The giant "downtime", the opponent is not a company or a hacker, but ...

Author:Look at the think tank Time:2022.07.28

What can the giant "turn"?

On July 19, Google and Oracle suffered a "downtime" in the data center of London, England, and the cloud services that stored massive user data and many online services were offline.

The two giants couldn't think of their opponents were not other companies or hackers. "This is an accident related to the cooler." The two companies gave a similar explanation.

Oracle Company explained that the cooler failed when it exceeded its design limit. As a result, the temperature of the London Data Center has risen, which triggers the server protection measures and power off, causing some Internet services to offline.

Defeating precision machines and human wisdom is extreme high temperature spreading the northern hemisphere.

On July 19, in a country like the United Kingdom, which usually does not exceed 20 ° C in the summer, it has recorded the highest temperature in history since it is recorded. London Heatho Airport observed the extreme highest temperature in Britain in the UK, 40.2 ° C.

The heat waves also rushed in western Europe.

The Director of the General Administration of Health, Fredus, revealed that from July 7 to 18, Portugal has risen to 1063 due to high temperature. French Minister of Health and Disease Prevention called on the 18th that the hospital's work in response to high -temperature medical practitioners was "saturated". It is recommended that the public reduce going out, drinking water regularly, and avoiding physical energy.

Ren Guoyu, the chief expert of the National Climate Center and a part -time professor at the Chinese University of Geosciences (Wuhan), told the South Wind Wind Wind Wind Windstone that this year's high -temperature heat waves appearing in the high latitude region of the northern hemisphere this year are more abnormal than all year round, and the performance of western Europe is even more abnormal.

High temperature invades many places in Asia. The monitoring of the China National Climate Center showed that the highest temperature of 71 national meteorological stations in the country broke through the historical pole value, of which the highest temperature in Lingshou, Tancheng, Zhengding, and Yunnan Yanjin Ri of Hebei reached 44 ° C.

Since July, many people in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Sichuan and other places have diagnosed fever, and more than death cases have occurred together.

Why is it so hot this year?

Behind extreme high temperature involves complex weather and climate system changes, and meteorologists have not fully reached consensus. But a consensus has formed: Under the trend of overall warming global, the frequency of extreme high temperature events in summer increases, and the intensity will continue to strengthen.

Wen | Zhu Qiuyu Huang Zemin

This article is reproduced from the WeChat public account "South Wind Window" (ID: SouthrViews). The original first was released on July 27, 2022. The original title was "Hot to explosion, the earth crazy", does not mean the view of the view of the think tank.

High temperature "tsunami"

To what extent can it be hot this summer? Netizens from Nanjing found that there were fewer mosquitoes at home.

Chu Hongliang, the director of the Disingement and Medical Bio -Prevention Center of the Jiangsu Provincial Disease Prevention and Control Center, responded to the media. According to monitoring, the mosquito density of mosquitoes from March to June 2022 was lower than the year -on -year density. "This is mainly because mosquitoes cannot be separated from the water body, but the rain and water recently have fewer rainwater than in previous years, and the temperature is relatively high. These are the adverse factors of mosquito raw reproduction."

The high temperature and water environment that mosquitoes cannot survive also make plants feel tormented. On July 11, a sycamore tree in Hangzhou smokes, and the scene even exudes a scorching smell. It wasn't until the firefighters dragged the water gun to the top of the tree, irrigated from the top of the smoke, and fed the water to "turn off" the tree.

The China Meteorological Administration uses 35 ° C as a high -temperature "hurdle". The maximum temperature of the day exceeds 35 ° C, which is high temperature weather. If high temperature weather lasts more than 3 days, it is set as "high temperature heat wave".

Putting such standards in 2022, the heat wave can be called "tsunami". The National Climate Center announced on July 15 that since June 13, the first regional high -temperature weather process in my country has appeared in China in 2022, with a wide range, long duration, strong extremes, and great influence. As of July 12, high temperature weather has lasted 30 days.

Ren Guoyu told Nanfeng Window that my country's extreme high temperature this year mainly appeared in the Yangtze River Basin and south of its regions. From the perspective of the northern hemisphere, it appears in the central and western Europe, the Midwest of the United States and the subtropical regions of East Asia, and the latter also includes South Korea and southern Japan.

"The direct reason is that the atmosphere is abnormal." Ren Guoyu said. The subtropical high -air pressure zone is extremely strong, which is one of the "culprits" that cause many places in East Asia.

Auxiliary tropical tape (hereinafter referred to as: sub-height) is located in a subtropical area near 20-30 degrees north-south latitude. The atmosphere under its control is prevailing, bringing the hot weather with small clouds, dryness, and strong solar radiation.

