There are three ways to reverse the fertility rate, there are three ways

Avoid fertility punishment, a considerable number of highly educated women can only choose the former in their careers and families.

Author: Liu Jinzu Yiming

Figure: Tuwa Creative

Guide

One || In modern society, the reason why fertility rate is reduced is nothing more than two factors: unable to give birth, unwilling to give birth. There are men and women on fertility, but there is no doubt that female factors occupy a decisive position.

的 || Another reason to postpone fertility is women who have been better educated, increasing the participation of social employment. After the first enrollment, young people, due to employment and the consideration of stable occupations later, will inevitably put a lot of energy on work, so it will inevitably postpone the establishment of a family schedule.

Three || There are only three things that society and the government can do: reduce the direct cost of fertility, reduce the indirect cost of fertility, and make older women re -fertility through technological progress and legal reform.

Population aging is a huge social and economic problems. The two main factors to control aging speed are people's expected life and fertility rates. Generally speaking, developing countries have a short life expectancy and high fertility rate, so the population structure is young, and aging is a iconic state of developed countries. Due to the slow life growth, the main factor that determines the degree of aging of the country is the great change of fertility.

To maintain the constant population, the average fertility rate of a country needs to reach 2.1 (the average of 2.1 children per woman). As of 2019, China's fertility rate has fallen to 1.5 (in 2020 due to the new crown epidemic to 1.3), it will inevitably lead to negative growth in the total population.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that at the end of 2021, the national population was 1412.6 million, an increase of only 480,000 from the end of the previous year. However, in the 20 years after the founding of the People's Republic of China, the fertility rate was as high as 6.4. According to the World Bank statistics, from 1965 to 1980, China ’s total fertility rate from 6.4 to 2.6; in the 1980s, the total fertility rate has gone through a short period of time. It was lower than 2.1 in 1993.

Why is there a huge decline in fertility? The family planning policy that has been implemented in the 1970s must have produced important staged effects. However, in the long run, the decline in fertility rate is actually an inevitable product of economic and social development, and no family planning will definitely happen.

Among them, one example is that the country has released the second child and the third child in 2016 and 2021, but the results are very small. The problem now is not to be born, but unwilling to give birth. Another example is a country that does not implement family planning in the world, and also experienced a significant decline in fertility.

World Bank data statistics show that if countries around the world are divided into three camps: low, middle and high -level camps, from 1960 to 2019, the total fertility rate of each camp will decline. Among them, the average total and fertility rate of low -income economies dropped from 6.59 to 4.57; middle -income economies dropped from 5.60 to 2.33; high -income economies dropped from 3.03 to 1.57. Therefore, the decline in fertility rate is a global trend. Although China has decreased rapidly and large scale, it is not a special case.

In modern society, the reason why fertility is reduced is nothing more than two factors: they cannot be born or unwilling. There are men and women on fertility, but there is no doubt that female factors occupy a decisive position. Therefore, if we want to analyze the changes in fertility, we must analyze the changes in women's fertility thinking; to analyze the changes in women's thinking, we must analyze the changes in women's economic and political status in society.

The cause of more difficult fertility

Not all women have fertility. Even after women who are healthy, after they enter the age of 20, with their age, the quality and activity of the eggs will gradually decrease, which will lead to the decay of fertility in women year by year. Studies have shown that the first-year natural conception rate of women aged 20-24 is 86%, and it will drop to 63%by age of 30 to 34, and 52%at the age of 35 to 39.

Even if women want to have children, they will have considerable challenges after the age of 30, and the probability of being able to conceive naturally every year is only half. After several years of hard work, the probability of "life" is very high, but "more life" is not easy, and often requires medical assistance. With the development of society, the social and psychological age of people is generally pushed back. Although the age of 18 is still the age of legal adults, adults in their twenties are often not independent in economy. The career has just begun. It is seen as a "child".

With the push of society and psychological age, women's fertility age is pushed again and again. OECD data statistics, the average fertility age of women in OECD developed countries in 2019 has reached 30.5 years, and the average childbirth age of one child reached 29.2 years. From 1970 to 30 years of 2019, the average fertility age of women in these countries increased from 27.5 to 30.5 years. In South Korea, Japan, Spain, Italy and other countries, women's average fertility age is as high as 32 years old. The average fertility age of Chinese women has also increased from 25 in 1990 to 28 years old. Therefore, the possibility of "multi -life" has become less and less likely for most women without medical assistance.

