Auto companies entering the acceleration and differentiation period will gradually be eliminated

Editor -in -law has been under pressure in my country this year. The operation of the industrial chain supply chain has shown strong toughness, which has provided strong support for steady growth. In the second half of the year, what are the new trends in my country's industrial development and new measures in high -quality development? Starting from this series of reports, stay tuned.

In the first half of this year, my country's automotive market environment was complex and changeable, and the market growth showed a "V" trend. According to data from the China Automobile Industry Association, my country's automobile sales in the first half of the year were 12.057 million, although it decreased by 6.6%year -on -year, but the decline was narrowed by 5.6 percentage points from January to May.

It is worth noting that in the first half of the year, the top ten companies (groups) of automobile sales sold a total of 10.343 million units, accounting for 85.8%of the total car sales. In other words, car companies other than these top ten companies (groups) occupy only 14.2%of the remaining markets. Judging from the performance trailers released by more than ten car companies in the first half of this year, the performance differentiation of car companies is obvious. Some people in the industry said that with the intelligent and electrification acceleration of the automotive industry, car companies with slow transformation will gradually be eliminated.

Autonomous brand car company upward

Since the beginning of this year, the auto market has experienced "high opening", "waist folding", "tie", "innovation high", as thrilling like a roller coaster. During this time, the market share of the autonomous brand car has continuously increased the biggest highlight of my country's automobile market.

In the first half of this year, independent brand passenger cars sold a total of 4.891 million units, an increase of 16.5%year -on -year, accounting for 47.2%of the total number of passenger vehicles, an increase of 5.3 percentage points from the same period last year, continuing the continuous development of the development since last year.

Great Wall Motors, Changan Automobile, BYD and other head car companies performed well. In the first half of the year, Great Wall Motors was expected to make a profit of 5.3 billion yuan to 5.9 billion yuan, a year -on -year increase of 50.2%to 67.2%; Changan Automobile's expected profit was 5 billion yuan to 6.2 billion yuan, a year -on -year increase of 189.14%to 258.54%; BYD It is expected to make a profit of 2.8 billion yuan to 3.6 billion yuan, a year -on -year increase of 138.59%to 206.76%.

Especially in the field of new energy vehicles, independent brands have become the absolute main force. BYD has officially suspended its production of fuel vehicles since March this year, becoming the first traditional enterprise in the world to suspend fuel vehicles. In the first half of this year, BYD's new energy vehicle sales exceeded 640,000 vehicles. In mid -June, BYD stood for the first time to have a market value of trillions of dollars, becoming my country's first car company with a market value of more than trillions of dollars.

Traditional autonomous brand car companies such as Chery, GAC, and Dongfeng passenger cars have made new energy vehicles, and they have achieved positive growth in the first half of the year. The new forces of the ideal, Nezha, Xiaopeng, Weilai, Zero Run, etc. also moved against the trend in the first half of the year.

In the first half of the year, the overall production and sales of new energy vehicles exceeded expectations, and 2.661 million and 2.6 million were completed, respectively, an average of 1.2 times year -on -year. As of June 30, my country's new energy vehicle ownership has exceeded 10 million units. From the changes in the number of related companies, you can also feel the popularity of the new energy vehicle industry. Data from Tianyan Check shows that as of July 14, there were about 552,000 new energy vehicles related companies across the country. Among them, 118,000 registered enterprises were added in the first half of this year, and the average growth rate of new registered companies from January to June was 46.5 %, Keep high -speed growth.

Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of the China Automobile Association, said that the market share of independent brands has continued to increase, and the core is the improvement of brand competitiveness. Independent brand products are being accepted by more and more domestic consumers, and it will inevitably bring sales and market share growth. Especially in the field of new energy vehicles, independent brands are earlier, showing the booming development trend. "Overall judgment, in the next two or three years, the independent brand will show a steady development trend." Xu Haidong said.

The market continues to win

Different from the high singing of the head independent brand car companies in the field of new energy, the segmentation track differentiation is obvious. As of July 18, 16 car listed companies released the semi -annual performance forecast in 2022. Among them, there were 3 net profit pre -increased companies, and one of the company had a loss.

