The market value of Bubble Mart has shrunk sharply, and the boom becomes "bubble"?

Beijing Xidan Dayue City Bubble Mart offline store.

China's first bubble Mate is gradually fading the "growth myth" halo.

In July, the stock price of Bubble Mart has fallen significantly, and it has been cut off in just over 10 trading days. Looking at it, its stock price has fallen by 80 % after the stock price set at HK $ 107.6/share in February last year. From HK $ 150 billion to HK $ 30.9 billion.

From the perspective of the industry, the performance of Bubble Mart is the signal that the entire market tends to be rational development after the hot and cooling down. However, the frustration of Bubble Mart in the capital market does not mean that the domestic trendy market is cold, and the IP core of deep digging and playing the IP kernel is unlimited, which is the fundamental place for its long -term development.

Highlight and trough

The "Blind Box First" bubble Mart, the boom came quickly and went fast.

On December 11, 2020, Bubble Mart successively landed on the Hong Kong stock market, with a issuance price of 38.5 Hong Kong dollars per share, becoming the "first share of blind boxes". On the first day of its listing, it opened more than 100%to HK $ 77.1/share, with a market value of over 100 billion Hong Kong dollars. Two months later, the bubble Mate ushered in a high time, and the stock price rose to HK $ 107.6 per share, with a total market value of about HK $ 150 billion.

Public information shows that Bubble Mart is a well -known domestic tide -playing blind box company. In 2010, it started with trend department stores. In 2016, it started selling tide to play blind boxes. Currently, it is transformed into a tide -to -play full industry chain (IP operation, OEM production, consumption consumption, consumption consumption Persons touch and promote the promotion) brander.

Looking at the performance of Bubble Mart, the growth in 2018 and 2019 is extremely rapid -revenue growth has reached more than 200%. From 2019 to 2021, the company's growth rate was slightly slowed, but it was still considerable, and revenue achieved revenue of 1.683 billion yuan, 2.513 billion yuan, and 4.491 billion yuan, an increase of about 227.19%, 49.31%, and 78.66%. It was 451 million yuan, 524 million yuan, and 854 million yuan, an increase of 353.29%, 16.05%, and 63.20%.

From the perspective of market share, Bubble Mart has also soared. According to data from Fhstana, the market share of Bubble Mart in the domestic tide market increased from 8.5%in 2019 to 13.6%in 2021. In the past two years, blind boxes have been fired for a while because of the bubble Mart's lap. In 2020, the "Spacemol-LY" 1000%specification (70 cm) product jointly co-branded with Coca-Cola with Coca-Cola was once "stated" to tens of thousands of yuan by major trading platforms.

However, this high growth failed. Since July this year, Bubble Mart has continued to decline, falling more than 12%. The stock price has continued to reach a record low, and the market value has been cut over half a billion Hong Kong dollars at its peak. Up to now, the market value of Bubble Mart is HK $ 30.9 billion.

In addition, it should be noted that the negative news of Bubble Mart has been revealed when it has been stood on the cusp of public opinion due to false propaganda, returns difficulty, overlord clauses, secondary sales, and excess formaldehyde. It is understood that on the black cat complaint platform, complaints related to Bubble Mart have reached more than 8,000.

According to the national corporate information publicity system, in January this year, the "SKULLLPANDA Bear Mono Calling Series Trend Sock Blind Blind Blind Blind Blind Blind Blind Blind Blind" sold by a online shopping platform "Bubble Mate Flagship Store". % Of the spandex 3 % "; after investigation, the actual fabric content of the product did not meet its propaganda standards. In the same month, the official website of the China Consumer Association published an article "Use the" Blind Box "to induce the over -consumption of food to consumption, as the resistance", pointing directly at the "DIMOO Locked Blind Box Package" jointly launched by KFC and the blind box seller Mart The means of stimulating consumption have led to the phenomenon of food waste caused by over purchases. In May, Bubble Mart was repeatedly complained by consumers due to the quality problems of its blind box. Some consumers said that it cost 1199 yuan to buy the "Molly Collection Series 400 % Big Journey" doll purchased on the Bubble Mart WeChat Mini Program, There are serious quality problems: In addition to the stains that cannot be wiped off and some parts are dropped, some parts of the doll are still damaged. The consumer contacts the bubble Mate customer service staff to request the exchange, but the feedback obtained is: they cannot be exchanged, they can only return to the factory to return to the factory for repair. The maintenance time takes 2-3 months, and it is not guaranteed to be repaired. In June, Bubble Mart was reported by the media that there was a sexy hand -run problem that promoted or selling clothes to children, causing consumers to question.

Why fall into the "altar"

Bubble Mate encountered Waterloo in the capital market or was closely related to its performance in the first half of the year.

A few days ago, Bubble Mart issued a semi -annual profit early warning announcement that as of June 30, 2022, it is expected that the group's revenue is not less than 30%compared with the same period last year; In this regard, Bubble Mart explained that due to the repeated and multi -point distribution of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in the first half of the year, not only part of the offline stores and robot stores were suspended, but the timeliness of online logistics was also affected; coupled with consumption consumption The decrease in consumer willingness and passenger flow has led to a decline in performance growth.