"In Europe, the low -voltage and high -pressure abnormal combination of the west and high -pressure east in the middle and lower levels of the atmosphere. The dry heat and air from the North African desert invaded the central and western Europe, causing a rare high -temperature heat wave in western Europe." Ren Guoyu analyzed.

In the normal years, due to the "blocking" of the three regions of the Mediterranean, the Qinghai -Tibet Plateau, and the Luoji Mountains, the northern hemisphere was divided into three sub -high bands: North Atlantic high -pressure bands, Iran's high pressure and North Pacific sub -high -pressure band. Under normal circumstances, the East Asian subtropical region is controlled by the North Pacific sub -high -pressure band, while the southwestern Europe is controlled by the North Atlantic high -pressure band. It is unusually that in the summer of 2022, Iran's high pressure overcomes the blocking of the Qinghai -Tibet Plateau and connects with the North Pacific Deputy Gao Gao. At the same time, the North Pacific Deputy Gao and the Atlantic High Views are connected to the Kaiji Mountains. The three major subtropical high -pressure surround the northern hemisphere, causing a large area of high temperature heat waves.

Accompanied by high -temperature heat waves, the rainy season near 30 degrees north latitude was shortened. In southern Japan, the rainy season usually lasts from June to mid -July. However, the average number of days in the rainy season in 2022 lasted only 21 days, which was three weeks short. In China, the "rainstorm period" of the Yangtze River Basin was shortened, and the rainfall was significantly less.

Wang Chun, director of the National Key Laboratory of the Tropical Marine Environment of the South China Sea Institute of Chinese Academy of Sciences, said that the short rainy season caused a large part of the reason from the seasonal climate "La Nina phenomenon".

"During the rainy period in June, the Western Pacific subtly high -pressure was south. The main rainfall belt was located in the South China. The precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin was less. In July, with the north of the Pacific Deputy High, High control, precipitation also shows a small state. "Wang Chun was telling the South Wind window.

This seasonal climate is due to the significant decrease in the temperature of the central and eastern oceans in the central and eastern ocean, which leads to great changes in temperature and precipitation, which exacerbates drought and floods in different regions. On June 10, the World Meteorological Organization reported that La Na phenomenon was likely to last until August, and the northern hemisphere may last until autumn and early winter.

Ren Guoyu told reporters that, affected by La Nina, "this year's Western Pacific subtropical high pressure is significantly strong and west. It continues to control the East Asian subtropical regions, resulting in less precipitation in the main rainy season in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, South Korea, and southern Japan."

Rain also has a cooling effect. According to Ren Guoyu, because surface water and soil water have higher heat capacity, which can absorb a lot of heat, and at the same time, it consumes a part of the heat through evaporation. Therefore, the area where the precipitation decreases in the summer this summer is further heated, and the temperature will be abnormal. High.

Fragile humans

Temperature is a major standard for measuring heat, but not all. Meteorological experts pointed out that the feeling of heat in different regions and different people has different feelings of heat, which directly affects methods and angles to prevent extreme high temperatures.

Wang Chun is telling reporters that in addition to high temperatures, he must also be alert to the harm of composite heat waves.

Studies have shown that in recent years, the number of composite heat waves with high temperature and high humidity has increased significantly. In the same temperature, increased humidity increases the evaporation of the human body, the heat is not easy to distribute, and the body regulation function is more likely to be unbalanced.

The National Health and Health Commission has stated that the classic thermal radiation disease will still occur when there is no severe physical activity, mainly due to high temperature and (or) factors of high humidity.

In the folk, people use "steamed sauna" to describe such damp and humid weather. Southern regions with higher humidity are victims of such weather. China Weather Network recently invested the average sauna from 1991 to 2020 and found that all the ten cities of "steamed" are located in the south. Among them, the number of sauna days of Shanghai (Xujiahui Station) reached 8.8 days. Nanchang and Guangzhou are ranked two or three with 8.6 days and 7.9 days.

Different regions have different feelings of heat, and the ability to deal with risks is not consistent. From the perspective of global perspective, there are obvious insufficient experience in responding to heat waves in western Europe and other countries that are accustomed to hot midsummer.

According to data from the International Energy Agency, the penetration rate of home air conditioners in Europe is less than 5%, which is far lower than nearly 90%of the United States and Japan, and China ’s 60%air conditioning penetration rate. At present, the economic and developed German, France, and Britain's family air -conditioning configuration rates are 3%, 5%, and 5%, respectively, and even the hotter Italian equipment rate is only 7%.

