Zheng's eyes look at the market: The market is difficult to have a market.
Author:Daily Economic News Time:2022.07.28
The Fed announced that it had raised interest rate hikes overnight, and US stocks rose sharply. On Thursday, the Asia -Pacific stock market rose, and A shares and Hong Kong stocks performed relatively weakly. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose slightly by 0.21%to 3282.58 points, while the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 0.40%to 203.24 points, the GEM composite index rose 0.14%, the science and technology 50 index rose 1.19%, the HSI index fell 0.23%, the Hang Seng Technology Index Index Index, the Hang Seng Technology Index Index Micro rose 0.35%.
The major A -share stock indexes in the morning have undertaken the momentum of the surrounding rise, but the high opening is limited, and after half an hour, almost all the increase is spit. Just when the stock index was sluggish, the bank stocks were anxious when they lost the opportunity, so the stock index went up again. However, bank stocks also pulled a wave, and then there was no momentum, so it eventually dragged back the stock index to vomit a lot of increases.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike is in line with expectations, but because it has not prompts the interest rate hike of the next interest rate meeting, the market has faded the Fed's subsequent interest rate hike. At present, the market's expectations for the Fed's September rate of interest rate hikes are generally 50 basis points, and the expected expectations of the late interest rate hike is lower. In other words, the market believes that the Fed's most violent interest rate hike process has ended.
For A shares, the above news is good. The net inflow of funds from the north was 2.733 billion yuan on Thursday. Of course, this amount is not large, but it can also reflect the basic attitude of foreign capital.
If the peripheral interest rate hikes are too fierce, almost all emerging markets will bear pressure. At most, we have stronger economic toughness and relatively small pressure. Recently, some emerging markets have indeed a lot of news, typical, such as Sri Lanka. If you analyze it in detail, although there are many reasons for problems such as such economies, it is undeniable that the Fed is one of the important reasons.
From the perspective of A -share market on Thursday, although most of the weights are not available, non -weight shares are still good. Among the many rising stocks, the performance of semiconductor, PCB and other technology stocks has performed significantly, and a few sectors such as airport shipping, pharmaceuticals and creatures have weakened. On the whole, it seems that most sectors have some good stocks, which seems difficult to summarize. I think this is normal, because it is a recent newspaper season, and there are more companies that have announced the semi -annual report or performance trailer, so the effect of the section of the market every day is definitely weaker than usual. Taking on Thursday as an example, when most tourist stocks performed slightly, China ’s exemption rose significantly due to performance trailers.
Next, the broader market may continue to fluctuate, and I think the stock index is difficult to fluctuate too much. On Wednesday, the inter -bank market overnight repurchase interest rate fell below 1%since 2021, and the exchanges' Treasury repurchase interest rate has not significantly rebounded due to the end of the month. The above interest rate environment is very likely to weaken the central bank's motivation to release more liquidity. In case the central bank once again picks up the slight and symbolic reverse repurchase action at the beginning of the month, then the stock index may be under pressure.
In the past two weeks, the central bank is slightly loose in liquidity, but investors should not forget that this is very likely to be related to the well -known tough issues of the property market. It is not difficult to guess that if the property market problem can be solved relatively smoothly in the future, the central bank may slowly return to caution.
Although the stock index is difficult to have a quotation, individual stock markets will be more lively due to the interim. It is recommended that investors choose the interim reporting and the more favorable variety participation in the second half of the performance. Of course, it is necessary to evaluate the relative position of the stock price to see if the performance of good target stocks is overdrawn by the market.
Of course, such an assessment is easy to do, so I think that investors with insufficient research ability may wish to copy the "homework" of better reputation institutions. If you have to think about it yourself, I suggest that the funds can be scattered moderately.
The author has opened a column on the WeChat platform. Readers can directly view the author's latest point of view through WeChat every Sunday to Thursday evening. For details, please pay attention to the WeChat public account. Each Eye (WeChat: NJCJNEWS) can be followed (WeChat: NJCJNEWS)
Daily Economic News
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