In Ningde Times and Tianqi Lithium, is 90%of lithium recovery rate reality or virtual?

Recently, Ningde Times and Tianqi Lithium industry, the "interval" of the upstream and downstream enemies, attracted many onlookers.

At the 2022 World Power Battery Conference, the phrase "lithium recovery rate reached more than 90%" by Zeng Yuqun, the chairman of Ningde Times, triggered a sharp decline in the stock price of the lithium mine sector. Subsequently, the "lithium king" Tianqi lithium industry was suspected of "returning" separation, saying that lithium recovery can theoretically, and it cannot be recovered on a large scale in theory. , But have n’t seen it yet. ”

01

Where did the money go?

Why are the two giants snoring on lithium recovery? Its background is that the price of upstream raw materials upstream of battery has skyrocketed in the past two years. Taking lithium carbonate as an example, it was about 40,000 yuan/ton in 2020. Since 2021, it has skyrocketed. Among them, battery -grade lithium carbonate continued to rise from 72,000 yuan/ton in early 2021 to about 480,000 yuan/ton today. CITIC Securities, Galaxy Securities and other institutions also predict that lithium prices will maintain high operation throughout the year.

Image source: Wild Swanwa Net

The surge in raw material prices directly affects the profitability of related enterprises, and also makes the power battery conference a complaint and complaint conference. At the meeting, Zeng Qinghong, chairman of GAC Group, called bitterly, complaining that money was made by battery manufacturers, and he also laughed at himself to work for Ningde Times. In this regard, Zeng Yuqun said that he did not carry the price of power batteries, which was caused by the capital hype of upstream raw materials. Wu Kai, chief scientist in Ningde Times, also said that the Ningde era struggled at the edge of profit.

In the new energy industry chain, only the upstream lithium miners can earn "full of money." According to statistics, the performance forecast of the first half of 2022 disclosed by the A -share lithium mine concept enterprise is generally better, and its net profit has achieved a great increase year -on -year. Among them, Tianqi Lithium predicts that the group's net profit in the first half of the year will be 9.6 billion to 11.6 billion yuan, an increase of more than 110 times year -on -year. Ganfeng Lithium predicts that the net profit in the first half of the year will be 7.2 billion to 9 billion yuan, a year -on -year increase of 4-5 times.

In contrast, the profit of battery manufacturers is damaged. Due to many aspects such as the rise in raw materials, in the first quarter of this year, the income increase in Ningde Times did not increase its profit, and net profit fell by 23.6%. Vehicle manufacturers have also been impacted. Since this year, Tesla, Xiaopeng, BYD and other car companies have increased prices.

In order to cope with raw materials, in addition to mining, battery recovery is also a good way. At the meeting, Zeng Yuqun emphasized that the lithium ore resources were abundant and the lithium recovery rate was above 90%, and it was also putting pressure on upstream manufacturers. Affected by this, the lithium ore sector fell sharply that day, Tianqi Lithium fell more than 7%, and Ganfeng Lithium fell more than 5%.

02

Technology is feasible, reality is difficult

So, is the recovery rate of more than 90%of lithium in Ningde Times feasible?

It is understood that in 2015, Ningde invested in Guangdong Bangpu, a power battery recycling enterprise, and laid out the battery recycling business. The Ningde Times Bangpu Integrated New Energy Industry Project, which costs 32 billion yuan, is mainly the main purpose of the "Nuggets" waste power battery. Construction has been started in December 2021. Guangdong Bangpu previously claimed that through the "directional cycle" technology, the comprehensive recovery rate of core metal materials in waste batteries could reach more than 99.3%.

In addition, in early July this year, the battery recycling company Greenmi responded to investors' questions on the interactive platform that the company's lithium recovery rate could reach more than 90%.

In this regard, Wang Jingzhong, vice chairman of the China Battery Industry Association, said in an interview with the China Automobile News reporter: "Technically, the technology and equipment of large enterprises are relatively advanced. %Can be done completely. As for the technology and equipment of small and medium -sized enterprises, it may not be achieved. "

Wang Zidong, the director of the Power Battery Laboratory of the North China Institute of Vehicle Research, told reporters: "Bangpu is a company specializing in recycling, and has lithium lifting technology, but it is difficult to say if it can reach 90%because the evaluation standards are different."

