"Finance and Economics" Lin Yifu: The advantage of the latecomers is still the most important engine of the Chinese economy

Lin Yifu: The advantage of the latecomer is still the most important engine of China's economy

Finance

★★★★★

Focusing on the future development of China's economy in the future of the global industrial chain supply chain, China's application to join the "Comprehensive and Progressive Cross -Pacific Partnership Agreement Agreement" (CPTPP), state -owned enterprise reform, and Chinese enterprises need to make up for the shortcomings from world -class enterprises. Board and other issues, Lin Yifu has the following views:

From the perspective of the proportion of my country's economy, the current proportion of catch -up industries still accounts for more than 80%. Therefore, at this stage, the magic weapon that cannot be abandoned by the advantages of the latecomers should be used to make independent inventions while using the advantages of the latecomers.

Acknowledging the gap and making a good gap is an important foundation for Chinese companies from large to strong and moving towards world -class enterprises.

Economic theories of developed countries are difficult to truly help developing countries. Economic theories that summarize experience in Chinese experience can not only guide China's development, but also contribute "Chinese wisdom" to more developing countries.

We can't give up the magic weapon of the latecomer advantage yet

Reporter: Under the influence of multiple factors such as epidemic and Sino -US trade frictions, the global economy has experienced a hundred years of changes, and the industrial chain supply chain has accelerated the reconstruction. Will these factors affect the speed and rhythm of China's economic development?

Lin Yifu: China is now the world's second largest economy and the largest trading country. Of course, China's development must pay attention to the trend of the world, but China's development itself has also contributed to the development of the world. Although there have been some noise in these years, such as the impact of globalization and supply chain, globalization is still the best option for each country, because globalization allows each country to develop according to its comparative advantages, and it can make full use of domestic domestic advantages. The two international markets and two resources are the best way for each country to create employment, increase growth rate, promote development, and increase people's happiness.

In recent years, there have been many sounds that have moved away from China and decoupled from China, but China's trade growth and export growth rates are still fast. It can be seen that as long as we maintain a fixed force and develop in accordance with the basic laws of the economy, we can give all the whole. The world provides a larger and larger market. At the same time, we have developed, and we can also provide more and more high -quality, high -priced products and services. To develop well in other countries, we must follow this principle, so the trend of globalization will not be reversed.

Reporter: New structural economics believes that the advantage of the latecomers is an important driving force for China's economic development. Today, China has achieved from follow -up and running, or even leading. In this case, do you think the advantage of the latecomers is still an important engine to drive China's economic development?

Lin Yifu: According to the new structural economics, we divide China's industries into five types. The largest type is the chase type with a gap with developed countries. Of course, we also have the advantages of the latecomers; the second largest category is the leading type, and it has run from the past to the world. Comparing advantages, now gradually losing the comparative advantage into the transition industry, such as labor -intensive processing industry. Turn into a part of the model to the brand, quality management, marketing and other links. This type of industry has a short R & D cycle and is mainly based on human capital investment. Because of its human capital advantages and complete industrial facilities, China can go together with developed countries. If the R & D cycle is long, we need a lot of capital investment. Although we do not have comparative advantages, we must also engage in research and development for the country and economic security. At present, from the perspective of the proportion of my country's economy, the proportion of catch -up industries is the highest, and 85%of industries are relatively traditional industries. If you look at the Frankfurt Industry Exhibition, compared with advanced industrialized countries, most of our products still have gaps in price, quality, and technology, and still have the advantages of latecomers. Therefore, we cannot give up the magic weapon of the latecomer's advantage, and we should walk with two legs. If the advantages of the later parties use all the light, it means that our average labor productivity level is as high as developed countries. At that time, we must rely on our own invention of new technologies and new products.

Only by using the gap can the enterprise can achieve the lead

Reporter: Application for joining the "Comprehensive and Progressive Cross -Pacific Partnership Agreement" (CPTPP) has been regarded as a new opportunity to promote higher levels of opening up and promoting domestic deep -level reforms since joining the WTO. The new international business rules emphasize openness and fair competition, and does it mean new challenges for Chinese companies, especially state -owned enterprises? Does this also propose a new topic for how we play the role of the "government"?

Lin Yifu: State -owned enterprises are often said to have unfair competition, but they actually need to be discussed. According to the new structural economics, state -owned enterprises are divided into three categories. The first category is that its industry is in line with our comparative advantages and is in a competitive industry, such as steel. We have a comparative advantage so we do n’t need to subsidize. A considerable part of our state -owned enterprises is in a competitive industry that meets comparative advantages. The second category is that capital is very dense and large. It has natural monopoly attributes, such as electricity and telecommunications. In our country, these companies are state -owned, and other countries have state -owned and private. Such industries are dominated by domestic service and do not participate in international competition. The third category is a strategic type, the capital is dense, the R & D cycle is particularly long, does not conform to China's comparative advantage, and actually does not conform to the comparative advantages of the United States and European countries. Such industries need to protect subsidies. For example, the defense industry in the United States and Europe requires a large number of government protection subsidies.