In fact, in addition to the uncontrollable factors such as the epidemic, the frustration of Bubble Mart in the capital market is not related to the favor of the young people. On the Xiaohongshu APP, the "Bubble Mart's Retreat" related notes have exceeded 10,000; in the second -hand market, the price of MEGA, which was once fired to 15,000 yuan, has been cut, and ordinary products are on the idle fish platform. Two discounts can be taken away by shipping. "The emergence and growth of this emerging category of Chao Play, I have a positive and anticipated attitude. After all, this is a new consumption trend. But I think the market value of Bubble Matt has previously exceeded 100 billion Hong Kong dollars, which is the capital market. The valuation is too high. "Wen Zhihong, chair and general manager of He Hong Chain Consultation, bluntly stated in an interview with the China City Newspaper reporter that the bubble Mate did not form a truly unique competitiveness in the product. "It is not wide enough and not deep enough. At the same time, the market competition of the Blind Blind Blind Box will be more intense. It is not easy to continue to grow high in the future.

In an interview with the China City Daily reporter, the Internet and the game industry pointed out that as a tide brand, Bubble Mate has been undergoing blind boxization and toy, that is, the promotion of the trend toys to the trend culture; this There must be pain in the process, and it is necessary to face the situation where external blind box manufacturers' competition and the overall market growth of the blind box. These factors have caused the dilemma of the short -term plunge of Bubble Mart's stock price to a certain extent.

In Zhang Shule's opinion, the tide game itself is entering the deep -water area, from a superficial gameplay such as a blind box to more vertical segmentation of the trend culture to meet the personalized needs of consumers who seek individual differences in "Gen Z". Instead of adhering to the model of unified blind boxes of collecting standards. Therefore, the process of rising this industry will also make the previous leader's problem of turning around.

Wu Yanqi, CEO of Shengqisheng Company, Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, told the China City News reporter that in the environmental environment, it is difficult for Tide to play these categories by users and continue to consume repeatedly; coupled with the popularity of nearly two years, blind box marketing The concept is no longer mysterious. After a while, the market has returned to a relatively rational development trend after Bubble Mart and other capitals.

Brand goes to sea or become "life -saving straw"

Perhaps in the eyes of Bubble Mart, the brand's overseas is a "second growth curve" that can be remembered.

On July 16, Bubble Mart opened his first store in Tokyo, Japan. On the day of opening, the first -time limited "LABUBU diver suspension card" caused local fans to queue up to buy. Chinese trend IPs such as MOL-LY, SKULLPANDA, DIMOO have also attracted a large number of Japanese trend enthusiasts.

Bubble Mate management is also quite "ambitious" for the development of overseas business. Vice President Mate and CEO of Overseas Business, Wende has revealed that in the next 10 years, international business will be one of the most important points of Bubble Mart. This is consistent with the description of the 2021 annual report of Bubble Mart. The annual report shows: "In 2022, we will accelerate overseas layout and export trendy toy culture from Chinese brands to the world."

In fact, as early as 2018, Bubble Mart has begun to expand overseas markets, promote brand and tide culture. Since the beginning of this year, Bubble Mart Europe's first shop, Oceania's first store, and American pop -up stores have opened one after another. Bubble Mart's management revealed at a recent exchange meeting that there are currently 26 stores in Bubble Mart, of which 12 are fixed long -term stores, 14 are pop -up stores with a lease period of about one year; It is expected that by the end of this year, the bubble Mate store will open to 42.

In this regard, Zhang Shule believes that overseas expansion is also a way to explore new markets. In the case where the blind box economy has gradually cools down, it takes time to quickly complete the transformation from trendy toys to trendy culture. However, it is a fast and effective path to promote the gameplay in overseas markets to fight for longer window periods and more profits.

In Wu Yanqi's opinion, Mart's overseas strategy is a little overwhelmed. "Compared with the well -known and classic IP, the inner cultural and content support of Bubble Mart is still slightly insufficient. Perhaps the way of getting consumer support in marketing may be able to support the long -term development of IP." Wu Yanqi said Essence

In recent years, the cultural industry and cultural consumption are gradually becoming a new economic growth point. The field of trendy culture has blossomed everywhere. The performance of the toy market with independent IP and trendy attributes is particularly eye -catching. According to Ai Media Consultation forecast, the market size of the global tide game industry was 149.31 billion yuan in 2020, and it is expected to achieve 249.48 billion yuan by 2023. The development space of this segmentation track is high enough.

Although the domestic tide market starts late, in addition to the bubble Mate on this track, it also gathers "players" such as unicorn, TOP TOY, 52TOYS and other "players". As of the end of 2021, there were more than 3,000 related companies in my country, of which 52TOYS, Dimensional Chao Play, Kaitian Studio and other brands have received financing as low as one million yuan as low as 100 million yuan.

From the perspective of the industry, taking the heat of Bubble Mart as an example, the life cycle of domestic tide playing IP is short, and there are still essential differences between various types of IPs such as Disneyland in movies and animations.EssenceTherefore, Zhang Shule suggested that for the tide -playing brand represented by Bubble Mart, more importantly is to form a batch of tide brand IPs with stories and rejuvenates, instead of one by one."".■ Reporter of China City News: Zhang Yaxin Wen Tu

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