Li Longhui, director of the Research Office of Zhongqi Data Co., Ltd., also mentioned similar issues in an interview with reporters. It is understood that the current waste battery recycling generally uses the steps of crushing-sort-heat decomposition-re-sorting-removal-precipitation-replacement. And there will be a certain loss from the entire waste battery to the black powder. When calculating the recovery rate, the reference object is based on the entire waste battery or black powder. The values ​​obtained are different.

Wang Jingzhong told reporters that from the perspective of the industry, how many lithium was used, how much waste batteries were produced, and finally recycling how many lithium was extracted, and the recovery rate could be obtained through big data calculations. "If all the waste batteries are collected, the recovery rate of lithium can be reached very high. The problem is that at least half of the waste batteries are taken away by small enterprises and individual households. The price is very high, and you can make money with a little processing. In this way, the overall recovery rate of the industry is not high, "he said.

This problem not only appeared in China. In fact, in March this year, the EU's "New Battery Law" also put forward new requirements for battery recovery rates. Among them, by 2026, the lithium recovery rate will increase from 35%to 70%to 90%in 2030. It can be seen that the recycling rate of lithium in the European Union is not high. In order to push China, the industry level will not be too different.

In other words, from a technical point of view, it is very likely that the lithium recovery rate of Ningde Times, Greenmei and other companies such as 90%is more than 90%, but maybe only large enterprises can do it, and the level of a single enterprise does not represent the industry level. Essence Tianqi Lithium claims that it cannot be applied to large -scale business. It may not be technology, but the current battery recycling mechanism is not mature, and the levels of various enterprises are uneven, which greatly reduces the recovery level of the entire industry. 03

Far water is difficult to solve thirst

The recovery rate is not the same for the time being, but it is certain that battery recycling must be a good business. At this conference, Wang Zhenpo, deputy director and secretary -general of the China Industrial Energy Conservation and Clean Production Association's new energy battery recycling and utilization professional committee, said that in the next 5 years, the average annual volume of power batteries will reach 20GWH to 30GWH or 160,000 tons, by 2026, 2026 The annual cumulative retirement volume exceeds 142.2GWh or 926,000 tons.

This is a huge number. It can be seen that the commercial value of battery recycling is huge. Because of this, in recent years, the capitals of Ningde, Volkswagen Group, BMW and other parties are accelerating the layout.

The competent government department also holds clear support. At the conference, Zhang Yunming, deputy minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said that it will accelerate the cultivation of related enterprises that use and recycle regeneration.

In addition, battery recycling involves not only commercial value, but also compulsory requirements. For example, the European Union's "New Battery Law" put forward corresponding requirements for the minimum proportion of recycled raw materials in the four metals of cobalt, lead, lithium, and nickel used in electric vehicle power batteries. By 2030, the content of cobalt, lead, lithium, and nickel regeneration raw materials will account for 12%, 85%, 4%, and 4%, respectively; by 2035, it will increase to 20%, 85%, 10%, and 12%. This means that if Chinese manufacturers such as Ningde Times and Vision Dynamics want to continue their business in the European Union, they must ensure that the raw materials used in battery production must have a certain proportion of recycling and regeneration channels.

So, can battery recycling fill the demand for lithium supply? First of all, how much is the lithium obtained through recycling channels in the supply of power battery lithium? In this regard, Li Longhui said that there is no specific statistics for the time being, but the proportion is "small".

As for the future, Zeng Yuqun said: "After 2035, we can use the materials in retired batteries to meet a large part of market demand." Green Mei also said: "As the penetration rate of new energy vehicles increases, this market has become the stock market At the time, not just lithium, nickel and cobalt raw materials will also come from recycling. "One after the time point is set at 2035, one will wait for new energy vehicles to become the stock market, which means that battery recycling in the short term It is impossible to fill the lithium demand gap. The low overall recovery rate of the industry is one aspect. It is also an important reason for the rapid expansion of the new energy vehicle market. The market's demand for lithium resources is still increasing. CITIC Securities has recently released a research report saying that the probability of lithium prices is low in the short term.

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