Is it a bounce or a flash?The price of black products stops falling and rising

Our reporter Zhang Min's apprenticeship reporter Liu Zhao closed on July 26. The price of domestic black product futures was mostly popular, and he changed his early decline. Among them, the main price of iron ore rose 5.57%, the main price of coking coal rose 1.02%, the main price of coke rose 0.68%, the main price of the thread rose 0.34%, and the main price of Zheng coal rose 0.09%. This is also the third consecutive day of black ore, coking coal and coke. Since the beginning of this year, the price of black products has continued to fluctuate. Does the recent continuous rebound mean that the price of black products has bottomed out? Lin Boqiang, Dean of the China Energy Research Institute of Xiamen University, said in an interview with the Securities Daily reporter, "At present, the prospect of the black commodity market is still not optimistic. Recently The adjustment phase of the cycle. "The downward cycle may continue to rise and rebounded for the recent black -based commodity prices. The vitality is slightly improved, PMI and PPI continue to transaction exchange trend, and the weak supply and demand pattern of some commodities is reflected. But this balance is still fragile. The core is that the supply elasticity is large and the consumption elasticity is small. The rate of recovery is fast, and it will eventually affect the balance. "Taking the coking industry as an example, on July 21, the marketing members of the Zhongjiao Association held a market analysis meeting, and major coking enterprises across the country attended the meeting. Participants reported that the market situation was still very severe. Steel manufacturers are still increasing, and at the same time, the price of coke is suppressed by consuming inventory to reduce normal purchases. All enterprises have suffered huge losses, and many companies have no marginal contributions and are formulating plans to stop production. Participating companies believe that only in the short term to reduce production can we stabilize coke prices as soon as possible and avoid a large area of ​​survival crisis in the industry. In order to cope with the unfavorable market environment, recently, Shanxi Province issued the "Opinions on Promoting the High -quality Development of the Coking Industry", which proposed that by 2025, the total energy consumption and energy consumption strength of the entire industry will achieve a "double decline" compared with 2020. Coking enterprises have comprehensively passed the "survival line" and strive to reach the "development line" by more than 30%. Scientific regulation of coking capacity and coke output, the total coking capacity regulation system is implemented. The total coking capacity of the province is within 143.724 million tons, and the coking capacity is no longer new. Analysis report released by the Shanxi Coking Coal Trading Center on July 22 shows that the coke market is currently operating weakly. The fourth round of coke has been fully landed, and the cumulative decline in a total of 900-940 yuan/ton. The production enthusiasm of coke enterprises is not high, the scope of production is further expanded, the operating rate has decreased, the coke supply continues to tighten, and the inventory remains low. In terms of ports, the market sentiment is sorrowful, the spot of coke is weakened, and the overall transaction is deserted. The operating rate of downstream steel mills has decreased slightly. Some steel plants have been maintained and produced in blast furnaces. The inventory is low in multiple places. The focus of focus is still on demand. Essence In summary, the steel mills continue to lose money, coke has just needed to continue to decline, and it is expected that the short -term coke market or disadvantaged operation. Cao Jianyong said, "In 2022, black products were affected by the global recession, and the supply and demand structure at home and abroad changed significantly. Domestic presentation in China showed more and low -consumption structures, and foreign countries showed less consumption and consumption. As overseas demand continued to decline , The total exports of goods continue to decline, leading to the decline in foreign demand year -on -year. Domestic housing -building deleveraging is gradually landing, causing the contradiction between supply and demand in China, and the price decline is due to the factors that are greater than demand. "Future development is still available in response to the market. In the prosperity, some industry associations even issued initiatives, calling on the industry to prepare for three years of hard life and difficult life, and reduce costs while practicing internal skills. Among them, at the market analysis meeting of Zhongjiao Association, the participating companies reached three consensus. One was to reduce the operating rate to 50%by July 24, and suspend sales before the profit recovery; Stop or maintain the minimum purchase of coking coal before the decline; the third is that the principle of "pre -collection" is not shaken to avoid major risks. On July 22, the Manganese Professional Committee of the China Railway Alloy Industry Association issued an initiative to call on membership units to strictly restrict production and reduce production by more than 60%; minimize foreign ore procurement to avoid the risks brought by high ore prices; the entire industry does to do it Three years of hard work, preparing for dilemma, practicing internal skills, reducing costs. "The future trend of black products mainly depends on the trend of the global economy. In terms of past experience, the saying of three years of bitter days may not be alarmist." Lin Boqiang said, "Because the current oil and gas prices are still high, the prices of coal -related goods and oil and gas are The price is strongly linked, and the price of coal -related products is less than other black products. "Cao Jianyong believes that the recent initiative issued by some industry associations is to worry about the market environment from the perspective of the entire industry. In recent years, my country's economy has developed rapidly, and the development of multiple supporting industrial chains has also been prosperous. However, since the third quarter of last year, the rhythm of deleveraging and reducing growth rates in China represents the slowdown in demand, which has broken the logic of the supply showing a tight balance. From the perspective of the development of black products, the future pattern will still have better vitality after adjustment.

Cao Jianyong said, "First of all, as the basic industrial product, black products must be the main force of economic development in the recovery cycle. Secondly, the current domestic supply and consumption also show the same problem.When it appeared, the amount of Chinese people used was low, so the development space in the future was still large. "Picture | Site Cool Hero Bao Map Network Production | Zhou Wenrui Review | Li Chunlian Editor | He Fan Cai Shan Dan's final trial | Peng Chunlai

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