the impact of real estate policies on the valuation of home companies often reflects before the performance disclosure. From the perspective of Sofia's historical valuation performance, it has a strong correlation with real estate sales changes.

Beginning in October 2013, first -tier and second -tier cities have tightened real estate regulation policies. The growth rate of commodity housing sales became negative growth in February 2014. Sofia's valuation also ended at the end of the month. 45 times fell to 29 times in May.

After 2015, the government vigorously promoted the monetization policy of real estate destocking and shed reform. The cumulative sales growth rate of commercial housing was negatively transferred in June 2015. The valuation of the home company remained firm, and Sophia's Pagang Price Bonding ratio remained above 37 times.

Since 2021, the government has introduced the "three red lines" policies and centralized land supply policies. A number of private housing companies have experienced liquidity crisis. Household companies have also entered a new round of decline in the second half of 2021. If the impact of the bad debt is excluded, the current price -earnings ratio is 15.7 times. Reflected in the stock price, Sophia's stock price of 36.52 yuan/share in February 2021, from the highest point in the past five years, gradually decreased to the current 17.79 yuan/share, showing a decline in the overall decline.

"Reducing market value" has become a significant trend in the home furnishing industry.

In early April 2021, the total market value of Ou Pai Home Furnishing, Gujia Home, and Sophia was 96.8 billion yuan, 51.9 billion yuan, and 31.1 billion yuan, respectively. By the end of July 2022, the total market value fell to 73.3 billion yuan, 37.9 billion yuan, and 37.9 billion yuan, and 37.9 billion yuan and 37.9 billion yuan. 16.2 billion yuan, fell 24%, 27%, and 48%, respectively.

Even in the header companies, Sophia has a relatively serious market value.

Huang Lichong, president of Huisheng International Finance, said that at present, the impact of liquidity risks of housing enterprises on home companies is only exposed. The impact will only be deepened in the next few years, because performance data is often lagging behind, and losses are also ductantly. Essence

The above -mentioned sales supervisor pointed out that "In addition to the impact of upstream real estate, the epidemic situation of many big cities is repeated, and the traffic flow of offline stores is much less. The home furnishing industry is currently facing the problem of rising raw materials. Some companies have adopted to reduce offline stores. The strategy, find a way to open source and thrift through this difficulty. "Cross -border entry doors and window tracks

Just in July, two important incidents in Sofia, one was Yang Xin, the deputy general manager who jumped from the opponent Oupai Home Furnishing, led the two consecutive daily limit; the other was Sophia officially announced the entry doors and windows.

In fact, for Sophia, after losing part of the revenue in the business of housing companies last year, how to make up for this part of revenue in other places is an imminent issue.

From the perspective of industry development trends, the incremental market of custom -made home companies may include, one is to find high -quality housing companies to develop the community cautiously, the other is to develop new product categories and create segmented brands. Installation business.

Wang Jianguo, an Internet strategy expert of China ’s home furnishing industry, analyzed to reporters that“ Sophia originally occupied the first domestic market share in the vertical field of wardrobe business, but was overtaken by competitors Ou Pai Home Furnishing last year, and Ou Pai Home Furnishing has cabinet business With a large advantage, Sophia will definitely have a relatively large sense of crisis. The doors and windows are also the category of custom home home. Under the customized strategy of the entire home, it naturally begins to deploy new doors and windows. "

Behind the departure of executives and new tracks, behind the two important incidents, they actually reflect Sophia's concerns about their business development.

Public information shows that Yang Xin is a senior person in the domestic custom furniture industry. Before joining Sofia in May last year, he had already fulfilled his duties in European home and was a key figure to help Europe to defeat Sofia in the wardrobe field.

For more than ten years, Yang Xin has served as a regional manager, director, general manager of the bathroom department, and chairman of the marketing assistant, and officially took over in 2015. In 2015, he officially took over the Oupai wardrobe as the general manager.

At the end of 2015, when Yang Xin took over the European wardrobe, the revenue of the European wardrobe was less than 50 % of the Sophia wardrobe. In the early 2020 European dealer conference, Yang Xin said that he would surpass Sofia's wardrobe business during the year.

Ou Pai Wardrobe left from 2015 to 2021. The revenue of the wardrobe business increased by 6.61 times. At the same time, Sophia, which was a leader in the wardrobe, only increased by 1.69 times. Because of this, the European wardrobe achieved a revenue of 10.172 billion yuan in 2021. For the first time, it overtaked Sophia and then won the throne of "Brother Wardrobe".

An obvious development trend is that the business barriers between customized home factories are becoming more and more blurred, and multi -category development has become a trend. While the wardrobe business was overtaken, Sophia did not stand up. As early as 2013, the household business was launched. In 2014, they joined Simi Cabinet and entered Huahemumen in 2017. At present, Sofia's strategic positioning is "full customization", with multi -product, multi -brand, omni -channel integration and development.

However, compared to the cabinet business, in recent years, the Ou Pai Home Furnishing, which has also deployed the household business in recent years, Sofia's revenue performance in the cabinet business and wooden door business fell down. As of the end of 2021, Sofia's cabinet business recorded revenue of 1.42 billion yuan and 458 million yuan, while the Cabinet business and wooden door records of Opai Home Furnishing recorded revenue of 7.529 billion yuan and 1.236 billion yuan in the same period.

