Can Europe be done with Russia's "energy decoupling"?

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How to balance "sympathy Ukraine"

But the complex and subtle situation of "don't want to be frightened by yourself"

In mid -to -late July, most European countries are experiencing high temperature weather that breaks the historical record. Even cities such as London and Paris have high latitudes of latitude, and the temperature has exceeded 40 ° C. But among the raging heat waves, a European country is particularly anxious about itself.

Russia's Natural Gas Industry Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Russian Qi") announced earlier that due to "technical reasons", from July 11th to 21st, the "Beixi 1" natural gas pipeline that passed through the Baltic Sea to Europe will stop Ten days of gas supply. This allows the primary destination of the pipeline to fall into unprecedented energy anxiety and panic.

Since June, the natural gas conveying volume of the "Beixi 1" pipeline has been cut to 40 % of the output, and it does not exceed 67 million cubic meters per day. As one of the emergency response measures, Habeck, Vice Premier and Economic Minister of Germany, announced that Germany entered the second level of the emergency plan level of natural gas supply in Germany, namely the "alert" level, and launched a "gas saving" plan to appeal to appeal to appeal to appeal The whole people make more efforts to save natural gas. Many TV stations have begun to play promotional videos to advocate that German people should not take a hot bath for more than five minutes. In some local governments, the public swimming pools of local governments can only be forced to closing the door because they have no natural gas to heat the water in the pool.

On July 11, the "Beixi 1" gas transmission pipeline related facilities in the northern German city of Rubina. Photo/United

Some experts warned at the time that Russia completely cut off the gas supply of "Beixi No. 1" was only a matter of time. When it arrived in July, the confession arrived as scheduled. Seeing that the natural gas reserves in my hand entered a state of sitting and eating mountains, Habeck was unable to sit and rest, and even considering the amendment to the "Energy Safety Law", allowing energy companies to pass on a sharp increase in costs to consumers. At the bottom, natural gas as a strategic resource will be forced to enter the management stage of the distribution system.

Fortunately, on July 21, with the temporarily coming to an end of the "Beixi No. 1" turbine, Russia restored the gas supply of "Beixi 1" as scheduled, but it was still only transported at 40%of the output. However, on July 25, Russia said that because there was a technical problem in the turbines in the last two operating status, the daily gas supply dropped to 33 million cubic meters in the following three days.

When the "Beixi No. 1" fluctuated up and down, the anxiety and concerns of Germany were undulating, and they were worried about how they could spend this winter safely. In Europe, it is not just Germany who is disturbed and embarrassed. The European Commission Chairman Feng Delin warned on July 25 that the European Union should make the worst plans for Russia's natural gas supply, that is, "sooner or later stopped the natural gas supply."

"Beixi No. 1" turbine storm

The energy crisis alert that made the Germans nervous this time was originally a routine trivial matter, but in the extraordinary year of 2022, it caused a huge shock wave.

"Beixi No. 1" is a natural gas pipeline that leads to Germany through the bottom of the Russian sea. Before this pipeline was completed, Germany and other Western European countries imported from Russia from Russia. They must pass the Eastern European countries on land, including the "Amal -Europe" pipeline passing through Belarus and Poland, or the name "Alliance of Ukraine, Czech Republic and Slovakia. "Brothers" channels. It is not difficult to see from the name that these land pipelines were originally a part of the oil and gas pipeline system built by the country built within the Soviet Union during the Cold War and the economic mutual aid committee system. Essence

But Shi Shi was changed. After most of the Eastern European countries joined or got close to the European Union and NATO, the relationship with Russia had cracks. Whenever there is contradiction between Russia and Ukraine, the oil and gas supplied to Western Europe will be affected. At the same time, Germany and other countries must pay high transit costs to Poland and Ukraine. As early as Schroder's term as the prime minister, Germany has begun to study joint ventures with Russia to open a direct pipeline project to avoid various political and economic issues that may be generated by land pipelines. In 2011, the "Beixi 1" pipeline with a total length of 1230 kilometers was completed and officially infused in Germany. In the past ten years, the Beixi Pipeline, which reaches 1.22 meters, has transported more than 50 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Germany each year, accounting for more than 40 % of the total demand for natural gas in Germany.

