Liu Yu: I am still cautious about this world

Picture | Southern Character Weekly reporter Jiang Xiaoming

01

If we acknowledge the huge progress of the times, we will discuss war, poverty, hunger, and even institutional construction under this premise. Maybe what we need is not revolution, but improvement, patience, and in the existing international system, existing existing ones, existing ones Globalization to repair.

02

"Equality" is slow and needs patience, because it is not to pull the people above, but to pull the people below, expand the social resources, and make the cake bigger. However, to make the cake bigger, "equality" must be coexisting with other values, such as order, incentives for investment, protection of property rights, and so on. The predicament of modern society is often the dispute between good good.

03

The vitality and value judgment of a system may not even be enough for one or two hundred years. If you build a longer -term historical outlook, it may be more optimistic.

Liu Yu: I am still cautious about this world

Text | Southern Character Weekly Reporter 蒯 Le Hao

Before "Possibly Arts -Comparison of Political Science 30 Lectures", Liu Yu had not published a new book for nearly ten years. "Art of Possibility" was a lecture on the audio course made by her "watching ideal" platform. I wrote it for more than half a year. Prior to this, the popular comparison of political scholars spent five years and devoted themselves to another academic manuscript. It is still in the publishing process.

People can not care about politics, but it is difficult to exist from politics. "We have to try to understand politics, this is not just because -as Aristotle said, 'people are natural city -states', and because of the source of our destiny in politics. Sailors sail on the sea, work hard to work hard Practicing navigation technology, mastering meteorological and geographical knowledge, and reserving grain capital. It is unknown that what can best affect the success of this navigation and failure is not the wisdom of the sailor, but the "temper" of the sea itself. The sturdy waves are quiet, so that the sailor can be quiet. From the moment that humans fall to the ground, they have been abducted by politics. It is the sea that we cannot see at the foot of all of us.

"Possible Art: Comparison of Political Science 30 Lectures" | Liu Yu

Before the new book was listed, Liu Yu told her editor that first do not do too much promotion, and second, do not India too much. Any attempt to become a explosion may be that she mobilizes stones to smash her feet. Compared to the best -selling, she would rather have a long -selling: Selling water for a long time, and it is read silently. Maybe ten years later, this book is still selling, those who are hidden in politics in politics The rationality and concepts did not fall behind because of the ease of the world. She imagined that the readers of this book are not just those "self -choice groups" -the people with a certain level of education and cognition, and public care, she expects a more similar shadow: "I write any face There will be some targetedness in the public's things. I hope that this book can not only read the college students, it is best to read the county party secretary, and the township chief can also read, including some business entrepreneurs who are willing to read. "

It is easy to write a poem that can be solved. It is obviously much more difficult to write a political article suitable for everyone. It is not possible to write the text easy and to discuss common sense. "As we all know, talking about politics is a difficult thing, especially in an era of political polarization. Few things can arouse fanatical love and hatred like politics, make strangers be the same way, and make friends become enemies ... … It seems that politics is a distortion of all relationships, all morality, and all concepts; it seems that politics always brings misplace, and understanding the efforts of politics will always cause misunderstandings. "

The journey of understanding of politics may first start with the understanding of misunderstanding.

Discussing world politics today, globalization is an unsopuous topic. The previous Trump was elected, Brexit, and Europe's extreme right forces looked up again ... behind it seemed to correspond to the ebb of globalization. Economic globalization has opened huge markets and huge profits to multinational companies, bringing development opportunities to third world countries. However, blue -collar workers in Western countries have deeply felt that they have become a victim of globalization.

In the eyes of Western blue -collar workers, after globalization, not only many job opportunities have flowed to other countries, but they also spent a hundred or two hundred years of struggle, such as minimum wages, maximum working hours, vacation subsidies, medical security, etc., in the past, in the past Globalization was almost smoothed. Studies have shown that after deducting inflation, the salary level of the American blue -collar class has not increased in the past 40 years. In an era of economic development, they became "people who did not catch up with the train." Since the 21st century, white blue -collar class has been the only group in the United States with a significant suicide rate. As a result, "these people who were abandoned by the economy mobilized in one anger and chose the right -wing politicians on the stage."

Liu Yu in the student days

Photo/Interviewee provided

Liu Yu also remembered that in the mid -1990s, she was an undergraduate student at the political department. The mainstream political view on textbooks was: how globalization has harmed developing countries. The popular theory of academic circles is the "World System Theory". In this theory, the world is divided into "central zone" and "edge zone". "Central zone" has continued to squeeze resources from the "edge zone" due to greed. Permanent poverty. The so -called international trade, international investment, and international finance are essentially the form of new colonialism, and it is almost impossible for developing countries to turn over through globalization. Initially, developing countries were considered to be a victim of globalization, and developed countries were beneficiaries. In the short generation of people, developed countries believed that they had become a victim of globalization. The 180 -degree turning of this concept will naturally attract Liu Yu's research interest.

