The Fed's radical interest rate hike still adheres to the "mainly me" on my country's influence of limited monetary policy

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the fourth time in the year. On July 27th local time, the Federal Reserve Commission announced the 75 basis points of interest rate hikes to adjust the federal fund interest rate target range to between 2.25%and 2.5%. This is the second consecutive interest rate hike of the Federal Reserve.

Since the beginning of this year, the Fed has raised interest rates 4 times, with a cumulative interest rate hike of 225 basis points. The previous three interest rate hikes were raised in March, May, and June, respectively, respectively, 50, 50, and 75 basis points, and 75 basis points were also the largest single rate hikes since the Federal Reserve in November 1994.

What impact does the Fed ’s interest rate hike affect the market in my country? Will my country's monetary policy be adjusted? These topics have become the focus of attention from all parties in China. Interviewed experts believe that the Fed's faster tightening monetary policy and global entry into a currency tightening cycle will trigger the risk of capital outflow and exchange rate depreciation. The spread of China and the United States has compressed the loose space of my country's monetary policy to a certain extent. However, my country's economic toughness is strong, and the long -term good fundamentals have not changed. These factors are enough to support my country to deal with external disturbances. In the face of future uncertainty, monetary policy still has sufficient experience and adequate tools to respond.

At the press conference of foreign exchange revenue and expenditure data in the first half of 2022 in the first half of 2022, Wang Chunying, deputy director and spokesman of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, emphasized that more confidence and conditions can effectively resolve the adjustment of the Fed's monetary policy adjustment to China's cross -border funds flow Influence, the Chinese foreign exchange market is expected to continue the stable operation. my country's comprehensive strength is stronger and can better play the ability to absorb external shocks. With the effectiveness of various stable growth policies, the Chinese economy will gradually recover in the future and maintain steady growth. my country's international revenue and expenditure structure is more stable, which can better ensure the stability and security of cross -border capital flow. Promoting higher levels of opening up in my country can better expand the depth and breadth of the foreign exchange market. The fluctuation of the ability to absorb or smooth cross -border funds is conducive to the overall balance of promoting cross -border funds. In addition, the foreign exchange market regulation mechanism is more mature, which can better use the RMB exchange rate to adjust the function of the automatic stabilizer of the international revenue and expenditure.

In the face of the current economic situation, China's monetary policy still adheres to the "master of me", strengthens the implementation of stable monetary policy, and provides more powerful support for the real economy. Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Market Department of Everbright Bank, said that the domestic food harvest was harvested in succession, the production and life were accelerated, and the domestic supply and stable measures were not decreasing. The production capacity of pigs had been restored to perennial levels. In addition, the financial system remains stable, and my country's monetary policy will continue to be independent.

Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, believes that the overall mildness of the domestic inflation situation is expected to continue, which is in sharp contrast to the high inflation of the United States and Europe. This fundamental difference in economic fundamentals determines the foundation of "the main" of domestic macro policies, and does not need to follow up with the tightening of the Fed's implementation policy.

What impact does the Fed ’s interest rate hike affect the market in my country? In terms of the foreign exchange market, the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike has prompted the US dollar index to continue to rise, and the recent 20 -year high has reached a new high. Affected by this, non -US currencies such as the euro, yen, pound, and Australian dollar have continued to depreciate to the low position during the year. In contrast, the RMB exchange rate is much strong, and compared to other non -US currencies, it is more stable. Behind this reflects that the overall situation of the foreign exchange market in my country is stable, and it is not surprising. It shows strong toughness in the face of the complex and changing international and domestic situation.

In terms of stock markets, Zhou Maohua believes that the Fed's policy has limited impact on domestic, mainly because China and the United States are in different economic and policy cycles, and the stock market will eventually return to the fundamental fundamentals of the country. "From the perspective of trend, the prospects of domestic economic development, the stock market trend is high, the RMB assets are not highly related to other markets, the RMB exchange rate is stable, and the pace of RMB internationalization is accelerated. Below, RMB assets are expected to become global capital shelters. "

In terms of bond markets, since February this year, some foreign investment has continuously reduced holdings of RMB bonds, which has aroused concerns from some markets. This is mainly due to the differentiation of the economic cycle and monetary policy of China and the United States. Sino -US spreads are rapidly converging or even inverted, and the attraction of US debt has increased. However, some channels of foreign investment have been adjusted in staged, which does not affect the confidence in investing in my country's bond market in the medium- and long -term foreign capital. In general, my country's bonds have both decentralized investment value and actual allocation needs, and have fundamental support. In the long run, foreign capital will still steadily increase holding RMB bonds.

Experts said that we must cherish the current window of time when the inflation is relatively mild and developed countries with a small tightening policy, and promote the early stage of stable growth policies to accelerate the effectiveness. Monetary policy should continue to play the dual functions and structural dual functions, implement various financial policies and measures for employment of stabilizing enterprises, and focus on supporting small and micro enterprises and difficult industries. At the same time, we must also take into account the balance of internal and external balance, pay close attention to the adjustment of monetary policy in major developed economies, pay attention to changes in price trend, support food and energy production supply, prevent the risk of input inflation, and maintain the overall stability of prices.

(Editor in charge: Wang Chenxi)

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