As the world's longest underwater natural gas pipeline project, the "Beixi No. 1" pipeline requires large turbines to transport huge amounts of natural gas into pipelines paved on the bottom of the Baltic sea. These turbines produced by Siemens in Germany are also responsible for the company. According to Germany and Russia, Russia sent six turbines that need to be repaired to Germany last winter, while Siemens took the turbine to the Canadian branch for repair.

However, it was expected that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine this spring was increasing. Russia launched a "special military operation", and Western countries' sanctions on Russia have been fully upgraded. The turbines sent to Canada before the outbreak of the war became "equipment that may obtain funds for the Russian government" and was refused to be returned by Canada on the grounds of sanctioning Russia. In mid -June, Russia also reduced the natural gas conversion of the "Beixi 1" pipeline to 40 % of the usual normal. As soon as this move came out, it immediately affected the supply of direct destination Germany and other European countries that rely on the import of natural gas imported from the German pipeline system. In July, Russia further stated that if the six turbines were not delivered, the turbines that needed routine maintenance every summer could not be replaced. From July 11th, it would be completely disconnected for ten days. Depending on the situation ", it triggered an unprecedented energy panic. Technically, unlike power, the natural gas transported by pipelines can be stored. At this time, it is a summer with a low amount of gas. The supply fluctuates in a short time. influences. However, in the context of the intensification of Russia and Ukraine's conflict, Western countries were afraid of it.

A few months ago, because of the sanctions of the entire Western world, the ruble was almost kicked out of the global payment system of the Global Bank of Financial Communications Association (SWIFT). Natural gas must be settled with rubles instead of the euro specified in the contract. Although the two parties finally reached a compromise, Russia established a special bank to be responsible for receiving and settlement, bypassing the West's ban on Russian financial institutions. This incident was not there, and there was no actual affected supply.

As the "Beixi No. 1" turbine turmoil once again triggered a panic in "qi", of course, Germany understood that they needed to plan ahead, and the urgent prince was to step up the natural gas that was used in the winter. At the same time, in order to calm the turbine storm, Germany launched a diplomatic mediation for the first time, striving for Canada to return the detained turbine as soon as possible, and eventually successfully promoted Canada's exception. The German government also softened the body and repeatedly stated in public that "turbine is deducted" is a technical problem to avoid politicalization of this issue to lead to the upgrading of disputes. Recent

On the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, the Beixi project has always led the United States, which led the sanctions against Russia this time. On July 11, a US State Department spokesman Pryce issued a statement saying that the United States supports Canada to return the turbine to Germany, thinking that this will "improve the energy security and elasticity of European countries in a short time, but at the same time, it will not politely criticize Russia The practice of "energy weapons". Pryce's words are very particular. He said that the turbine is "returning to Germany", not "returning to Russia." Although theoretically these turbines are the property of the German -Russian joint venture, and they are also installed in Russia, but only to say that it is "returning Germany", and then transferred by Germany, Canada can "do not have to carry the black pot that violates sanctions". Essence

However, after Canada agreed to send the turbine to Germany, the Ukrainian government said "unacceptable." The Overseas Ukraine Organization "World Ukraine Conference" simply sued the Canadian government to court and asked Canada to take back the decision. For more than a decade, Ukraine has been strongly opposed to the Beixi project. In addition to the underwater pipeline by bypassing Ukraine, it has lost a large number of tolls, and the main thing is that Ukraine knows that Western European countries' dependence on Beixi will make them. When sanctioning or fighting against Russia, he even risked to Russia's "appeasement policy".

Natural gas "destiny door" that German energy dependencies relies on

After the spread of the new crown epidemic spread in Europe and hit the economy, governments of various countries originally expected that the economy could rebound in 2022. However, after the increasing Russian conflict, oil and gas prices have continued to skyrocket, and OPEC, the most important oil -producing country outside Russia, also refused to increase production, which has led major European and American countries to face extremely high inflation pressure. In the latest economic data of the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union, the inflation rate has basically reached nearly 10 %, and the conduction effect of rising energy prices is one of the key factors.