The market situation in the fuel vehicle is not optimistic. Cui Dongshu, Secretary -General of the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Joint Association, analyzed that in June, a total of 7.71 million vehicles in the narrow passenger cars decreased by 12%compared with the cumulative growth rate of the same period last year. The trend of traditional fuel vehicles is relatively sluggish. Although it is recovering, it is much lower than the sales of 2019. This area continues to decline brings greater market pressure.

In fierce market competition, some relatively weak car companies are in trouble. On July 15th, 6 companies including Hunan Cheetah Corporation Co., Ltd. merged and reorganized the first creditors meeting. The once brilliant cheetah car went to the entire place of bankruptcy. On July 18, Stellandis Group announced that negotiating with GAC Group to terminate local joint ventures, and will focus on imported cars of the JEEP brand in China in the future, which means that GAC Fick, established in 2010, is coming to an end. At present, in addition to several joint venture brands that have been delisted, many brands that are still struggling, such as Mitsubishi, Peugeot, Citroen, etc.

On the new energy vehicle track, there are also a large number of new entrants lacking technology and experience have been eliminated, such as Byton, Bojun, Sai Lin, etc. Recently, one of the earliest domestic new energy vehicle companies in China has been prosecuted because of arrears of wages and suppliers, and its intellectual vehicle Youxing Beijing Branch has recently been forced to bankruptcy and reorganization. In this regard, Xu Haidong believes that differentiation is the inevitable in the market economy, and the result of differentiation is that some good independent brands will continue to rise, and some of the worse people may face elimination. Rising good independent brands often means that they will occupy more market share and lead the entire independent brand car market share to develop upward.

It is foreseeable that in the next few years, a large number of car companies will face pressure, and the differentiation will further intensify. Perhaps the predictions of Zhu Huarong, the secretary of the Changan Automobile Party Committee and Chairman of Changan Automobile, will "shut down, stop production, merge, transform) by 80%of the Chinese fuel vehicle brands in the next 3 to 5 years.

Industry expectations in the second half of the year are good

Since the beginning of this year, in the face of the triple pressure of supply impact, demand shrinkage, expected weakness, and the new supply chain test brought about by the new crown pneumonia's epidemic, my country's automobile industry has shown strong development toughness.

Chen Shihua, deputy secretary -general of the China Automobile Industry Association, said that with the joint efforts of all parties, my country's automobile industry has gone out of the lowest valley in April. The production and sales performance in June is better than the level of history, marking that my country's automobile production and sales have fully returned to normal to normal Level.

As the re -production and re -production of the automotive industry has been fully achieved, all car companies have stepped up the promotion of production and sales under the premise of preventing and controlling the prevention and control of the normalized epidemic. Observation goal. At the same time, in addition to half a policy of purchasing tax reduction, it will continue until the end of the year, and some provinces and cities have issued policies to increase the consumption of car consumption, which will effectively release potential consumption demand.

The main car companies are confident in market development in the second half of this year. BYD expects that the total sales will reach 1.5 million units this year, and even if the supply chain is good, it is expected to impact 2 million units. According to the forecast of 1.5 million vehicles throughout the year, BYD still needs to complete the sales of about 860,000 units in the second half of the year, that is, the average monthly sales of more than 143,000 units. In June, BYD Chairman Wang Chuanfu said at the shareholders' meeting that BYD's orders at hand were more than 500,000 and continued to increase. The delivery cycle was 5 months to 6 months.

Looking forward to the second half of the year, Chen Shihua said that under the incentive of a series of consumer policies, my country's macroeconomic economy will maintain a steady growth, market consumption confidence will also be significantly recovered, the effect of purchase tax reduction will continue It will also be further increased; under the influence of favorable factors such as infrastructure driving and the extension of truck loans to repay the principal and interest, the truck market is also expected to bottom out; new energy vehicles will continue to maintain a high -speed growth momentum.

Chen Shihua comprehensively judged that my country's car sales this year are expected to reach 27 million, an increase of about 3%year -on -year. Among them, the sales volume of passenger vehicles is expected to be 23 million units, a year -on -year increase of about 7%; commercial vehicles are expected to be 4 million units, a year -on -year decrease of about 16%; new energy vehicles are expected to reach 5.5 million units, an increase of more than 56%year -on -year.

(Editor in charge: Wang Chenxi)

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