In the second quarter, it is difficult to hide the hidden concerns of European economic recession

Xinhua News Agency, Brussels, July 29 (International Observation) The growth of European economic recession in the second quarter

Xinhua News Agency reporter Kang Yilin Hao

Preliminary data released by the European Union Statistics on the 29th shows that after the seasonal adjustment, the GDP of the euro zone in the second quarter of this year increased by 0.7%month -on -month, and EU GDP increased by 0.6%month -on -month.

Analysts believe that despite the growth of the second quarter, with the decline of the economic restart effect after the new crown epidemic, the tightening of the tightening of the three stress of the energy crisis, high inflation and monetary policy may increase the hidden concern of the European economic recession.

Energy crisis is difficult to resolve

The EU is highly dependent on Russian fossil fuels. The energy crisis is the biggest dilemma facing it at the moment, seriously hindering the process of economic recovery.

Recently, Russia has greatly reduced natural gas supply to Europe. Claus Mueller, head of the Federal Network Bureau of Germany, said that the gas pipeline transmission volume of "Beixi-1" natural gas pipelines from Russia to Germany fell to 20%of the full load transportation on the 27th.

Analysts pointed out that in many European countries, they encountered high temperature this summer and tried their best to store gas this winter. Russia continued to restrict the supply of natural gas, which would lead to the intensification of European "gas shortage". The EU requires that member states to reach at least 80%of their gas storage capacity this winter may be difficult to achieve.

In order to cope with the energy crisis, EU member states have reached an agreement a few days ago to take voluntary measures to reduce the demand for natural gas this winter by 15%. If the shortage of natural gas supply at that time, the EU will take compulsory measures to restrict it.

Market analysts pointed out that it is not realistic to get rid of energy dependence on Russia in the short term, and it is difficult for other countries to meet the energy needs of European markets immediately. Recently, many European countries have successively announced the reopening of coal power plants or adopting measures to support coal power, which may interfere with the green transformation of European economy and adversely affect the European Union's response to climate change.

High inflation is bright red light

Since the beginning of this year, under the influence of many negative factors such as the Fed's radical interest rate hike effect and the spread of the European energy crisis, the inflation rate in the euro area has continued to rise. In July, the inflation rate of the euro area was 8.9%at an annual rate, exceeding market expectations, and reached a record high.

The EU Council Executive Vice Chairman Dongbrovskis said that the impact of the continuous rise in energy prices is spreading to other fields, making inflation more common. Malche Wizelals, a senior economist of the Dutch Cooperative Bank, said that the inflation direction depends to a large extent on energy price changes, but it will not fall quickly.

Veronica Rocharova, the head of the European Economic Department of Swiss Bank of Switzerland, said that due to the accelerated shrinkage of consumers' actual income, consumption is suppressed. It is expected that the tourism industry can only boost the European economy this summer.

The inflation rate of the euro area has continued to rise, bringing greater pressure on the European Central Bank. Analysts pointed out that the European Central Bank's monetary policy lags behind the inflation situation, making interest rate hikes very limited impact on the current inflation. Steady interest rate hikes may increase the risk of economic recession and the risk of debt crisis in the euro zone, and the European Central Bank will make a dilemma when formulating policies.

Speiros Andreos, a senior European economist in Paris, France, said the opportunity window for the European Central Bank to continue to raise interest rates with the weakening of the economy is closed.

European Economy Step

The European economy, which is deeply in high inflation mud, is shifting from low speed to "stepping on the brakes", and the risk of recession further intensifies.

Andrew Kenning Ham, the chief European economist of Kaitou, pointed out that the economic data released on the 29th will be "the best quarterly growth rate in a period of time." As the euro zone inflation is over expectation, the European economy is towards a very difficult period, and it is expected that it will decline later this year.

Goldman Sachs has also lowered the expectations of economic growth in Europe. Goldman Sachs expects that even if Russia does not completely cut off energy supply, this year, Europe may have two consecutive quarters of negative growth technical recessions. If natural gas supply has more severe interruption, sovereign debts are under pressure or affected by the decline in the US economy, the euro zone economy may have a more serious decline.

The European Commission acknowledges that economic recession may happen. If Russia completely cuts off natural gas supply in Europe, the earliest economic recession may occur this year. The European Commission is responsible for economic affairs, Moronney, said that the uncertainty in the next few quarters is still high. The EU should be prepared to respond to the changing situation when necessary.

In addition, the recent rebound in the European epidemic may further disrupt the economic situation. Zhentiloni said that the epidemic is still a major risk, and it cannot rule out the possibility of the emergence of the epidemic and bring new destruction to the economy.

[Editor in charge: Liu Yang]

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