In NATO countries, Canada has long been a global energy export giant and a competitive relationship with Russia. Although the United States is the world's second largest energy consumer and the first natural gas consumer, the import of oil and gas resources in the past mainly comes from the Middle East and does not rely on Russia. After the technology of shale gas mining has matured in recent years, the United States can not only meet the huge needs of its country. Since 2017, it has become a net exporter of natural gas in one fell swoop, and its surplus has continued to expand. After the increasing Russian conflict this year, the total number of natural gas exported to Europe has even leapt more than Russia. It can be said that if Europe is gradually decoupled with Russia's energy, the United States and Canada may become a beneficiary.

European countries have different energy structures, and the supply of natural gas is very different. Italian and Germany are similar, highly dependent on natural gas supply from Russia, and Italian power departments mainly rely on natural gas power generation. Therefore, they are more comparable to Germany's current encounters. Southern European countries such as Spain and Portugal can obtain natural gas supply from Africa via the Mediterranean underground. It expresses clear opposition to the EU's "one -size -fits -all" gas -conservation gas initiative and believes that this will affect the industrial development and recovery plan of the country. Before the construction of the Beixi project, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia and other countries, which had gone to Germany and charged tolls through land pipelines, now have a sense of sorrow of rabbit fox. On the one hand, the Beixi project caused them to lose a lot of toll income, but on the other hand, they also fear that Russia would suddenly cut off the energy supply provided to them. Eastern European countries generally have a small economic volume, a single source of energy, no enough sources of supplies, and no large -scale storage capabilities. Once natural gas is off -supply, their economy will be unsustainable. According to a report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), if Russia comprehensively disconnects natural gas (including Beixi and Land Pipelines) to the European Union, Hungary, Czech Republic, and Slovakia's GDP may lose 6 %. Therefore, it is not difficult to understand that they have reservations for European comprehensive energy decoupling with Russia.

Because Britain has oil and gas resources in Beihai, about 40 % of natural gas demand can be self -sufficient. The rest mainly depends on pipeline transportation from Norway and the Netherlands. The proportion of Russia is very small. France is the country with the highest proportion of nuclear power in the world and the world's first power exporter. Fossil energy is basically only used as cars and aircraft fuels in France. Therefore, Britain and France have a general attitude towards Europe and Russia's energy decoupling. Such energy decourse will only affect the global energy market price and cause domestic price fluctuations, but it is far from reaching the level of affecting national security. Although Britain and France often have a very different position in Russia's diplomacy, in the face of the energy dilemma of Europe, Britain and France have basically remained silent.

But for the largest country in Europe, natural gas is exactly the "life door". Objectively speaking, the exterior of German energy supply is not the highest in Western countries. As an old -fashioned industry, traditionally, German energy sources rely on the huge coal reserves of their country to support. Until the beginning of this century, more than 25 % of the energy consumption in Germany came from coal, which was the world's third coal consumer. However, due to the high cost and emission reduction needs, Germany has shut down all the hard coal mines in the country in 2018. At present, only a part of the lignite is reserved for power generation.

Another major challenge in Germany is the environmentalist policy it adopted, even in European countries, it is extreme. The population and economic volume of Germany determined that it could not be completely transformed into green energy for a period of time. However, the mainstream public opinion in Germany "runs in front of the trend from a distance", which not only opposes the traditional fossil energy sources, but also has powerful and continuous anti -nuclear energy movements. The shadow of Chel Nobel nuclear disasters has shaped the basic disk of the entire European social anti -nuclear energy movement, but in the context of today's global calling for carbon reduction, the nuclear energy that is largely stable and can almost achieve zero emissions is at least compared to fossil energy than fossil energy sources. Selection. What's more, Germany also has a long history, leading and quite safe nuclear power record.

