Gao Mengtan: Pay close attention to the threat of the western earthquake to the east urban agglomeration and the big cities

July 28 this year is the 46th anniversary of the 7.8 earthquake in Tangshan. In less than a minute, the earthquake razed a century -old industrial city, causing more than 242,000 people to die and over 164,000 seriously injured. The earthquake affects large and medium cities such as Beijing and Tianjin, causing the destruction of infrastructure such as railway, highways, and water transportation such as railway, highways, and water transportation in Tangshan and its nearby regions, which seriously affects the post -earthquake -resistant and disaster relief work and the lives of the victims.

唐山大地震后的46年内，国家社会经济发展驶入了快车道，建成了一系列国家战略基础设施，如西气东输、西电东送、南水北调、北煤南运、高速公路网、高速Railway networks and Central Europe trains and so on. These strategic infrastructures closely connect the western resources, energy, transportation and the eastern urban agglomeration and large cities, which is essential for national social stability and economic development. According to comprehensive media reports, in 2021, the natural gas transported by the Xiqi East Underworld system to the East economy was 10 billion cubic meters; Electric energy exceeds 200 billion kilowatts. In 2021, the national railway coal delivery volume reached 2.58 billion tons. It was mainly sent to economic developed areas such as Beijing -Tianjin -Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta, and Guangdong -Hong Kong -Macao through the North Coal South Transport System. The South-to-North Water Diversion Project has been realized in 2020-2021.9 billion cubic meters of water adjustment from 2020-2021. In 2021, the China -EU trains opened 15,000 columns and sent 1.46 million standard boxes. Once these national strategic infrastructure is damaged, the function is invalid and cannot be recovered for a long time, which will have a huge impact and impact on politics, economy, and society in the eastern urban agglomerations and large cities and even the entire country. Just as the Japan's March 11 earthquake caused insufficient fuel and electricity, many large enterprises were forced to pull the gate to limit electricity, and the industrial chain was seriously affected, and normal production activities could not be carried out, causing major economic losses.

Considering the spatial distribution of China's large earthquake activities and the geographical distribution of national strategic infrastructure (including production bases and long -transmission systems), the large earthquakes in the western region in the western region are likely to have a serious impact and impact on the developed areas of the eastern economy. The three major systems of west gas and east include natural gas transportation systems connecting Central Asia, Xinjiang and East my country, and long oil and gas transmission systems connecting Myanmar, Yunnan and South China in my country, which can be connected to the Far East of Russia, Mongolia, Northeast my country, northeast China, North China. Oil and gas long -lost system. Most of these long -lost pipelines crossed the large earthquake -easy area and large -scale activity. In the area where it passed, there were many large earthquakes in the history of about 8 times in history, such as the 1920 Haiyuan 8.5 earthquake, and 1927 Ancient Lang 8 magnitude 8 large large earthquakes in 1927 Earthquake and so on. The power production base of the West East Transmission System includes the hydropower production bases in the western region and the thermal power production bases of Jin, Shaanxi, and Mongolia, accounting for about 90%of the conveying power. The western hydropower production base is located near the deep fracture belt of the border between the Sichuan -Dianling blocks that is very active in the Great Earthquake and the northeast edge of the Qinghai -Tibet Plateau and the large -scale activity fracture zone in the northeast. The Northwest thermal power base is located near the large -scale break zone with frequent earthquakes, such as the fracture belt northern part of Ordos and the Fen Weidi Fracture Belt. The ultra -high -voltage transmission system that connects the power production base and the east -developed urban agglomeration and the big cities must cross the large earthquake breakdown zone. The core components of Bei Coal South Transport include coal mines, railways and ports. Most of them are concentrated in the areas of large earthquake zones. , Shenhuang Railway, the core ports include Qinhuangdao Port, Huanghua Port, and Rizhao Port, all facing the threat of possible earthquakes such as Earthcurry belts such as Ordos. There were more than 10 major earthquakes above 7.5 or more in this area.

Eastern urban agglomerations and large cities as national economic development have been closely related to the national strategic infrastructure. The eastern urban agglomerations and large cities are not only threatened by local earthquake disasters, but the risks caused by the western earthquake are also increasing. It should be thoroughly studied for the overall national security concept, implementing the newly deployed eleventh meeting of the Central Finance and Economics Committee, and from the perspective of the bottom line of the major risk of preventing and control, considering the construction and earthquake safety of national strategic infrastructure. It is recommended to do the following aspects:

1. Consider the safety of the national strategic infrastructure from a high degree of overall strategy. The national strategic infrastructure will be destroyed by a large earthquake. It will endanger the safety and public life of urban agglomerations and large cities, industrial bases and industrial chains, and supply chains. It should seriously impact and affect the national and economic development of the country. According to its functional interruption of the scope and degree of impact on the social and economic of the country, the national strategic infrastructure list should be determined and included in the scope of strict seismic safety management.

2. By planning and layout to reduce the risk of great earthquake disasters, the minimum guarantee of the post -earthquake function and the rapid restoration of further optimization of seismic anti -prevention standards. Focusing on the construction and operation and maintenance of national strategic infrastructure, regularly update the dedicated earthquake risk map (including breakdown, strong earthquake, earthquake slurry, earthquake liquefaction, soft soil, etc.) Layout or enhance network connectivity to effectively reduce the risk of great earthquakes. Focusing on the minimum functional guarantee and damaged functional recovery time and influence that must be provided after the earthquake in the national strategic infrastructure, it has gradually improved the anti -seismic anti -standard system based on national strategic infrastructure. 3. Regularly evaluate and real -time monitoring of the risk of earthquakes in national strategic infrastructure. Establish a special earthquake risk dynamic perception system, regularly evaluate the risks of the great earthquake disaster of existing national strategic infrastructure, and find out and eliminate hidden dangers of major risks. After the large earthquake, real -time dynamic assessment operation risks, providing a scientific basis for post -earthquake repair, recovery and reconstruction. Focusing on national strategic facilities, through unified technical standards, a special earthquake disaster monitoring and early warning and automatic disposal system should be established to reduce the risk of major accidents caused by earthquakes and reduce difficulty in restoring operation.

4. In response to the risks of the great earthquake disaster, under the premise of clarifying the division of responsibilities, formulate targeted plans, improve emergency response and recovery capabilities, do a good job of material reserves, conduct regular exercises, combine flat warfare, and keep unremitting. Once a large earthquake occurs, recovery, grabbing and reconstruction can be developed quickly, reducing the impact and impact of earthquake disasters on social economy.

5. Strengthen the basic research and key technology research and development around national strategic infrastructure. Make full use of the opportunities of the construction of the China Earthquake Science Experimental Square, the major national scientific and technological infrastructure, and promote relevant basic research and key technology research and development around the earthquake safety of the western earthquake and national strategic infrastructure.

About the Author

Gao Mengtan, a researcher and special expert of the Institute of Earth Physics of the China Earthquake Administration; the chairman of the Scientific Popularization Committee of the Chinese Earthquake Society.

Source: China Earthquake Administration

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