The Shanghai Index's historical data in August exceeds 50 % of the increase in institutions.

30Jul

Our reporter Zhao Ziqiang Ren Shibi's end of the A -share bank in July, and the shock fell into the main tone of the three major indexes of the month. The market was structural differentiation, and the industry's performance was outstanding. For the upcoming August, market participants generally have a partial attitude, and believe that after the recovery of July, the market in August is expected to fluctuate. In the 31st year, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index rose more than 50%in August. As of July 29, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell 4.28%within the month. From the perspective of the case of the first -level industry, 8 industries in 31 industries have increased in July. Among them, the cumulative increase of 5.33%during the environmental protection industry, followed by the machinery and equipment industry and automobile industry. The cumulative increase during the period was 5.15, respectively. %And 5.09%, the cumulative increases of more than 3%during public utilities, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing, and communications industries; the cumulative declines in the four industries such as building materials, food and beverages, banking, and social services have exceeded 9%. In response, Chen Li, chief economist of Chuancai Securities and director of the Institute, told a reporter from the Securities Daily: "In July, a certain decline in the market was affected by the global economic recession and the impact of interest rate hikes. The price of commodity commodity declines to varying degrees, driving the decline in the relevant sectors, and a certain drag on the index; on the other hand, the market still has some concerns about the real estate industry, so the real estate and banking sectors have fallen largely. Generally speaking, in July, in July, in July, in July, in July, in July, in July, in July, in July The market style is still the main growth stocks with policy support and rapid growth. "Cai Fangyuan, chief strategy analyst of China Galaxy Securities, said that in July, the A -share market risk appetite has declined, investors are more cautious, and the average daily turnover remains 10,000 to 10,000 to 10,000. 100 million yuan. After a strong rebound of the concept of clean energy and new energy vehicles, the consumer sector rebounds, and the emotions of investors are at the upward stage. In this case, the main line of performance -driven will gradually highlight. In the face of the upcoming August, how will the market conditions be performed? Historical data shows that in the past 31 years, the market has risen in August 17 times, and the number of declines is 14 times, and the chance of rising is 54.84%. The number of times is 15 times, the number of declines is 16 times, and the chance of rising is 48.39%. Judging from the increase in August of the year, the increase in the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index in 1994, 1991, and in the middle of August 2007 ranked among the top three on the list of the month of the month, rising 135.19%, 24.08%, and 16.73%, respectively. The largest three years of declines were in 2009, 1992, and 2008, respectively, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell 21.81%, 21.75%, and 13.63%. From the data, it can be seen that the rise in August is far more than the decline. Three factors may help A shares shock repair For the market in August, most institutions are optimistic, and it is expected that the A -share market is expected to have a trend of shock repair. Chen Li said that, first of all, in the overseas market, the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hikes in July are in line with market expectations. With the recent global commodity prices fall, overseas inflation is expected to control, and the pace of interest rate hikes is expected to slow down. The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on July 28 pointed out that monetary policy should maintain reasonable liquidity, increase credit support for enterprises, and build investment funds for new credit and infrastructure construction by policy banks. It is expected that the domestic liquidity will be abundant as a whole in the second half of the year; in the end, as in terms of corporate profits, with the implementation of many domestic bailout policies, industries that have been affected by the epidemic in the first half of the year are expected to usher in improvement. Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, told reporters that the Fed and the European Central Bank may continue to raise interest rates in the second half of the year, while the Central Bank of China has maintained the monetary policy of "me -oriented" to maintain reasonable liquidity. From the perspective of low interest rates and liquidity, the A -share market is expected to continue to go out of independence in the second half of the year, and structural opportunities are more prominent. "Looking forward to the A -share market in August, on the one hand, the monetary policy environment will still be loose and the fundamental fundamentals will gradually improve; on the other hand, August is the dense disclosure period of the semi -annual report, 'performance is king' or the market is still the most in the market. At the core focus, the performance exceeds the expected variety will perform well. "Wang Chunxiu, manager of Dongtuo Investment Fund, told reporters. Wanlian Securities stated that liquidity is generally stable, funds are concentrated in the growth sector, and some popular track valuations have risen significantly. If the economic restoration is accelerated, investors are expected to go up, and the market is expected to continue its shock in August.

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Picture ｜ Bag Picture Network Station Cool Hero Production | Zhang Xin

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