Why does this social and psychological age appear back? An important reason is the advancement of science and technology, and the improvement of education that matches it. Fifty years ago, a high school graduate could be regarded as a "cultural person". Now graduating from college is only the foundation, and it is only a master's and doctoral talents. At the same time, the educational time will inevitably be pushed back to social work. After the undergraduate push, 4 years after the undergraduate, 2 years after the master's degree, and the doctoral push for 4 to 5 years. A set of data from OECD shows that the proportion of young women in OECD countries (25-34 years old) in 2020 has received more than 50%of higher education. Compared with women (55-64 years old) born in the 1960s, the average Grow up 20%; South Korea, with the highest proportion of women in high education, has been nearly 80%in 2020, an increase of 50%over 55-64 years old; in China, women aged 20-24 in 2020 receive higher education ( The proportion of college) has reached 57%, an increase of 50%from the 55-59-year-old group.

Another reason to postpone fertility is women who have been better educated, which increases the participation of social employment. After the first enrollment, young people, due to employment and the consideration of stable occupations later, will inevitably put a lot of energy on work, so it will inevitably postpone the establishment of a family schedule.

From 1985 to 2019, the labor participation rate of OECD countries from 25-54-year-olds increased from 62%to 74%. Data from the Ministry of Civil Affairs of China showed that among Chinese registered weddings, the proportion of marriage after 30 years of marriage increased from 20%in 2005 to 46%in 2020. It is usually late -marriage with late marriage. This is particularly obvious in Asian countries that are traditionally tradition and do not accept non -marriage children. In 2019, the average first marriage age in South Korea is 30.6 years old, and the average fertility age of a baby for Korean women is 31.6 years.

Reflecting "fertility punishment"

Better education and higher social labor participation have greatly increased women's economic status and have higher economic autonomy. Economic independence has led to a complete disintegration of "women rely on marriage to obtain economic protection."

When marriage and childbirth are no longer a must -have for women, the "concept of marriage and childbirth" will also change. Whether women treat whether they are married, when they get married, have fertility, and when they have their own choices. When women's economic ability is enhanced, marriage and family no longer need to maintain survival, and divorce becomes easier and easier, which is particularly obvious in China after reform and opening up.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from 1985 to 2020, China's divorce rate increased linearly from 0.44 ‰ to 3.09 ‰, and the divorce ratio (divorce/marriage couple) increased from 5.6%to 53.6%. In other words, in 2020, every newly added marriage couple in the country will add a divorce couple. From 1970 to 2019, the average divorce rate of 29 countries in OECD increased from 1.4 ‰ to 2.0 ‰, ignoring the general influence of the general low marriage rate in Europe and the United States, and the divorce rate of these countries still increased by 43%.

In contemporary society, the fertility will add a lot of economic expenses to the family. People often notice the direct costs of raising children: raw costs, education costs, daily consumption, housing expenses, and so on. For ordinary married families living in the metropolis, having a child often increases the cost of living by more than 20%.

But people often ignore the indirect cost of fertility, that is, the cost of career opportunities that parents, especially mothers, to raise their children. The so -called opportunity cost is a career development opportunity and higher income that give up because of taking care of children.

The statistical results of Payscale, a US professional compensation research agency, showed that the income growth of professional women was actually slightly higher than men before the age of 29, but the growth rate decreased significantly afterwards. The peak revenue and total income of their lives were generally lower than men. Compared with the peak level of men and women, women increased by 65%compared to the age of 22, while men increased by 93%, which was 43%higher than women.

The natural explanation of this phenomenon is that women usually start childbirth after the age of 29, passing the "negative signal" to the employer that they cannot fully invest in work. Men with less burden are the "fertility punishment" of so -called professional women. Avoid fertility punishment, a considerable number of highly educated women can only choose the former in their careers and families.

A set of data of OECD shows that the average of at least 30%of women aged 25-49 in 20 developed countries lived in a sub-family family in 2008. Among them, the proportion of non-sub-children in high education women exceeded 40%, which is higher than high school education women 10 %.

How big is the scale of "fertility punishment"? Based on PAYSCALE data, we made the following calculations on the cost of fertility opportunities for women in the United States in the United States: replacing the salary curve of the middle -class female 35 years old (the increase in men and women after 35) to the male increase curve, and the 5%discount rate will be a 5%discount rate. The cumulative revenue of 22-60 years old has a cumulative annual income, and the total fertility opportunities for the entire career of the United States for the entire career in the United States are as high as $ 329,000.

