The central bank's multiple measures to maintain a reasonable and abundant level. Experts are expected to flexibly regulate and maintain the capital stability in the later stage.
Author:Securities daily Time:2022.07.31
Reporter Liu Qi
A few days ago, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasized that "monetary policy should maintain reasonable liquidity, increase credit support for enterprises, and use policy banks to build investment funds for new credit and infrastructure construction." Compared with the "good use of various monetary policy tools" proposed by the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee on April 29, the description of monetary policy in this meeting is more clear.
In this regard, Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, told the Securities Daily that the policy is expected to continue to maintain continuity in the second half of the year. While increasing credit support, it focuses Large width credit.
Zheng Houcheng, director of the Institute of British Securities Research Institute, said that monetary policy is expected to maintain a certain force. The meeting proposed "increasing credit support for enterprises". It is expected that M2 will be in a high position year -on -year in the short period of time as the social financing scale.
"In the process of economic return, monetary policy focuses more on the implementation of wide credit policies." CITIC Securities Chief Economist said in an interview with the Securities Daily that in the second quarter In a more reasonable and abundant state, the capital interest rate has continued to operate at a low level since April. The meeting proposed "maintaining a reasonable liquidity" and connecting the central bank to recently adjust the scale of inverse repurchase operations flexibly. In the future, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the central bank will guide capital interest rates to the return of policy interest rates.
In fact, the central bank has been emphasizing "maintaining a reasonable liquidity" this year. For example, in the "Practice Report of the first quarter of 2022" and the second quarterly meeting of the 2022 2022 regular meeting held by the People's Bank of China Monetary Policy Committee.
Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Everbright Bank Financial Market Department, told reporters that at present, domestic economic recovery is important, maintaining a reasonable and loose liquidity environment, dredging policy transmission, stabilizing the cost of financing of the real economy, and creating a suitable monetary environment for economic recovery.
Since the beginning of this year, the central bank has rationally increased the supply of liquidity, including reducing the reserve ratio of 0.25 percentage points, and 900 billion yuan in deposit profit. At the same time, with the increase in structural monetary policy tools such as fiscal expenditure and re -loan, the formation of large -scale basic currency investment, and the market liquidity has remained at a reasonable and abundant level. Since April, the capital interest rate has continued to operate at a low level, and after entering July, it has declined further. Recently, the weighted average interest rate of DR001 has fallen below 1%during the market.
Zou Lan, director of the Central Bank Monetary Policy Department, said at the "In the first half of the year's financial statistics data press conference" on July 13, "At present, the 7 -day repurchase of weighted average interest rates in the 7 -day repurchase of deposit institutions in the interbank market is the DR007 that we often say. At about 1.6%, the operating interest rate (2.1%) is lower than the open market, and the liquidity is kept at a more reasonable and slightly more slightly more slightly more and slightly slightly more level. "
According to China Currency Network data, from July 14th to July 28th, the weighted average interest rate of DR007 was 1.5967%and the lowest was 1.4826%. As of 17:00 on July 29, the weighted interest rate of DR007 was 1.6329%.
Zhou Maohua believes that the central bank has rich short -term liquidity tools. It is expected to be based on open market tools. It will comprehensively consider short -term disturbance factors, flexibly regulate, and maintain a stable funding for the capital.
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