Zhang Junjun: Insufficient confidence in the current market body requires confidence to boost the length and the specimen and the symptoms and treat them

Economic Observation Network reporter Hu Yanming in the first half of this year, my country's economic operation showed a V -shaped growth trend. On July 30, Zhang Jun, former deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, stated on the "2022 Qingdao · China Wealth Forum" that the first quarter has basically continued the recovery growth trend since last year. 2.5%, it is already a hard -to -have achievement.

While seeing the significant economic recovery of the economy, Zhang Junruo believes that the current problem that the current economic operation requires high attention and solution is the problem of insufficient confidence in the market.

Inadequate market subject confidence

Zhang Junruo said that according to the center of the 10,000 companies in the center, the corporate development confidence index was only 46.1 in June this year, and the three consecutive months was lower than the level of the honor. Severe level. The same survey also shows that the proportion of companies that increased investment plans in the future will only be 26%, a decrease of 12.2 percentage points from 38.2%at the end of last year, and the normal levels of many years will generally not be less than 40%.

"What's more vigilant is that many companies not only adjusted or delayed investment expansion plans, but also chose an attitude of watching, waiting, lying flat, or even bankruptcy. While the company's confidence was insufficient, it was increased by employment pressure. Increased growth of income growth and uncertainty of epidemic control and long -term continuity, the problem of insufficient consumer confidence is also very prominent. In June, the consumer confidence index was only 88.9, and the average in the second quarter was only 87.5%. The lowest level. "Zhang Junpian said.

Zhang Junruo believes that the lack of confidence in market players first affects short -term demand and short -term growth. An outstanding problem that restricts the steady economic growth is the problem of weak domestic demand. In terms of consumption, the total retail sales of consumer goods nationwide in the first five months decreased by 1.5%year -on -year, and the actual decline was about 4%. Although there were relatively obvious improvements in June, a year -on -year increase of 3.1%, but in the first half of the year, in the first half of the year, it was 0.7%, which failed to reverse negative growth.

At the same time, Zhang Junruo said that the situation in investment is also similar. In the first half of the year, the growth rate of investment was relatively good, which was inseparable from the efforts of the government's expansion of investment. Especially the policy of moderately advanced infrastructure investment, played an important role in driving. From the statistical figures, the investment increased by 6.1%in the first half of the year, of which the fixed investment in the state -owned holding increased by 9.2%year -on -year, the infrastructure investment increased by 7.1%, and the investment of private fixed assets increased by only 3.5%year -on -year. -2.9%. It can be seen that the main force of investment growth is the government and state -owned enterprises, while enterprises, especially private enterprises, and foreign -funded enterprises are not confident and insufficient investment, which is the main reason for restricting the stable growth of investment. However, under the circumstances that the real estate market is sluggish, the land transfer income has declined significantly, the local finance is tight, the funding supporting capacity is weakened, and the project reserves are insufficient, the sustainability of infrastructure investment with government investment as the main funding source is facing great pressure.

"Insufficient corporate confidence and investment will not only affect short -term demand, but also affect the strength of medium and long -term development." Zhang Junpian said that especially the characteristics of corporate expectations and confidence have the characteristics of cycle strengthening and self -realization. Regardless of whether the actual situation is good or bad, as long as the general expectations are not good, the actual situation may become worse; on the contrary, if it is generally expected to be optimistic, the actual situation may be better. In addition, lack of confidence in market players may also become an important cause of economic and social risks. The recent causes of village and township banks and the problem of disconnection of loan supply are also related to the lack of confidence in market players. Therefore, confidence is more important than gold, and steady growth must first stabilize confidence.

Suggest from five aspects

Zhang Junruo said that the market subject insufficient confidence is multi -faceted and multi -level. There are both market weakness and policies and institutional reasons. There are both economic reasons and non -economic reasons. There are both domestic reasons and international reasons. Therefore, the strategy of response must be combined with lengths and both specimens.

