How to make good use of policy tool boxes to keep interactive buildings and stabilize people's livelihood?

Early discovery and effective early warning real estate risk

On July 28, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a meeting to analyze the current economic situation and deploy economic work in the second half of the year. The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to keep the safety bottom line in all aspects. It is necessary to stabilize the real estate market, adhere to the positioning of houses for living, not for speculation, because the city's policy uses a good policy toolbox to support rigid and improving housing needs, compact local government responsibilities, keep interactive buildings, stabilize stability People's livelihood.

At present, the property market is in depth. How should the policy be forced in the next step? How to prevent the risk of the property market? Where will the market go from?

Highlight the importance of stabilizing the property market

Yan Yuejin, the research director of the Think Tank Center of the E -House Research Institute, told China News Weekly that the meeting first mentioned the "stable real estate market" to fully illustrate the importance of stabilizing the real estate market. This statement has important guiding significance, and localities will take stable real estate as an important direction of work to promote the healthy development of the real estate market.

The National Bureau of Statistics recently announced that from January to June this year, the national real estate development investment was 6831.4 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 5.4%. The sales area of ​​commercial housing was 68.923 million square meters, a year -on -year decrease of 22.2%.

Lian Ping, Chief Economist and Dean of the Research Institute of Zhixin Investment, told China News Weekly that the real estate market has shown a comprehensive downward trend, the investment and consumption of the property market are suppressed, and dozens of dozens of dozens of dozens of dozens of construction materials, building materials, durable consumer goods, etc. Industry, this is bound to bring continuous increase in negative pressure on domestic demand growth and increase the risk of economic operation.

Lian Ping said that in the first half of 2022, the real estate output value accounted for 6.7%of GDP, and real estate development investment accounted for 25.2%of the investment in fixed assets, which was more indirectly contributed to GDP, which is an important durable consumer product. In the second half of the year, the goal of stabilizing growth in the second half of the year is important to stabilize the real estate market. The stability and recovery of the growth rate of real estate investment will play an important role in stabilizing economic growth.

Zhao Xiuchi, a professor at the University of Economics and Trade and vice chairman and secretary -general of the Beijing Real Estate Law Society, told China News Weekly that stabilizing the real estate market is important.

In addition, Zhao Xiuchi stated that the meeting once again reiterated the positioning of "housing does not fry", showing that "houses do not stir -fry" are still unwavering. Only by adhering to "houses and not stir -fry" can we suppress speculative behavior and allow the property market to run smoothly.

Chen Wenjing, director of market research director of the Index Division of the Medium Finger Research Institute, told China News Weekly that in the face of the instability of the epidemic, the suspension of some real estate projects, and the exposure of corporate risks, the importance of "stabilizing real estate" is even more prominent. This meeting still emphasizes that "insisting on the house is used for living, not a positioning for speculation", which reflects the contention of the central policy.

How to use the policy toolbox well?

Earlier on April 29, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to emphasize that "supporting localities to improve the real estate policy from the local area and support rigid and improved housing needs."

In many places, positive property market regulation policies have been introduced, including reducing down payment, house purchase subsidies, and increased provident fund loans. However, from the latest performance, the market is still in a deep game, and the policy effect is weaker than expected.

According to the monitoring data of the middle finger research institute, about 220 provinces and cities across the country have relaxed the real estate regulatory policy since this year. Policies of various localities have slowed down. As of July 27, a total of 73 provinces and cities have issued more than 80 policies.

From the perspective of the market trend, the market activity of key cities in July has declined compared with June. According to the monitoring of the middle finger research institute, since July, the weekly transaction area of ​​the 50 cities of commercial housing has decreased by about 30%. It takes time.

Yan Yuejin said that compared to previously, the meeting of this meeting's "using a good use of policy tool boxes" has important new ideas. The focus is on the implementation of policy implementation. It is necessary to exert a better policy effect and maintain the industry's stability.

Regarding how to use the policy tool box to make good use of the policy tool box, Liu Lijie, a market analyst at the Shell Research Institute, told China News Weekly that the property market policy tool box contains two aspects, one is the demand side, and the other is the supply side. From the perspective of demand, in addition to reducing the threshold for buying housing and reducing the cost of buying housing, reducing the cost of buying housing, housing subsidies, and issuing consumer coupons in promoting housing consumption in addition to the purchase threshold of purchase, loan restrictions, and sales. See, the policy support will be more focused on the supply side in the later period, such as the optimization of pre -sale funds supervision, and the policy of mission of real estate companies.

Lian Ping suggested that commercial banks accelerate the development of loan approval and issuance, and appropriately increase the proportion of development loans in the loan balance to meet the needs of real estate enterprises. Trust, REITs and other tools, introduce non -performing asset management companies, etc. to jointly promote projects with short -term liquidity issues as soon as possible, slowly release the cash flow and debt pressure of housing companies, reduce their liquidity risks and debt default risks; cancel or adjust competition High -standard construction plans, appropriately reduce the amount of deposit payment, extend the transfer of deposit deposit, reduce the starting price of some plots, and reduce the land premium rate limit, and revitalize the land construction land.

Regarding the meeting again, supporting rigid and improving housing needs, Yan Yuejin stated that in the second half of the year, it is still an important stage of protecting and supporting reasonable housing consumption needs. Strengthen the risk of prevention of the property market

Liu Lijie said that the preservation of diplomatic relations is an important measure to stabilize the people's livelihood. In addition, to ensure that the project is substantially resumed, it can give buyers confidence and help guide market expectations.

In recent years, affected by many factors such as the decline in the market, a number of development business performance has declined, the capital chain has crisis, and the risk of accumulation of the property market has become increasingly greater.

Kerry Real Estate Research Institutions analyzed that the scale of housing companies' bonds in the first half of 2022 was 341.7 billion yuan, and there were two waves peaks in the second half of 2022, especially in July. Essence If housing companies cannot recover funds by issuing new debts or sales repayments, as the debt expires, the risk of debt defaults will continue to increase.

Earlier, the relevant person in charge of the China Banking Regulatory Commission stated that it would guide banks to actively participate in the research on a rational solution of funds and hard gaps under the overall framework of the local party committee and government "insured" work arrangements, and do a good job of credit delivery; effectively meet real estate enterprises Reasonable financing demand, etc.

Liu Lijie said that this time it clearly proposes that the insurance diploma has strong instructions and targetedness. It is expected that more cities will propose clear solutions in the second half of the year to resolve the crisis of delivery and ensure the repairs of confidence in the new housing market.

Zhao Xiuchi said that local governments should effectively bear the main responsibility, and help developers overcome the difficulties encountered under the epidemic through various policy means such as finance, finance, and land, ensure that they are handed over on time to make the people live and work in peace.

Lian Ping suggested that for the rotten project of the stop work, the supervisory department is advised to actively promote buyers to communicate and negotiate with relevant developers and banks, to clarify the rights and responsibilities of all parties as much as possible, reduce the losses of home buyers as much as possible, and solve the problem and risks smoothly.

In addition, Lian Ping believes that under the background of the increasing risk of the property market, it is necessary to establish a real estate financial risk monitoring system that is adapted to local conditions and dynamically adjust, so as to discover and effectively early warning real estate financial risks.

To this end, he suggested that, in view of the differences in the market in our country, the actual situation of various places should be carried out to specific analysis of the supply and demand trend and supply and demand structure of the real estate market. responsibility. Adjust the distribution of financial resources in time for the results of monitoring and evaluation to ensure the security and development of real estate finance.

Author: Liu Debing [email protected])

Edit: Li Zhiquan

- END -