The scale of the central bank's reverse repurchase operation has frequently changed the monetary policy camera choice and refined characteristics of the monetary policy.

Author:Securities daily Time:2022.07.26

26Jul

After our reporter Liu Qi implemented a 3 billion yuan 7 -day reverse repurchase operation in 3 consecutive days, on July 25, the People's Bank of China (hereinafter referred to as the "central bank") increased a small increase of 5 billion yuan 7 days against rebate. Buy, operating interest rates remain unchanged by 2.1%. In view of the expiration of 12 billion yuan of reverse repurchases on the day, the open market achieved a net recovery of 7 billion yuan. In this regard, Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, said that near the end of the month, factors such as fiscal revenue and expenditure and bank assessment will increase market liquidity. In this period, most of the central banks will increase the amount of inverse repurchase operations to cut peaks. Considering that the current market liquidity is at a relatively abundant level, the above factors may be limited, and the possibility of significantly increased the scale of reverse repurchase operations in the later period is relatively small. Since July, the funding of the interbank market has maintained a loose trend. DR007 (7 -day pledge repurchase interest rate for bank deposit financial institutions) has been operating under the 7 -day reverse repurchase interest rate. According to data from the National Banking Interbank Borrowing Center, as of 16:00 on July 25, DR007 was reported to 1.5199%. It is worth noting that in July, the central bank broke the "inertia" of 10 billion yuan of inverse repurchase at the end of the season at the end of the quarter and the end of the month since last year. In addition to the 10 billion yuan on July 1st and the 5 billion yuan reverse repurchase on July 25, the central bank launched 12 billion yuan and 7 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations on July 18 and July 19 respectively. In other times, 3 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will be carried out in other times. From the point of view and operation of the operation, the central bank's "fancy" this month has carried out reverse repurchase and there is no obvious law. In response, Wang Youxin, a senior researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, told a reporter from the Securities Daily that this shows that the current monetary policy operation is more flexible and accurate, and has the characteristics of camera choices and refined characteristics. In the context of the economic fundamentals and liquidity environments, the frequency of changes in the recent changes in inverse repurchase operations has increased, which has changed the mode of routinely developing 10 billion yuan reverse repurchase in the early stage. The main purpose is to achieve short -term liquidity equilibrium. The operation and interest rate changes are flexibly adjusted and peak -cutting the valley, and the liquidity adjustment method is more accurate. And with the frequent changes in the operation scale, its forward -looking significance for the trend of monetary policy has weakened, and it is in line with the policy direction of the "heavy price and not heavy" that the central bank has recently emphasized. Reflecting the direction of monetary policy. "Since July, the number of regulations for the central bank's reverse repurchase has increased, and the overall" land volume "level has been at the same time. At the same time, the average DR007 has not increased from the same period in June since July, and the market liquidity continues to be at a reasonable and abundant level. "Wang Qing said, first of all, this means that the current policy surface is continuing to provide support for economic restoration. Secondly, since July, the central bank has broken the previous cycle rolling to carry out the 10 billion yuan reverse repurchase model, and the operation scale has been "shrinking" as a whole to prevent the market from mistakenly believe that the liquidity of the economy will be overly loose after the economic transfer process. Finally, the global financial market has increased since July, and some risk events have emerged in individual domestic areas. The multi -adjustment of the central bank's reverse repurchase scale also reflects the flexible response of monetary policy and the policy intention of "walking in front of the market yield curve", thereby stabilizing market expectations and consolidating economic restoration momentum. CITIC Securities Research reports that since July, the central bank's inverse repurchase operation has become more accurate and flexible, and the operation scale has changed from an integer multiple of 10 billion yuan to an integer multiple of 1 billion yuan, and the frequency of change has increased. This may represent the central bank currency currency Policy operations use new frameworks. The changes in the number of reverse repurchase operations under the new framework cannot represent the steering of monetary policy. It may just be to better achieve the short -term (7 days) liquidity balance. The price of inverse repurchase interest rates, DR007, MLF interest rates, and LPR are more capable. Represents the direction of monetary policy. However, in Wang Qing's opinion, the number of reverse repurchase in July has changed many times, which more reflects the flexible response of monetary policy on funding conditions and market risks and emotions. Whether it means that the fundamental adjustment of the operation framework is yet to be observed. Wang Youxin believes that the central bank may continue to adopt the model of camera choices and flexible operations in order to better restrain and hedge market fluctuations.