First of all, we must accurately and efficiently coordinate the prevention and control of the epidemic and economic and social development with a scientific attitude. In the short term, the epidemic is the biggest uncertain factors affecting market players' expectations and confidence. Economic fluctuations in the first half of the year mainly affect the epidemic situation; what is the economic situation in the second half of the year, and the biggest uncertainties in the second half of the year are also the epidemic. Judging from some recently announced data, domestic economic activities have been weakly influenced by the epidemic since early July. Therefore, the scientific and accurate epidemic prevention and control in the second half of the year is still the key.

Therefore, it is recommended that: First of all, the spirit and requirements of the central government must comprehensively understand and implement the spirit and requirements of "the epidemic should be defended, the economy must be stable, and the development of the economy should be safe." Implement the "nine inaccurate" and resolutely eliminate the layers of layers, especially to resolutely eliminate the simplified urban approach and minimize the interference of the normal operation of the epidemic prevention and control of the economic and society. Even accountable. On the other hand, my country's epidemic prevention and control policies also need to continue to optimize and adjust in accordance with the characteristics and situation changes of the epidemic.

Second, the policy of expanding domestic demand must continue to work hard. The impact of this round of epidemic on the economy is no less than the last round. Moreover, from the perspective of consumer confidence and the impact of corporate expectations, it may be more than the last round. To boost the confidence of market players, not only must we help market entities through various rescue measures, but also to promote demand recovery, so that market entities have orders, income, and money. Although domestic demand has remedied since June, it is necessary to further increase the expansion of domestic demand in terms of the intensity of recovery and sustainability. To this end, we must first continue to grasp the implementation of policies, including loan delay payment policies, employment policies for stabilizing job protection, cost reduction policies, and home purchase credit policies. Judging from the situation reported by the State Council not long ago, there is room for further implementation. Secondly, we must strive to maintain the policy of expanding domestic demand, especially for investment. Judging from the recent information, the Party Central Committee and State Council have attached great importance to this work and made related deployments.

The third is to focus on improving the transparency of the policy and predictability. This is especially important for the current stability and boosting corporate confidence. At this stage, whether it is to promote economic green low -carbon transformation, prevent the disorderly expansion of capital, or the risk of deleveraging in real estate, and adjust the distribution of income to promote common prosperity, etc., it is a due meaning and necessary for promoting high -quality economic development. However, the adjustment of these policies will cause major changes in the operating environment of relevant enterprises and have a great impact on their competitive status and profitability. In order to meet new policy requirements, companies often need to not only increase new investment, but also take a certain time. Therefore, the adjustment of the policy needs to be fully considered the impact on the enterprise, and the promulgation of the policy must have a certain amount of advance, thereby leaving a necessary reasonable transition period for the adjustment of relevant enterprises.

Fourth, the optimization of the business environment should be further practical. The quality of the business environment has a great impact on corporate confidence. In recent years, my country's continuous improvement of the business environment has made great progress. It has been welcomed by enterprises, which has played an important guarantee role in the stable growth of my country's economy in recent years. However, in the survey, we also see that there is still a lot of room for further further practical work to optimize the business environment, especially some deeper issues need to break through. For example, companies reflected more prominently, and there are still serious issues of ownership discrimination in some areas. Some places have not been solved fundamentally. These issues have long -term existence. It is necessary to strengthen theoretical innovation and consolidate the system of institutional foundation, and crack through deepening reforms.

Fifth, we must further emancipate their minds and promote reform and opening up in critical areas to achieve more and more breakthrough progress. Reform and opening up can be said to be the greatest and fundamental factor that affects the confidence of the market. Reform has also made significant progress in some important areas, and has effectively promoted and guaranteed the continuous economic growth. At the same time, we must also see that compared with the requirements of accelerating the construction of a new development pattern and promoting high -quality economic development, compared with the expectations of the majority of market players, the progress of some important reforms is not satisfactory. On July 28th, the Central Political Bureau meeting was specifically put forward that it is necessary to use reform and opening up as the driving force for economic development, and put forward requirements from the aspects of state -owned enterprise reform, platform economic improvement, and deepening opening up. Essence

Finally, Zhang Jun expansion summarizes that stability and boosting the confidence of market players, whether for short -term steady growth, long -term sustainable and healthy development, have very important and basic functions. One measure can work alone, but it needs to be combined with length, comprehensive policies, and symptoms.

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