Cai Yan: In the era of negative population growth in the future, wealth management should consider how to better allocate cakes | News

Text/Fu Bixiao

On July 30, at the "2022 Qingdao · China Wealth Forum", Cai Yan, former vice president of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, chief expert of the National High -end Think Tank, and a member of the Central Bank Monetary Policy Committee, said that the current population census data shows that the current population growth rate in my country has already been It is close to zero growth, and the proportion of population over 65 years old accounts for more than 14%. According to the World Health Organization, my country has entered an aging society. From 2023-2035, my country's labor population will accelerate. According to the latest forecast, about this year or next year, my country's population will reach its peak, and then enter negative growth, and the total population will be surpassed by India.

Cai Yan said that if the impact of the past 10 years is the supply side, the current impact comes from the demand side, especially the consumer demand of residents will become the new constraints of China's economy.

When my country responded to the supply side impact in 2010, China also adjusted the demand structure, and no longer relying on external demand, exports, and investment, and gradually turned to consumption, especially the consumption of residents became the most important driving force.

The deceleration of population growth is not conducive to consumption. At the same time, economic growth slows down, and the increase in residents' income will slow down, which will affect consumption. Popularity structure effects must not be ignored. Different from developed countries, the income level of the elderly in my country is generally lower than young people. After retirement, there is worries. For future generations, the elderly are more inclined to save savings and have low spending power.

In addition to the long -term impact of the demand side of the population factor, my country must also respond to the impact of an epidemic.

Therefore, Cai Yan suggested that domestic demand, especially consumption, should be continuously expanded. "The main task of the next 10 or 20 years is how to make the demand side factors meet the potential growth rate." The market entities are not only producers, but also consumers. The latter is the key to determining whether demand can be picked up, and whether economic recovery and long -term growth are sustainable.

Cai Yan then pointed out that in response to the current insufficient consumption, insufficient income, and long -term demand constraints, the government needs to play a greater role. It is also necessary to adjust the structure and direction of the government's role and require the government to have a larger scale.

Generally speaking, as the per capita income level increases, government expenditure accounts for GDP. At present, the proportion of government expenditure accounts for GDP should be significantly increased. At the same time, the government expenditure structure is adjusted, and it is reduced from direct economic activities. It is more in terms of social protection, social supply, and social welfare. In the short term, sending consumer vouchers to residents is also what the government has deserved specific functions during this period. If consumption cannot return to normal, it is difficult to achieve a real recovery.

In the era of negative population, my country's policies, corporate decisions, and personal choices will change. Population plays a catalyst in resource allocation, and the negative population growth means that the increase in resource mobility decreases. Economic development is increasingly relying on the resource re -allocation.

Cai Yan pointed out that wealth management and the entire financial industry may be pursuing big cakes in the past, but in the future to better allocate cakes. New factors should also be considered in the future development model, operation mechanism, and product innovation of the financial industry.

First of all, when designing products, changes from the supply side to demand side constraints must be considered; second, the direction of fiscal expenditure will change, and it is more inclined to people's livelihood and social welfare, which will affect financial and wealth management. Once again, the market entity of the market is from the right of market entities. The changes from producers and operators to the family have also greatly inspired the financial industry.

Finally, many wealth managers have focused on middle -income groups in the past. In the future, middle -income groups account for a relatively small proportion of the population of China. During the critical period of realizing basic modernization, the elderly in our country, the rural population, and migrant workers that have just been poverty alleviation are facing the process of entering the middle income group from low income. These groups should become the objects and source of profit for financial and wealth management Essence

Edit: Meng Junlian

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