National Bureau of Statistics: July Manufacturing PMI is 49.0%

On July 31, the National Bureau of Statistics released data. In July, the China Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) was 49.0%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month. It was below the critical point. The index of 53.8%and 52.5%, respectively, decreased by 0.9 percentage points and 1.6 percentage points from the previous month. It was located in the expansion range for two consecutive months.

"Although infrastructure investment is playing the role of the bottom, it is difficult to support the independence of infrastructure, so policy needs to further play a positive role." Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, told the Securities Daily reporter.

Manufacturing purchasing manager index drops to contraction range

Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician of the Service Industry Investigation Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that in July, affected by factors such as the low season of traditional production, the lack of release of market demand, and the decline in high energy consumption industry, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0%.

From the perspective of the classification index, the five classification indexes have fallen comprehensively, all of which are lower than the critical point. Specifically, the production index was 49.8%, a decrease of 3 percentage points from the previous month; the new order index was 48.5%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points from the previous month; The index was 48.6%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; the supplier delivery time index was 50.1%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month.

Wen Bin said that from the supply side, the production index fell more significantly than the previous month. The epidemic in July was repeated, causing certain disturbances to the production activities of the enterprise, but more importantly, because the company has ended the fastest period of restoration, the current insufficient demand has become a short board for suppressing the production of enterprises.

From the perspective of demand, the new order index fell again and fell below the Rongku line. At the same time, both internal and external need to show a two -slowing trend. The new export orders fell 2.1 percentage points to 47.4%, and the imports fell 2.6 percentage points to 46.9%. In this regard, Wen Bin said, "Foreign demand is mainly due to the signs of recession because the developed economies showed a significant interest rate hike, and domestic demand was mainly dragged down by the downturn in the real estate market and the weak consumption."

Zhao Qinghe pointed out that the results of the survey showed that the proportion of enterprises that reflect the insufficient market demand rose for 4 consecutive months, and in July more than 50 %. Insufficient market demand is the main difficulty facing the current manufacturing enterprises.

It is worth noting that the prosperity of different types of enterprises has declined. From the perspective of enterprises, large and medium -sized enterprises PMIs are 49.8%and 48.5%, respectively, down 0.4 and 2.8 percentage points from the previous month, and decreased to below the critical point; small enterprise PMI is 47.9%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. Below than the critical point.

Wen Bin said that the main reason for the first decline in PMI in large enterprises is that after the resumption of work and re -production is nearing completion, it is the first to encounter insufficient pressure on demand.

Judging from the situation in July, insufficient demand has impacted large, medium and medium -sized enterprises at the same time.

Pang Ye, chief economist and director of the research department of the Digou Filver Greater China, told a reporter from the Securities Daily that PMI, large, medium -sized enterprises, lived in the contraction range, especially the small and medium -sized enterprises fell the most. It shows that effective demand must be expanded under the premise of stabilizing employment and stable market entities.

Non -manufacturing recovery growth for two consecutive months

Data show that in July, the non -manufacturing business activity index was 53.8%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month. It is still located in the expansion range, and the non -manufacturing industry has recovered for two consecutive months.

From the perspective of the branch industry, the business activity index of the construction industry was 59.2%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points from the previous month; the business activity index of the service industry was 52.8%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month.

"The construction industry expands accelerated. From the perspective of industry conditions, civil engineering construction industry business activity indexes, new order indexes, and employee indexes are 58.1%, 51.8%, and 51.9%, respectively, an increase of 0.2 percentage points, 1.6 percentage points and 1.0 from the previous month. One percentage point shows that the construction of infrastructure projects has accelerated, market demand has picked up, enterprise employment continues to increase, and the industry is expected to maintain steadily. "Zhao Qinghe said.

Dongfang Jincheng's chief macro analyst Wang Qing told the Securities Daily that in July, the construction industry production activities accelerated and at a high level of high prosperity. It is expected that the direction of further speed up infrastructure investment in the second half of the year is relatively certain. The growth rate of infrastructure investment in the year is expected to reach about 10%(7.1%in the first half of the year). Pillar effect.

In Wen Bin's view, the rising prosperity of the construction industry is mainly related to the acceleration of infrastructure investment. After the issuance of new special debt was issued in June, it must be used before the end of August, so the investment speed of infrastructure in various places has been accelerated.

"Steady growth continues to land, and the micro level has appeared." Zhao Wei, chief economist of Guojin Securities, told the Securities Daily that in July, the new orders of civil engineering construction industry rose 1.6 percentage points to 51.8%; correspondingly Land, asphalt operating rates and cement shipments have been rebounded for several weeks, or the effect of stable growth has gradually emerged.

At the same time, Zhao Qinghe also pointed out that the service industry continued to recover. Of the 21 industries surveyed, 16 industry business activities indexes are located in the expansion range. From the market expectations, the business activity expectation index is 58.8%, and it continues to be located in a higher prosperity range. The expected index of all industry business activities in the survey is above the critical point for two consecutive months. Policies need to actively act in expanding demand

Looking forward to the future, Wang Qing said that with a performance of a stable macroeconomic market, the policy is further effective, and it is expected that the manufacturing PMI in August is expected to rise to the expansion range.

"At present, the fiscal policy is mainly focused on the use of special bond funds for local government and a good use of special debt limits. The monetary policy mainly focuses on increasing the credit support for enterprises and the use of policy -based banks. "Wen Bin believes that once the economic recovery is not as good as expected, there may still be an incremental policy in the second half of the year, including but not limited to the early use and comprehensive reduction of special debt.

Zheng Houcheng, director of the Institute of British Securities Research Institute, told a reporter from the Securities Daily that in the context of the overall PMI of the manufacturing PMI in July, the background of the production demand is expected to actively actively act as a "stable employment in employment "". At the same time, fiscal policy and monetary policy will also increase their support for the real economy.

(Editor in charge: Wang Chenxi)

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