According to similar methods, we then calculated the cost of career fertility of Singapore and Japanese women. Singapore was $ 759,000 and Japan was US $ 431,000. The indirect cost of fertility is a small amount, and the size of the direct cost is in the order of magnitude. How to improve fertility

The increasing status of women in society and economy has caused the logic of family and fertility to change tremendous changes. From a modern perspective, it can be seen that women have taken the responsibility of human reproduction for thousands of years when women have lost their personal freedom and suffer from social discrimination for thousands of years.

When women have free choices, she is pursuing the happiness of her life. She is only part of her childhood. Naturally, the happiness brought by children and the direct and indirect costs of their bands will be compared. In this comparison, if there is no one (male) or a group of people (society) to help her digest these costs, she often makes decisions that are not born or less. The decline in fertility has a strong inertia. What can society and the government do to reverse the decline in fertility?

Obviously, no society should be unlikely to reverse the trend of women's liberation (the recent ban on abortion in the United States is a special case). It should not prevent women from obtaining power and achievements in education and employment. Equal rights with the family. Therefore, there are only three things that society and the government can do: reduce the direct costs of fertility, reduce the indirect cost of fertility, and make older women regain their fertility through technological progress and legal reforms.

Subsidies for direct and indirect costs of fertility can definitely play a purpose of improving fertility. However, because the comprehensive cost of fertility is high, in developed countries, it is often magnitude of hundreds of thousands of dollars, so if the subsidy is relatively small, the effect will not be obvious.

For the reduction of the direct cost of fertility, the government's economic subsidy is the most direct and most commonly used way. Subsidies include parenting subsidies, tax reductions, housing allowances, and special subsidies set up for low -income families. This subsidy is not a small number from the level of transferring payment throughout the country, but compared with the total cost of family fertility calculated earlier, it seems insignificant and cannot play an immediate role.

In terms of subsidies, some European countries have done more thoroughly in reducing the indirect cost of fertility. One approach is to popularize public care facilities, reduce the cost of parenting for women, and ensure women's employment. Preschool education in Sweden, France, Denmark and other countries not only cover children aged 3-6, but also children aged 0-2 years old. Parenting burden. France, Denmark, and Sweden's 0-2-year-old infants and young children's nursery rates are as high as 50%. In contrast, China's 0-2-year-old children's nursery rate is less than 5%.

In addition, the government generally provides public subsidies for childcare institutions. Families to enjoy childcare services only need to pay a small amount of fees. In order to ensure that women's employment rights are not affected by parenting, fertility leave in these countries usually not only contains pregnancy leave, but also paid parenting leave for more than half a year to more than one year. As a result, Sweden, Denmark, France, and other countries not only have a high fertility rate, but their mother's employment rate is also at a high level in the OECD countries.

Another approach is to vigorously promote the concept of gender equality and promote the balanced division of labor in men and women. The concept of gender equality in Nordic is an important factor in maintaining a stable fertility rate. Parents in Sweden can share paid parenting leave for 480 days, and their father's parenting leave will also get additional "gender equality rewards". French parents have 26 weeks of childcare leave; Norwegian parents shared paid parenting leave for 49-59 weeks, of which the father's quota childbirth fake cannot be transferred to the mother. Data from the Norwegian Bureau of Statistics show that the proportion of father's use of parenting leave continues to rise, and the time for taking care of children and housework also shows a significant positive correlation with the fertility rate.

Is these methods use? The answer is yes. The total fertility rate of Sweden, France, and Denmark has remained above 1.7 in the past two years, and is the country with the highest fertility rate in Europe. It should be noted that the reason why this approach works may not be related to its specific way, but is related to the economic value of maternity subsidies. France, Sweden and other countries have paid high economic costs for their social parenting high benefits. Family welfare expenditures in France in OECD countries in 2017 (including economic subsidies, tax reduction and child care services) accounted for 3.6%, 3.4%in Sweden, and an average of 2.3%of OECDs, while South Korea and the United States each each. If China also implements French policies, 3.6%of GDP is a scale of 3.6 trillion per year for China, but it is only slightly smaller than the current total educational expenses.

Finally, a relatively low cost but obvious method of social benefits is through scientific and technological progress and laws and regulations. Through medical intervention, women can maintain high fertility through artificial fertilization methods after 30 years of age. This method does not reduce the direct or indirect cost of fertility. However, women who have to postpone marriage and career have to postpone marriage and childbearing, and still maintain a higher fertility ability after the decline of fertility. Essence

(Professor of Liu Jin Department of Changjiang Business School, a researcher of the Yangtze River Business School of the Yangtze River Business School)

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