However, the German Green Party, as a pioneer of anti -nuclear movement, was the first time that the Red -Green Alliance government led by Schroder in the late 1990s, it was clear that Germany would completely eliminate nuclear energy power generation by 2022. Although the Merkel government later postponed the plan, the leakage of the Fukushima nuclear power plant in Japan once again rolled up the anti -nuclear sound of Germany. Helpless, Merkel could only restore the original nuclear schedule. The nuclear power that once accounted for more than 30 % in Germany has been shut down in the past ten years. Now only the remaining three nuclear power plants are still running, and quietly waiting for the end of the year at the end of this year.

It is eliminated with coal and nuclear energy, and green energy needs time to fill it. This allows Germany, which basically does not produce oil and natural gas, and can only temporarily rely on oil and gas imports. Germany has a special place in the field of natural gas imports. In addition to inland countries, Germany is a rare country in the world that has no liquefied natural gas (LNG) interface. Its natural gas of more than 10 billion cubic meters of demand is transported through land and marine pipelines. The LNG transport ships, which are extremely common in major ports around the world, have no use in Germany. In other words, even if the natural gas reserves in the country bottom, there is no way in Germany to directly import natural gas from North America or the Middle East to solve the urgent need. The "Beixi No. 1" pipe that meets the needs of 40 % of German natural gas is like the aorta of German energy safety, but the "heart" is placed on the other end of the Baltic Sea -Russia.

How to implement the determination of "zero dependence"

As Russia restored 40 % of the gas supply on July 21, the crisis of "Beixi No. 1" completely disappeared for a while. But Germany, who has repeatedly fell into "panic and panic", was in pain, trying to find a medium- and long -term solution.

The urgent prince of Germany is to expand the reserve capacity and step up the natural gas reserve. By September 1, Germany plans to allow 75 % of its natural gas reserves to reserve and reach 95 % on November 1st. In any case, it must be survived this year that this year is destined not to be too good. The second is the plan to improve the energy crisis. The German government has begun to reflect on the rigidity of the three -stage three -stage natural gas supply emergency plan. Shortly after the increasing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Germany has entered the first stage of the emergency plan since the end of March. However, this low -level warning is difficult for the Germans who have been suffering from the highest electricity price of the EU countries, and it is difficult to really have a sense of alert consciousness. In most European countries, energy supply is a "limited competitive market under high control". Family consumers can choose a more suitable power and gas supplier that is more suitable for their needs in a relatively free market. Generally, it will sign a fixed price contract with suppliers, ranging from one to two years. During the contract, unless government regulatory agency allows, energy suppliers cannot adjust the unit price based on the fluctuation of the energy market price. Generally speaking, this system does better guarantee that terminal consumers will not be affected by the international energy market price that has been fluctuated and stabilize the level of family consumption expenditure, but this also allows European people The expenditure bill is not too sensitive. After all, the demand for electricity and heating is roughly fixed for a family, and unexpected sky -price bills will not suddenly appear.

After the emergence of the "Beixi No. 1" turbine, Germany entered the "secondary" of the emergency plan, which theoretically allowed the public institution to transfer high prices to users, thereby stimulating users to reduce demand response. However, this price increase will not occur automatically, and it must be officially approved by the Federal Network Administration. It wasn't until July of the crisis, when the federal government began to discuss the possibility of price increases and release the wind, the general public in Germany realized that the sky -high bill was really likely. The Germans were panicked in a short period of time in the past few months. Therefore, how to make this early warning system at a faster speed and a smaller price, inspiring users to change their habits has become the focus of the next amendment policy.

At the same time, the timetable and planning of Germany's completely abolished coal and nuclear power, even the Green Party, is now willing to make compromises. Deputy Prime Minister Habeck put forward a new package of energy security plans on July 21. From October 1st, Germany will restart bronches to generate electricity to replace the current natural gas power generation. Even in the field of railway transportation, Germany, which has already completed railway electrification, will give priority to the restoration of inventory steam and internal combustion locomotives to save electricity. Habeck said that Germany needs lasting power, "this is not only related to the coming winter, but also related to the next winter." The meaning of Habeck's words is that in order to fulfill the goal of basically getting rid of Russia's natural gas in 2024, in the short term, the Green Party can also accept Germany to temporarily open a reverse on the high -speed road of eliminating traditional energy.