The World Health Organization said on July 23 that more than 1,000 people in Spain and Portugal died due to high temperature. On July 24, local time, Portugal reached a record of 47 ° C, and most areas were listed as "high -fire dangerous areas" by the country's meteorological bureau.

In the UK, many railway lines are damaged due to high temperature. Around July 19, the central and West Coast Railway was suspended in the central British and West Coast.

"Britain is a typical temperate maritime climate. It is cold in winter and cool in winter. Normally, the average temperature in July is less than 20 ° C. This year, the highest temperature of individual locations is 40 ° C, which should be very abnormal." Ren Guoyu told Nanfeng Window.

"The temperature is extremely high, and there is no cooling equipment in the building. People lack experience in responding to extreme high temperatures, and indirectly cause the elderly who have a basic disease in (Western Europe)." He said. In addition to the vulnerability of the region, the risks when exposed to high temperatures between different people are also different.

Existing research has found that there are two main ways to respond to high temperatures: expanding skin blood vessels and sweating. Therefore, during the high temperature heat wave, the mortality rate of people with cardiovascular disease is higher.

In July, Tallas, Secretary -General of the World Meteorological Organization, warned that the new crown virus was also the most likely to be hit by heat waves. Once the heat waves continue, more elderly people and basic diseases will die at high temperature.

Meteorological experts also emphasize the role of urbanization. The development of urbanization has exacerbated the "hot island effect". Ren Guoyu said, "The city itself will cause additional temperature increase, and the wind speed of the urban area will be weaker." In the same regional high -temperature heat waves, urban populations will feel a stronger negative impact than rural population.

Artificially?

From a scientific perspective, it does not seem to be so appalling and uncontrollable. Science helps people understand the status quo, while reminding people to respond to risks. However, an irreplaceable question in front of it is, who has led to the disorder of natural climate? Is it human yourself?

A number of studies have shown that human activities, which are based on emission greenhouse gases (such as carbon dioxide, ozone, methane, nitrogen oxide, etc.), have played an important role in the increase and enhancement of extreme high temperature events in summer. The Sixth Evaluation Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Climate Change Special Committee (IPCC) shows that human activities have led to a significant increase in the average temperature in summer in most areas of the world.

Wang Chun is telling reporters that according to the data of IPCC, the extreme high-temperature incidents that encountered in the fifty years in 1850-1900 now occur 4.8 times every fifty years. If the global average temperature increases by 4 ° C in the future, this event will occur 39.2 times every fifty years.

He had led the team to study the super heat waves that occurred from the end of June 2021 to the beginning of July. At that time, Canada and northwestern United States recorded the highest temperature of historical records. The highest temperature in Canada was 49.6 ° C, which was 4.6 ° C higher than the country's last maximum temperature record.

Wang Chun's research results in the team show that the "hot dome" caused by abnormal atmospheric circulation has played an extremely important role in North America's super heat wave in 2021. The abnormal atmospheric circulation signal mainly comes from the North Pacific and Arctic, which is related to the abnormal activity of the Arctic Vortex.

However, in addition to natural changes, it is also found that human factors have also had an important impact on this North American heat wave event, "Wang Chun and the member of the research team Zheng Jiayu told the South Window.

Wang Chun is introduced that climate change can be caused by three parts: natural internal changes, natural external forced (such as solar radiation, volcano) and human exterior forced. "In the long run, human activity, mainly greenhouse gas emissions, is not only the main reason for the increase in temperature day by day, but also a significant increase in the probability of the super heat wave incident."

Ren Guoyu said that extreme high temperatures reflect a significant impact on the climate on the climate. Due to human activities, including greenhouse gas emissions and urbanization, various space -scale changes will occur, and extreme temperatures and precipitation events will change in different directions.

However, he said that natural climate change is also an important reason for the temperature and precipitation fluctuations of the ages to many years. A major change is that the atmospheric circulation in the northern hemisphere in the past 20 years has shown a different feature that is different from the last 20 years of the 20th century.

This high fluctuation means that the north -south exchange of water and calories in the atmosphere is stronger and frequent. Therefore, "winter is more likely to produce low temperature and cold waves, high temperature heat waves are more likely to occur in summer, and extreme weather is more likely to occur."

It is foreseeable that the extreme and uncertainty of the climate will be accompanied by the fate of human beings for a long time.

Coexistence and coexistence with the "unbelievable wind and clouds" will become a major problem that lingers in each individual.

Wang Chun said that the team's research and analysis found that "if appropriate emission reduction measures are not taken, the super heat wave incident of a century will become normal in the future, and eventually threatens human health and ecological balance."

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