Excessive production of new crown vaccines?Experts: The overall market space will become smaller and smaller, but the story of the vaccine is far from over

Recently, Omikon BA.5 mutant strains with stronger immunization and escape ability have come, and they have reproduced the epidemic in many places in China. From a global perspective, although the new crown epidemic has not yet faded, it has been regarded as a new crown vaccine that has been regarded as the most powerful weapon to end the epidemic.

The domestic vaccine leader Kangtai Bioschan (SZ300601, the stock price of 35.85 yuan, and a market value of 40.2 billion yuan) recently disclosed the semi -annual performance forecast of 2022 showing that due to the decline in demand, the company's new crown vaccine sales fell rapidly, and a large amount of new crown vaccine -related assets were filed a large amount. Improvement. In the international market, as early as April this year, Johnson & Johnson said that the company stopped vaccine production due to the overcapacity of the new crown vaccine.

How much market space does the new crown vaccine have? For a large number of new crown vaccines in the clinical trial stage, how should the follow -up market be expanded?

At noon on July 26, Jin Dongyan, a professor at the School of Biomedicine at the University of Hong Kong, told the reporter of "Daily Economic News" on the phone that the new crown vaccine is certain that the overall market space will be smaller and smaller. Facing the same problem. However, Jin Dongyan also mentioned that the new crown vaccine in the future is likely to become seasonal vaccination and may become one or once every two years per year. "Overall, the story of the vaccine is far from over. The key to our vaccine is to rely on technological innovation. If we can make up for the lack of existing vaccines, there is still a market space."

Can't sell the new crown vaccine?

In April of this year, the news that some investors calculated the news of the "Koxing New Crown Vaccine 2021 net profit of 90 billion yuan" spread across the market. When the market is still thinking about whether the myth of the wealth creation of the new crown vaccine can last, it is now already on. Some companies said -the new crown vaccine can't be sold.

On July 24, Kangtai Bio disclosed the semi -annual preview of 2022. The company is expected to achieve operating income of 1.828 billion yuan in the first half of this year, an increase of 73.72%year -on -year; Fall 70.29%~ 61.37%.

Image source: Announcement Screenshot

It is worth noting that for the reasons for increasing income, Kangtai Bio said that the main reason is the impairment of assets related to the new crown vaccine and the cost of clinical expenditure phase III. "Since the second quarter, the new crown vaccination environment at home and abroad has changed significantly, the demand for new crown vaccines has declined, and the company's new crown vaccine sales have fallen rapidly; Ukraine phase III clinical data is dismantling blindly, and subsequent sales are great uncertainty. "

Kangtai Bio said that the company's new crown vaccine -related inventory products, raw and auxiliary materials, self -made semi -finished products, and the new crown vaccine development expenditure for the end of March 2022 will be prepared for asset impairment preparations for the development expenditure. The cost of the new crown vaccine research and development expenditure is 140 million yuan. The total of the above matters reduced the total profit of 555 million yuan, considering the impact of deducting deductions, and reducing net profit by 452 million yuan.

Kangtai's new crown vaccine has just been listed in China for just one year. The new crowns developed by the company in May 2021 were approved for emergency use in China in May 2021. They were sold in China in June 2021 and became the sixth domestic paragraphs of new crown vaccines approved for emergency use or listing. According to the company disclosed "Issuance of Convertible Company Bonds Raising instructions", the "Baiwangxin Emergency Project Construction Project" is mainly used for the production of new crowns and active vaccines. The total investment of the project is 2.381 billion yuan, and the project operation period is 10 In the year, the design capacity is 200 million doses/year.

In addition, the new crown vaccine of the adenovirus carrier of Kangtai Biological and Astraon was urgently authorized by the Indonesian National Pharmaceutical and Food Regulatory Administration in October 2021 and achieved exports. In 2021, Kangtai Bio achieved revenue of 3.652 billion yuan, of which export revenue reached 957 million yuan, an increase of 39020.94%year -on -year. The company did not disclose the specific sales of the new crown vaccine last year. However, according to CITIC Construction Investment Securities, the new crown vaccine contributed more than 50%of the company's revenue in 2021.

In order to further understand the situation, the reporter contacted the Kangtai Biological Securities Department. After sending an outline of the interview as required, as of the post, the press was not received.

In fact, it is not just Kangtai's new crown vaccine. The net profit of transnational giant Johnson & Johnson has declined year -on -year in the first quarter of this year. It stated that due to the overcapacity of the new crown vaccine, the vaccine production was stopped, which led to the decline in the company's vaccine income. Johnson's new crown vaccine type was the adenovirus vector vaccine. According to the Financial Association, due to the downturn, governments, vaccine manufacturers and vaccination stations of various countries have discarded hundreds of millions of new crown vaccines.

The market space of the new crowns is reduced

The new crown vaccine is still the most powerful "weapon" in the epidemic prevention and control. According to data from the National Health and Health Commission, as of July 23, 2022, the basic immune vaccination rate in China was 89.7%, and the immune vaccination rate was 71.7%. Among them, at least 1 dose of vaccination rate for the elderly over 60 years of age is 89.6%, the entire vaccination rate is 84.7%, and the immunization vaccination rate is 67.3%.

