The Federal Reserve raises interest rates!Expert worry ...

The Federal Reserve announced on the 27th that it announced 75 basis points in interest rate hikes. This is the fourth interest rate hike this year, and it is also the second consecutive interest rate hikes 75 basis points. Such a rare interest rate hike pace has further caused the outside world to worry about the increase in the risk of US economic recession and the crisis transfer to drag the global economy.

——Can the Federal Reserve still raise interest rates in the near future?

The Federal Reserve's Federal Public Marketing Committee issued a statement on the 27th that the committee "pays high attention to inflation risks"; the US inflation rate is still high, reflecting the imbalances of supply and demand, rising energy prices and wider price pressures related to the new crown epidemic; The situation and its related events cause additional upward pressure on inflation.

The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said at the press conference that day that the Fed may once again "exceed the extraordinary interest rate hike" at the September meeting. However, Powell said in June for the first time in the 28th year of the Federal Reserve that 75 basis points had raised interest rates that 75 basis points raised 75 basis points were unusual, and it was expected that this amplitude interest rate hike would not often occur.

On July 27, Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve Committee, attended a press conference in Washington. Xinhua News Agency reporter Liu Jie

——In the US economy falls into decline?

At the press conference, when the media asked whether the US economy was in a decline, Powell replied that although the US economy slowed down, the employment market was still strong, and he did not think that the United States had entered the economic recession. However, he also acknowledged that the path of the Federal Reserve avoids recession and the "soft landing" path has narrowed, and it may become narrower.

Data from the US Department of Labor show that from March to May, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by more than 8%year -on -year, and the increase in June was as high as 9.1%, a new high in the past 41 years. More and more economists believe that U.S. inflation is still high, the Fed will continue to raise interest rates, and the possibility of the US economy falling into decline is rising.

The latest forecast announced by the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank on the 27th shows that the actual GDP of the United States in the second quarter of this year will shrink by 1.2%by the year -on -year calculation. In addition, a survey of US Consumer News and Business Channels on fund managers, analysts, and economists show that 63%of respondents believe that the Fed's current measures will lead to economic recession.

This is a photo photo of the New York Stock Exchange Building on June 13, 2022. Xinhua News Agency (Photo by Guo Ke)

——The impact on the global economy?

Analysts pointed out that the Federal Reserve has continued the excessive loose monetary policy before, misjudging the situation of the US inflation, failed to adjust the policy in time, and blame the current situation of the US economy. It is tantamount to passing the cost of crisis, and the negative spilling effect on the global economy is becoming increasingly prominent, and it may affect emerging economies.

The International Monetary Fund said recently that as central banks such as the United States and other developed economies have raised interest rates to respond to inflation, and the global financing environment has continued to tighten, which may trigger the debt crisis of emerging markets and developing economies. On the 26th, the agency has reduced the expectations of world economic growth in 2022 and 2023 to 3.2%and 2.9%, respectively.

Economist Destmond Rachman, an economist at the American Institute of Enterprise Research, told Xinhua News Agency that the US interest rate hike has led to a large amount of capital outflows in emerging markets, causing some currencies of emerging economies to depreciate sharply, pushing some high -debt emerging market economies The risk of default of the body.

This is the Federal Reserve building taken in Washington, USA on June 22. Xinhua News Agency reporter Liu Jie

James Morrison, a scholar of the London School of Political Economics, told reporters that the Fed's interest rate hike will inevitably have a negative impact on the global economy, and the Federal Reserve must also know the impact of its policy on the world economy. As the United States had previously implemented fiscal stimuli and loose monetary policy, the global market had to face the current dilemma. The United States responds to inflation to bring risk of recession to the global economy. The more aggressive measures, the greater the risks brought about.

Reporter: Xiong Maoling

Participate reporters: Liu Jie, Hu Yousong, Huang Zemin

Reporter: Larry Nild

Produced by Xinhua News Agency International Department

Produced by Xinhua News Agency International Communication integration platform

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