Many people now say that Chinese state -owned enterprises have been protected to subsidies, which is an unfair competition. This is not to analyze the situation of our state -owned enterprises and its attributes in detail. This is why new structural economics should be proposed to analyze the characteristics of the industry, and then it is reasonable to make appropriate management and planning to various industries.

We welcome openness and fair competition. Because in the competitive industry, we can compete with others; if we can't compete, it means that we have the advantages of latecomers, and we can continue to use their products and technology to promote my country's development. In the natural monopoly industry, both state -owned or private are supervised, and it is the same in developed countries. Of course, we should also allow us to supervise it. For the defense security industry, any country adopts a method of protecting subsidies, and of course we must also allow us to have protection subsidies.

Reporter: Big but not strong are still the status quo of many Chinese companies. What do you think of Chinese companies still need to become a world -class enterprise?

Lin Yifu: Big but not strong is also staged. In the early days, the labor -intensive processing industry was in line with our comparative advantages, can develop very fast, and can also have considerable market share in the country, but its technology belongs to the chase and is in the introduction stage, so it does not look strong. But when we reach the forefront of the world, we will lead the new direction of technological innovation and lead the development of product development, which will be strong.

When it is still in the catch -up stage, taking Huawei led by Ren Zhengfei as an example, the cutting -edge technology of the world will track it to improve its "spare tire" ability. However, if you buy it cheaper than your own, the lower the cost, the more competitive the company can accumulate capital and catch up with developed countries faster. When we still have a gap, using the gap will give us the foundation of the world's leading lead. When there is no gap, it will be invented by itself. At that time, there was enough capital accumulation and strength to carry out independent research and development. Therefore, the most important thing is emancipating the mind, seeking truth from facts, knowing what our goals are, and then objectively analyzing what the advantages we can use now are, use the advantages we can use now, and lay the foundation for future advantages.

If you want to successfully catch up with developed countries, developing countries must have their own theory

Reporter: With the fierce changes in the global economic pattern, will the continuous improvement of China's emerging economies such as global speaking worldwide will bring new changes in economic theory?

Lin Yifu: The development of economics will definitely have a revolution. Since Adam Smith's "National Fortune Theory" has made economics independent from philosophy, it has become a well -known economist in the world since it has become a social science. The reason why this time and space is relatively concentrated, because any theory uses a very simple causal logic to explain the observed phenomenon, and the simpler the cause and effect logic generally, the better. Therefore, the importance of theory is not the logic of theory, but the importance of the phenomenon of explanation. The more important the phenomenon of the explanation, the more important the theory is, and the more important the economists who put forward this theory. Adam Smith published "National Wealth Theory" in 1776. At that time, the industrial revolution had occurred. The British leading the industrial revolution was the world economic center at that time. The economic phenomenon of Britain was the most important economic phenomenon. Economists are either British or foreigners working in the UK. After the First World War, the World Economic Center gradually shifted to the United States. The economic phenomenon of the United States became more and more important, and economists who explained the phenomenon of American economic phenomena became more and more important. Today, the World Economic Center has gradually shifted to China, and China's economic phenomenon has become increasingly important. When explaining China's economic phenomenon, it is also "near the water tower first", and more and more Chinese economists have proposed new theories and new trends.

Reporter: Theory is the derivation of the cause and effect of the phenomenon. Different phenomena may draw different causal logic. Is economics falling into "relativism"?

Lin Yifu: Any theory is a simple causal logic. The theories of developed countries we are learning are summarized in developed countries. Because it is a simple causal logic, the socio -economic conditions when the theory of developed countries have become a prerequisite for implication. It is not in the theoretical model, but it actually exists. Whether the theory has explanation, decides whether it is appropriate or existing in its premise. If the premise changes, the theory will change, which is why the theory of developed countries is actually changing. With the change of socio Essence Therefore, the theory of prevalent developed countries is not an eternal truth.

With the theory of developed countries to developing countries, due to the different socio -economic conditions, the prerequisite for the theory may not exist, and it is likely that the phenomenon of "being orange in Huainan and Hubei". In the journey of the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, there will be many challenges in economic and social development. To solve this challenge, we must summarize the success and failure experience of our own country and the characteristics of the current phenomenon. Essence

Summarizing the theory of our country is also very important to other developing countries. Other developing countries now basically use the theory of developed countries, but the prerequisites are different, so it is difficult to help developing countries, so that they can realize industrialization and modernization, and catch up with the desire of developed countries. This is why developing countries that can really catch up with developed countries are rare. Because our conditions along the way are closer to other developing countries, the economics theory summarized in Chinese experience can not only guide China's development, but also help other developing countries.

Lin Yifu: Member of Chang'an Street Reading Club, Dean of the New Structural Economics Research Institute of Peking University

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