In November 2021, the new strategy of Sophia's "entire customization" strategy led by Yang Xin, proposing that the entire customization strategy will be a powerful engine for Sofia's growth in the future. Now his departure has caused uncertainty of the landing and effectiveness of the entire tactics.

In this regard, the relevant person in charge of Sofia told reporters that "the company will continue to adhere to the 'entire customization' strategy and replace Yang Xin as the senior general manager of Sofia Retail Division as Liu Zhichao. The company's multi -brand and full category strategy pioneer, and half of the Sophia dealers have been dealt with. The next core work is to do a good job of resource allocation and internal issues. "

On the basis of the custom -made cabinet of the whole house, the entire house customizes the wooden door, background board, floor, electrical appliances, etc., integrate more category products, and also designed, pricked, place orders from the front -end stores to the back end to the back end to the back end. Factory demolition orders and production orders have higher requirements.

The home company should realize the entire family customization. One is to produce multi -category home products by themselves, and the other is to cooperate with other category brands when it cannot expand the scale to make multiple categories. Because of this, the entire family customization is mainly head households such as Sophia and Opai Home Furnishing.

Although Yang Xin had left, Sophia officially released the "Sophia Door and Window" brand on July 9 under the guidance of the entire customized strategic strategy of its former home, and entered the new doors and windows.

Gong Jianzhao, the general manager of Sofia Huamen Co., Ltd., pointed out at the brand conference that the currently homogeneity of doors and windows and the operation of the industry's items is difficult to resolve the pain point of consumption. So Sofia innovatively launched the overall solution of the "door wall and window" integration.

Wang Jianguo pointed out that "Sofia started from the closet. In recent years, new categories such as cabinets and wooden doors have been laid out. Now the doors and windows business has been deployed. As a head home brand, it has advantages in stock channels and brand influence. In terms of marketing promotion and market competition, there are still many challenges. After all, the door and window industry has developed for so many years, and there are some competitive head companies in itself. "Public information shows that the head and window industry head enterprises such as imperial homes and Mori Eagle. The window industry has released the prospectus to prepare for listing. In addition, multiple home brands have successively expanded door and window categories. Hollying guests joined hands with Leituo Door and Window to enter the military doors and windows. Later, Sophia do also need to create its own unique competitive advantage.

Development logic in the era of stock

Affected by last year's business risks, repeated epidemic and decline in the demand for refinement, the custom home market has begun to have new demand changes this year. Compared with the previous, home companies attach more importance to retail customers. "The price of the representative prevails.

From the perspective of the market, this year's home industry "package style" prevails. It is understood that since the "315" promotion month, head custom home companies have launched a new round of "price war" in the form of "entire set meal".

For example, Ou Pai Home Furnishing, Sofia, and Gujia Home launched the new 29,800 yuan/39,800 yuan/49800 yuan for the entire set meal. At the same time Electricity and soft furnishings and other categories.

The relevant person in charge of Sophia pointed out that "the package model is the key to solving the pain points such as incomplete prices, uncontrollable budgets, and complicated pricing methods. It will continue to provide consumers with high cost -effective entire custom sets and further promote the development of full category integration and development ","

Behind the "package style", the price war between home brands has officially launched. However, it takes time to test whether it can solve the problem of increasing increasing income from home companies to rely on more categories to increase the unit price of guest companies.

At present, as my country's urbanization level has increased and the number of long -term population is under pressure, the downward trend of the new housing market is obvious. For home companies, the demand for stock housing will become the main growth driver.

With reference to the development experience of developed countries abroad, an obvious feature of the existing house era is that the number of second -hand housing transactions exceeds the number of new house transactions. At present, second -hand housing transactions in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are also close or surpassed by new house transactions. As my country's cities gradually enter the era of stock housing, customizing the home furnishing industry needs to change the original development strategy.

South Korea's Hanson Home starts from a professional kitchen furniture company in 1970, and gradually expands the product line to multiple scenarios such as flooring, bathrooms, bedrooms, children's rooms, study rooms, and other scenarios to provide overall family interior decoration business. ceiling. When the financial crisis in 2007, the low -end brand was launched to complete the full price line coverage.

In recent years, Japanese header companies should meet consumer habits, sink from high luxury before the real estate bubble era to high cost -effective consumption habits. Humanity has gradually jumped in Japan's first domestic.

Guo Qinglong, chief analyst of Haitong Securities Light Industry, pointed out that after entering the competition of stock houses, leading companies in Japan, South Korea, and Europe have begun to expand new categories and channels. For example, the development strategies such as scene -type marketing, creating a one -stop flagship store, and launching the whole house customization are launched. Following the footsteps of Japan, South Korea, Europe, and the United States, the customization of the whole house in my country also kicked off. The whole house customization meets the one -stop portable demand of the main consumer force, and it gives custom enterprises to greater room for use. Terminal companies are expected to seize market share through their own channels, supply chain capabilities, and brand advantages.

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