At present, a total of 7 new crown vaccines can be sold in the country. Except for Zhifei Bio (SZ300122, a stock price of 107.41 yuan, and a market value of 171.9 billion yuan), the new crown vaccine and Kangshino (SH688185, the stock price is 164.14 yuan, with a market value of 40.6 billion yuan. ) Outside the new crown vaccine of the adenovirus carrier, the rest are new crowns. From the perspective of existing research, the orderly strengthening immunity can be more effective to deal with the new crown mutant strains. Since most of the domestic basic immunity is in vaccination with new crowns, the restructuring protein vaccine of Zhifei Bio and the new crown vaccine of the adenovirus carrier of Cumino Enhance the vaccination for the order approved by the country. From this point of view, the new crown vaccine of Kangtai Bio is an active vaccine. In the case of the basic immunization rate in China nearly 90 %, its vaccine cannot be sold or reasonable.

Jin Dongyan told reporters that the oversupply of the new crown vaccine is yes, and the overall market space will become more and more shrinking, and the world is facing the same problem. However, he also emphasized that at present, the vaccination rate of vaccination and strengthening the immune vaccination rate of the elderly over 60 years of age is not enough, and the current vaccination rate is relatively low.

In the case of continuous appearance of mutant strains, some countries have begun to promote the fourth pins of new crown vaccines. So, do China need to consider vaccination for the fourth crown vaccine? In this regard, Jin Dongyan said that from the perspective of real world experience, the three stitches of three stitches have a role in preventing severe illnesses and anti -death, but to produce more stable protection effects, it is also necessary to vaccinate four needles.

Image source: Visual China-VCG111370155034

According to data from the National Health and Health Commission, as of August 2021, China has provided over 800 million new crown vaccines to over 100 countries and international organizations, ranking first in the world. However, since this year, due to the changes in the overseas epidemic situation and the changes in prevention and control policies, vaccine exports have also shked up sharply.

According to statistics from Guotai Junan, in 2021, the total exports of the Chinese vaccine exceeded 100 billion yuan, most of which were the export of the new crown vaccine; but in the first six months of 2022, the total export of Chinese vaccines was only 5.11 billion yuan.

Jin Dongyan also said that before the rapid approval and mass production of domestic manufacturers, when foreign manufacturers had not yet entered the production capacity, they quickly occupied a number of overseas markets; while some countries have changed their prevention and control policies, and they are inoculation of enhanced needles. At the time of choosing a mixing, the demand for domestic manufacturers' vaccine market is also obvious.

"The story of the vaccine is far from the end"

Has the new crown vaccine's "rich myth" ended?

On the one hand, there are already large impairment due to the decline in the demand for the new crown vaccine. On the other hand, the new crown vaccines of various domestic routes are still in clinical trials and are still lining up. Among them, it is worth noting that MRNA vaccines introduced by Fosun Pharmaceutical (SH600196, stock price of 47.42 yuan, and market value of 121.5 billion yuan) have been approved. The MRNA vaccine with Watson (SZ300142, a stock price of 43.55 yuan, and a market value of 69.7 billion yuan) has already been In the third phase of clinical trials.

Jin Dongyan said, "Generally speaking, the story of the vaccine is far from over. The key to our vaccine is to rely on technological innovation. If we can make up for the lack of existing vaccines, there will still be market space." He analyzed that the new crown vaccine in the future will be It is likely to become a seasonal vaccination, which may become one or once a year inoculation every year.

Jin Dongyan said that the key to domestic new crown vaccines depends on technological innovation and develop new vaccines. "One is a vaccine for the new popular strains. You must be able to make it quickly, and the new market can be opened. Another one must have a new technical route vaccine, such as MRNA vaccine, poisoning live vaccine, nasal injection new crown vaccine To make these, it can also arouse some market demand. "

For the activated vaccine, Jin Dongyan believes that its market opportunities lies in the rapid research and development speed of the exterior vaccine for Omikon's mutant strains. If it can be listed earlier, there will still be some market space.

At present, Omikon is still the main popular plant in the world, but has not yet been approved for the new crown vaccine for Omikon. Recently, at the press conference of the State Council ’s joint prevention and control mechanism, Feng Zijian, Executive Vice President and Secretary -General of the Chinese Association of Prevention Medical Association, said that many technical routes in my country have carried out the development of unit prices and multi -priced Omikon mutant plants.

According to its introduction, the fast -moving unit of Omiroko mutant vaccine has been approved by clinical trials and is conducting clinical trials in many places in Zhejiang, Hunan, Hong Kong and other places; Phase III clinical trial approval, related research has been launched; in addition, the research on the broad -spectrum virus vaccine has also been deployed. The rapid progress of vaccine has obtained clinical trial approval and related research has been launched.

Daily Economic News

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