In the water level of the "connector" of globalization, the end of the Cold War is a key node. The end of the Cold War means the opening of the two camps of the east and west. The two large pools have become a super large pool. Therefore The globalization of the later Cold War was called "super globalization". "Super globalization" has also exacerbated the "three dilemma" of Western countries.

01.

Is the globalization that is not a modern human beings that cannot be completed?

Southern Character Weekly: Economist's "three dilemma" proposed by Economist Dani Rodrik, that is, globalization, sovereign state, and democratic politics are difficult to both. Behind the economic level competition is the competition of the economic model. Behind the competition of the economic model, the system and even civilized competition. How do you feel about this?

Liu Yu: Globalization does make the cake bigger, but not all the people who grab the cake. Of course, the capitalist class has reasons to love globalization. Before, they earned money in a country, and now they earn money in more than 100 countries. Microsoft could have been sold to 300 million people, and now it can be sold to 7 billion people. Stores are open in more than one hundred countries, so capitalists must welcome globalization. However, the working class may be the opposite. They were originally competing with 1 million and 10 million people, but now they have become competitive work with 100 million people and 1 billion people.

The Davos Forum held every year in Switzerland is a well -known global economic forum, and it has also become a symbol of economic globalization. Many people call globalists "Davos", entrepreneurs from various countries and economic crocodiles. Seeing each other is very happy, talking and laughing. At the same time, the workers of the world's countries resent each other and feel that the other party grabbed its own rice bowl. Therefore, some people say: The main contradictions in the world are no longer the contradictions of developed countries and developing countries, but a contradiction between various globalists standing together and with ethnicists in all directions.

Southern Character Weekly: Is this understandable? Globalization may have a systematic bug itself. Globalization has developed to a certain degree, and it is impossible to go to the world. It is impossible for humans to really realize the earth village, and there will be a variety of reflux, and then everyone will build the fence again?

Liu Yu: I do n’t know if I am too optimistic. I tend to think that we may now be in the so -called “two steps, one step back”, but the trend of “two steps” has not been broken. Globalization is definitely not a linear process. It cannot be very stable in the process of expanding, and it will repeat it repeatedly. But in general, I think that from a long history, economic globalization will still expand, and you can even say that it is part of human nature. Because of its essence, the motivation of economic globalization comes from "the greed of capitalists" and "the laziness of consumers", and this "greed" and this "laziness" are humanity, and you cannot destroy it.

Simply put, Bill Gates or Starbucks, including our own brand Huawei, and so What about 300 million people? The same is true for consumers. If I can choose among 100 brands, why should I be satisfied with only 3 brands? As long as this greed and laziness in human nature, this fundamental motivation for globalization will not disappear. Of course, at some stages of history, it will be blocked and adjusted, but after people have fully enjoyed the various benefits brought by globalization, it is difficult to deprive them.

The situation is not optimistic in the short term, but the essence of globalization is still a win -win situation. It is not that you lose if you get it. If you lose it, I get it. It is still a process of continuously growing the cake.

Southern Character Weekly: But in the eyes of radical nationalists, they can't stand more you get, and I get less ...

Liu Yu: Sometimes this is a misunderstanding, but it is indeed a deep misunderstanding. We have all learned the "connector principle": the container connected to each other, if the level of the liquid flowing liquid flow is removed, the horizontal plane of different parts of the container will eventually become consistent. What is globalization? In a sense, globalization is to build a "connector". After the levels of the world from all over the world, the water in the high place rushes down, and the water in the low place rises up. As soon as this fall, political issues occurred. Even if all kinds of productivity increases, but due to the different positions of the "connector", that is, the initial position is different, the water level rises is very different. In the past two years, I have some thoughts. From the perspective of pure economy, globalization is definitely a good thing, but it may not be black or white, and natural politics is correct. It also pays more attention to thinking about globalization. From the perspective of social stability and cultural cohesion, the faster the globalization is not necessarily, the better the coverage, and the wider the coverage. At some historical stages, it may slow down a little bit, which may not be a bad thing.

Especially in an era when the population structure has changed very fast and cultural diversity increases very quickly, sometimes we may sacrifice certain economic efficiency to achieve social cohesion enhancement, and it may also have its reason at a historical stage.

"Water Level of Concepts" | Liu Yu

02.

