49%!The manufacturing PMI fell into the contraction range again. What signal?These industries remain rising

The production requirement drags the performance of the manufacturing PMI in July.

On July 31, the Service Industry Investigation Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Logistics and Procurement Federation released the China Purchasing Manager Index. Data show that in July, the manufacturing procurement manager index (manufacturing PMI) was 49%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, and fell below the Rongku Line again after a month. Although the non -manufacturing business activity index and the comprehensive PMI output index fell from the previous month, it is still in the expansion range.

In the sub -index of the manufacturing PMI index, the downward range of the production index and the new order index is the top. It is worth mentioning that the supply and demand growth of the equipment manufacturing and high -tech manufacturing industries of the sub -item index remains at a relatively good level, indicating that although the growth rate of new kinetic energy has slowed down, it is still at the rise, and the industrial structure continues to continue optimization. The analysis believes that there is a short -term factors that the current economic recovery has fluctuated, and it is still foundation and conditions to maintain a stable recovery in the second half of the year.

All the classification index fell comprehensively

In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month.同上月相比，13个分项指数，包括：生产指数、新订单指数、新出口订单指数、积压订单指数、产成品库存指数、采购量指数、进口指数、购进价格指数、出厂价格指数、 The raw material inventory index, employee index, supplier distribution time index, and production and operation activities expectation index decreases, and the index decreases between 0.1 and 11.6 percentage points.

Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that traditional production off -season, insufficient market demand, and lower prosperity in high energy consumption industry are influencing factors affecting the decline of PMI in manufacturing.

Zhang Liqun, a special analyst of the China Logistics and Purchasing Federation, believes that the manufacturing PMI in July has shifted from rising from rising, indicating that endogenous downlink pressure is high. On the one hand, the efforts to control the epidemic and focus on the efforts of the three stress are making the company's production and operation conditions better; on the other hand, the influence of the outbreak is still from time to time, and the demand shrinkage has accumulated a long time, and multiple difficulties are longer. Time continues and superimposed, causing more and more companies to be in trouble. The two types of factors have grown up and growing away from the increasing increase in predicament. It is expected that it takes time.

"Endogenous downlink pressure generally has the characteristics of self -acceleration, and its revealing needs to be highly valued. To resolutely control the exudation of the epidemic situation of various possible new impacts on the production and operation of enterprises. As soon as possible, the demand for investment and consumption has been fully heated. Uniformly to accelerate the improvement of the production and operation conditions of enterprises, and strictly prevent and control the closure of enterprises. "Zhang Liqun said.

Wang Qing, the chief macro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, believes that the decline in the production index in July is large, far exceeding the seasonality, mainly due to the impact of the epidemic. The new order index is low. In addition to the short -term impact of the epidemic, the current consumption and investment demand is weak. The former is mainly related to the further promotion of residents' consumption capacity and confidence, and the latter shows that the impact of the decline in real estate on investment is still obvious.

Zheng Houcheng, director of the Institute of British Securities Research, told reporters that there was a situation of weak production in July. Considering that the manufacturing industry employees index and non -manufacturing practitioners have declined compared with the previous value, it is expected that the macro policy in the later period will actively actively act as an enlarged demand and strive to "stable employment."

Keeping restoration in some industries

According to the analyst of the China Logistics Information Center, Wentao pointed out that in July, the PMI and high -tech manufacturing PMIs of the equipment manufacturing industry were 51.2%and 51.5%, respectively. Essence The sub -index shows that the supply and demand growth rate of equipment manufacturing and high -tech manufacturing has remained at a relatively good level, indicating that although the growth rate of new kinetic energy has slowed down, it is still at the rise and the industrial structure continues to optimize.

Wen Tao said that there is a short -term factors that the current economic recovery has fluctuated. It has maintained a stable recovery in the second half of the year and still has the foundation and conditions. For example, the decline in corporate cost pressure is conducive to the recovery of corporate efficiency.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, 10 of the 21 industries surveyed, 10 industries PMI is located in the expansion range. Among them, PMI 52.0%, maintained expansion for two consecutive months, and production needs to continue to recover.

On the other hand, Zhao Qinghe pointed out that PMI, such as textiles, petroleum and coal and other fuel processing, black metal smelting and pressure -delay processing, continued to be located in the contraction range, which was significantly lower than the overall level of manufacturing. One of the main factors.

From the expectations of enterprise expectations, the production and operation activities of agricultural and sideline food processing, dedicated equipment, automobiles, railway ships, aerospace equipment and other industries are expected to be more than 59.0%of the high prosperity range, and the industry market is expected to be overall stable; and the textile industry, oil coal and oil coal and oil and oil and coal and oil and oil coal and oil and oil and coal and oil and oil and coal Other fuel processing industries and black metal smelting and pressure -delay industries have been located in the contraction range for 4 consecutive months, and related companies have insufficient confidence in the development prospects of the industry.

Non -manufacturing business activities maintain a better recovery rhythm

In July, China's non -manufacturing business activity index was 53.8%. Although it decreased by 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, it was still the secondary high during the year, and increased by 0.5 percentage points from the same period last year, which was higher than the average level in the first half of the year.

Wu Wei, an analyst at the China Logistics Information Center, said that the business activity index runs more than 53%for two consecutive months, showing that non -manufacturing business activities still maintain a good rhythm.Data show that of the 21 non -manufacturing industries surveyed, 16 industry business activities indexes are located in the expansion range. Among them, aviation transportation, accommodation, catering, ecological protection and public facilities management industries are higher than 60.0%.The demand continues to release, and the business volume of related industries has continued to recover quickly.

From the market expectations, the business activity expectation index is 58.8%, and it continues to be located in a higher prosperity range. The expected index of all industry business activities in the survey is above the critical point for two consecutive months.

In July, the business activity index of the construction industry was 59.2%, which was higher than 2.6 percentage points last month. The construction industry production activities accelerated.

Wu Wei believes that the continuous rise in supply and demand of the construction industry shows that investment -related activities continue to improve.In the second half of the year, with the support of special debt funds and credit funds, investment will still be an important starting point for steady growth.

Responsible editor: tactics

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