This era that makes you dissatisfied,

But it may be the best era in the history of human beings

Southern Character Weekly: In your book, there is a huge comfort, that is, you use a lot of chapters and a lot of data in the book to discuss it. We must first realize that the peace we have now is very very very very very good. A precious historical stage, that is, when we are worried about the tearing of the world, we should realize that we are still in a period of unprecedented peace in human history.

Liu Yu: Most of the periods in history, war is normal, peace is the exception, but after the end of the Cold War, peace is the norm, and war is the exception. This is what the Cold War scholar John Lewis Gaddis refers to "Long Peace", long peace. Scholars Steven Pinker wrote a "Good Angel in Humanity" to tell us that "the world is becoming better". This book is also considered one of the most important books in the 21st century. Treatment of "political depression". Because in a worldless world, radicals are virtues, the more radicals, the more promoting social progress.但是，如果我们承认时代的巨大进步，在这个前提下再来讨论战争、贫穷、饥饿，乃至制度建设，可能我们需要的就不是革命，而是改良，是耐心，是在现有的国际体系、现Some globalization goes on the basis of repair.

Southern Character Weekly: Do you still judge the current foundation of globalization, is it still valid? Do you think the evolution of the international situation in the future is likely to shake this foundation?

Liu Yu: I said that this global international system with free trade is definitely a foundation for the development of today's world since World War II, especially since the end of the Cold War. Do you say it is shaken now? Everyone will think that there is a lot of shake, but the core part, I think it depends to a large extent on Sino -US relations -can Sino -US relations be repaired? Can the two sides complete the balance of this relationship with the greatest wisdom?

Of course, this global order contains a lot of shocks. For example, right -wing populism within the Western world, such as nationalism of many developing countries, including religious extremism, but what really affects world order is the trend of Sino -US relations. I think this is the most fundamental factor for whether the world order can continue to maintain.

Southern Character Weekly: You do not mention Russia at all, and everyone thinks that the Russian and Ukraine War that will profoundly affect the future world pattern, what role will Russia play in the future world order?

Liu Yu: Hit a less appropriate analogy. Have you ever seen a photo, a cat, looking in the mirror, seeing yourself a lion, I think Russia at this moment is a bit like this cat. Its self -awareness exceeds its true strength. In fact, no matter from the economic volume and the cultural influence, even after this Russian and Ukraine war, its military influence may be difficult to be called the most heavy country in the world. The Russian and Ukraine War may be a Wake up call for many Russians and even Putin himself, and it is a wake -up alarm. He believes that Russia has sufficient appeal and military mobilization capabilities, and has a confidence to quickly win the war and get the surrounding countries. However, in terms of the current war process, things are obviously not so simple.

Russia does not play the most decisive role in globalization. Some time ago, US Secretary of State Brillin had a speech, the core topic is about Sino -US relations, but before he talked about Sino -US relations, he talked about a short period of Russia. He criticized the Russian and Ukraine War, but then he said: China It is the only country that has both willing and capable of subverting existing international order. For Russia, this sentence is called not harmful and strong insult. Although Russia is willing, there is no enough strength.

Southern Character Weekly: Without Russia, how should we deal with the "Chinese threat theory" in the United States in recent years?

Liu Yu: It is not the "China threat theory" throughout the United States, but it has to be said that there are quite a few people who regard China as a threat whether they are the Republican and Democratic Party. In a very polarized political atmosphere in the United States, China The topic is a issue that they attach importance to and can bring consensus. Southern Character Weekly: What are the best possibilities you can think of in the future of Sino -US relations?

Liu Yu: The best possibility is that both sides can make concessions. To be honest, from the perspective of international ambitions, I think the United States exaggerates the theory of Chinese threat because they do not know enough about Chinese culture. Chinese culture is more introverted, not extroverted, because the genes of Chinese civilization are agricultural civilization, not commercial civilization, and the pursuit of profit for commercial civilization, so it is naturally expanding, and agricultural civilization pursues stability and stability and pursuit Determination and tendency to defense, so we have built the Great Wall in history, engaged in sea ban, and surrounded ourselves. Don't come in.

And Western Christianity, it has the tradition of missionary and evangelism, is that the old and old running to other countries to transform you and let you accept its so -called "truth". There are also idealistic components here, but for the "transformed country", it may become cultural aggression. There is no tradition in Chinese history. The ancient Chinese emperors also hoped that Wanbang would come to the DPRK, but most of the time, they hoped that you would admit that the emperor's face, the face of the emperor, not accepting the Chinese civilized model, nor the actual rule. Especially in modern times, in the international system, China's words have basically been "specialism", not "universalism", which means that China's development model corresponds to China's national conditions. How do you care about it.

To be honest, the so -called "international hegemon" is willing to be a country. Palestine's conflict, Rwida slaughter, Russia and Ukraine conflict, Iran nuclear weapons ... so many troublesome things, can you manage it? "Boss" is not good. When the "boss" is not only power, it also means endless responsibility.

Therefore, in these senses, I think Westerners may exaggerate China's international ambitions. Of course, I am not an expert in international relations. Comparing political science and international relations is completely two systems, so my discussions on all international relations are just my personal intuition.

Southern Character Weekly: What do you think of the global democratic system worldwide? You have also written the crisis that many countries encountered after the transformation, such as Egypt, India, Iraq, etc., will you feel that the driving force for democratic transformation in many countries is disappearing?

Liu Yu: It must be this. I also mentioned in the book that basically the majority of the academic community starts from around 2006, and the wave of democratic transformation worldwide began to decline. Of course Is it a tide? Still entering a platform period? This can be discussed, but at least, it is definitely not in the acceleration expansion, it is in a deceleration period. In this sense, it can also be said that it is a tide period. However, how to understand this ebb, it is necessary to analyze the reason. The ebb to ebb is not necessarily that the people will no longer believe in the democratic system, but to achieve many conditions for democracy. If the conditions of democracy are not sufficient, democracy will collapse.

03.

Under what circumstances can I endure Bill Gatsby I am 1 million times more richer?

Southern Character Weekly: In the chapter of political economics, you use two countries to discuss the impact of politics on the economy. Interesting, "When equality becomes the only religion, the door of evil can be knocked out by good fingers." What do you think of economic inequality and the disparity between the rich and the poor that now plagued the world?

Liu Yu: In recent years, some of the award -winning films may also notice, such as "Clown", "Parasites" ... The spearheads of these movies point to the disparity between the rich and the poor. They are not isolated works, but represent a trend : In the world, the anger of the disparity between the rich and the poor is increasingly heating up. What I want to discuss is how to understand the inequality of our era? Do we have returned to the "gold -plated era" more than a hundred years ago?

It is disturbing that the unequal unequal to the poor and the poor has a tendency of self -strengthening. More money can buy better education, better education brings better future, and better future creation is greater inequality. This is the vicious cycle of class curing. The more the rich and the poor, the more severe the class is solidified, because the longer the ladder, the harder it is to climb to the top.

Scholar Martin Gilens's "Wealth and Influence" studied the 20 -year public policy of the United States, and found that when the preferences of the poor and the rich are inconsistent, the probability of policies is much greater than the preference for the rich. Therefore, he concluded that American politics is the essence of oligopoly politics. Once a society is highly unequal, even if it adopts a democratic coat, it may still be reduced to oligopoly politics. Of course, his research is also very controversial. Many scholars criticize his "class opposition" political narrative, because most of the time, the policy preferences of different levels of the United States are highly overlapped. Even when a small number is different, the "preferences of the poor" may represent "rational" and "correct".

Another point is more and more consensus of more and more scholars: height unequal to economic development, people usually think that between fairness and efficiency, only one can be selected. For efficiency, sometimes they have to sacrifice fairness. But now more and more scholars believe that excessive inequality is not only helpless to efficiency, but even becomes a stumbling block of efficiency. The reason is simple. You are desperately investing in production, and no one has money to consume. For many industries, the so -called "overcapacity", in other words, is "insufficient consumption". The most serious consequences of the disparity between the rich and the poor are political turmoil. This is the case, whether in developed countries or developing countries. Southern Character Weekly: In ancient China, he especially liked to describe the knights of "robbing the rich and the poor", but "robbing the rich and the poor" is a kind of "downward equality". How should modern society respond to the propositions of the disparity between the rich and the poor?

Liu Yu: When society is unequal to a certain degree, many ordinary people will desire an immediate rich and poor mechanism. The most immediate thing is to pull down the person, it is easy to go downhill, this is "downward equality." And "upward equality" is slow and needs patience, because it is not to pull the people above, but to pull the people below, expand the social resources, and make the cake bigger. However, to make the cake bigger, "equality" must be coexisting with other values, such as order, incentives for investment, protection of property rights, and so on. The predicament of modern society is often the dispute between good good.

The gap between the rich and the poor in the world is essentially different from the "gold -plated era" at the end of the 19th century. The absolute poverty rate at the end of the 19th century was 90%, and now it is 10%. We cannot get rid of this most fundamental difference and directly equate today with the "gold -plated era" because the wrong diagnosis will bring wrong prescriptions. How miserable the "tragic world" is. In simple terms, the poor can not afford to eat, and the meaning is different from the poor. If my life can maintain a well -off, then I don't mind Bill Gatsby I am 10,000 times or even 1 million times. However, if I do n’t eat the belly and my clothes, then even if Gates is only twice that I am more richer than me, I will feel indignant. So I always think that poverty is more fundamental than inequality.

Moreover, the causes of inequality are different in different times. Taking the United States as an example, research found that in recent decades, the most important reason for the gap between the rich and the poor in the United States is technological progress. Because the more advanced technology is, the more automated the production is, the more the workers are. The top ten rich people in the United States are almost all related to technological progress from Bedos and Gates. While technological progress has created a wealth, it also brings benefits to the entire society -we are also enjoying the convenience brought by WeChat, Taobao, Meituan, and shared bicycles. Of course, for Americans, the benefits brought by Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, various social media, Netflix, etc.

Southern Character Weekly: If the rich and the poor caused by scientific and technological innovation, it will be more destructive to achieve equality in a way to draw down to achieve equality?

Liu Yu: The capital return rate in the technical field is very high. The driving force for technological innovation is likely to decline, the driving force for technological innovation is gone, and the phenomenon of inequality will decline, but social progress in many fields will also lose motivation. How do you choose? More equal but more vibrant society, or is more vibrant but more unequal society? It's not so easy to choose.

Southern Character Weekly: What are the strategies of this European and American developed countries, and do we have any lessons and lessons that we can refer to it?

Liu Yu: There are many welfare systems in Europe. In fact, the United States is actually, but it is not as obvious as European, so that many people think that the United States seems to be a completely self -flow country. In fact, not so, if you go to see the federal government's fiscal expenditure, you will find that in the past 100 years, social expenditures such as medical insurance and social security have risen sharply.

Many people are discussing "unconditional basic income", including directly sending money from the beginning of the previous two years. It is also an idea. I think the "unconditional basic income" is scientific compared to the traditional welfare system. It may be "lazy", but it does not "punish diligence". This is a good place. The disadvantage is that the cost is too high. Regarding the "unconditional basic income", many countries are doing experiments. There are some controversies about costs and effects. We can pay attention.

Southern Character Weekly: Although the welfare system can establish the damage, it may not change the problem of class curing? That is, the liquidity brought by the disparity between the rich and the poor has declined, and the poor are hungry, but the poor do not have much opportunity to achieve a rising level and flow upward.

Liu Yu: The research I have seen is this -we still take the United States as an example, because related research in the United States is the most developed. The social liquidity of the United States has not declined at the level you just said. The probability of the poor and the rich exchanged positions. Compared with the 1980s, it has not declined. What does it fall? It is the so -called "vertical liquidity". What does that mean? It is the probability of my living standard than my parents, and the living standard of my parents will exceed the probability of my grandparents. In this sense, its flow rate has decreased. This "vertical liquidity" declines, I don't think it must be a big problem, because economic development to a certain degree, you cannot assume that society must keep the same growth rate infinitely.

Southern Character Weekly: When talking about Huntington's civilization conflict theory, you mentioned that you don't agree with his concept of "civilized circle". Do you think more about the "civil war" and "lane war" of civilization. Can you explain it? Intersection Liu Yu: What I want to say is that the most fundamental conflict of civilization is the conflict between modern civilization and pre -modern civilization, not the so -called conflict between "Islam", "Confucianism", "Christianity", etc. The conflict between modern "" modern "civilization exists more or less in all countries, so I say it is" civil war "and" lane war ". Just divided by the "civilization circle", in contemporary, especially in the past two or three decades, the generalization of the generals has become increasingly decreased, and you can observe a lot of counter -examples. Like the polarization of American politics, the tear of Britain and even the entire Europe is actually a conflict inside the same civilization circle, and it is a "civil war" of civilization.

Southern Character Weekly: Under the intensification of world conflicts, global ebb and ebb, and epidemic, we all feel that people around us are prone to a general sense of weakness. It seems that the world we have known before has changed. The default values ​​are also changing, and young people like to hang "lying down" to express this weakness. Is there any medicine for political science?

Liu Yu: The problem of the times depends on what time you use to look at it. For ordinary people, it is generally understandable for their lives as a scale. In the life of a person, it is not long to be effective in life. When I was young, I didn't think about it, I couldn't think about the grand propositions of society and politics. When I was old, I was weak, and I might have less thought about these issues. The adult stage that will really worry about public affairs is just three or fifty years in the middle. With this time scale to see the advancement of history, you may be very disappointed, and may even feel that history has not improved, but is backward. I believe

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