In addition, Germany is also seriously selected by the site. It is planned to build the LNG interface end in Shihe and Shima Saxon in the north to receive the natural gas of shipping. The scheduled is also completed by the end of this year. As for whether the nuclear power plant is retired at the end of the year on time, the government has not yet been clear. It seems that the Green Party should have a chance to have a result of 20 years for the Green Party to fight for 20 years. However, it is certain that if an energy gap occurs before the end of the year, the German nuclear power plant will be rejuvenated, and there should not be much political obstacles.

Although German Prime Minister Tzuz is the Social Democratic Party, the Green Party is now the second largest party in the United Government, and its influence on energy issues cannot be underestimated. In particular, the two important figures of the Vice Premier and Minister of Economy Habeck and Foreign Minister Bell Berbak are from the Green Party. The issues and energy security issues of Germany and Russia caused by the Russian and Ukraine conflict are the heads of their two. This time, the Green Party must prove that they can transform from an environmentalist party to a ruling party that can cope with the overall situation.

It should be acknowledged that after a considerable number of people in Germany experienced the panic of energy, the psychology of warfare is now increasing. It really has a little more hesitant and anxiety about the unconditional support of Ukraine in the country. The federal government, including the Green Party, must think clearly how to balance the "sympathy Ukraine" but also "do not want to be frightened".

Since Russia and Ukraine's conflict have exacerbated, in European powers, the British government has made the most positive, high -profile, and giving people a weapon, earning the favorability of the Ukraine. When Johnson announced his resignation as Prime Minister, Kyiv citizens seemed to be saddened than citizens in London. France adheres to the tone of foreign strategies that always like to stand in the middle of the two camps. Macron calls on both sides and tries to promote the two parties to talk at least while talking.

However, Germany's current situation is quite embarrassing. This energy crisis allowed some Germans to take the opportunity to ease or even promote Russia and even promote Russia, but the two world wars and the unique history of the post -war countries have split for nearly half a century. Special "political correctness" is that in things like Russia and Ukraine, the German government never dares to actively provoke the responsibility of persuasion as France. Essence It can be said that even if it may be affected by sanctioning Russia to the greatest influence, in addition to the tough stances that are similar to most allies, Germany does not have much choice in diplomacy. Since February, the Green Party has supported Ukraine high -profile and opposed Russia. When the current German President Steetimer served as a Foreign Minister in 2016, he criticized NATO over -stimulating Russia to intensify the situation. As a result, although Steinimer apologized this year and acknowledged that he miscalculated the situation that year, Ukraine still declined that it was already a virtual position. State Header's Steinmier visited Kyiv's expression of support in April. Many German people who have always been famous for "shameless admitting mistakes" have felt that the Ukraine government is too small to report Germany. However, as a foreign minister, Belbak quickly interviewed Kyiv in May. The group photo of her and Ukraine Foreign Minister Kulieba was also exquisite as a movie poster. In this visit, Belbak once again declared to the Ukraine that Germany would definitely reduce its energy dependence on Russia, "until zero."

After the increasing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the European Union led the initiative to save time for energy conservation. The President of the European Commission, Feng Delin, advocates that member states can reduce the amount of natural gas by 15 % in the next 8 months based on the principle of voluntary, and gradually reduce the energy dependence on Russia according to its own situation. However, implementing the initiative is by no means a day, and some EU member states mentioned earlier may be opposed to conservation because of their own affected very small influence. In the context of high international energy prices, it is just looking for stable alternatives. The source and enough reserve facilities will take a considerable period of time. At present, the realization of the willingness and determination of Russia's energy decoupling to be decoupled in Europe is beyond the past, but to to how much this determination can be practiced, involving how Europe coordinated internal position differences and analysis, the next step of the Russian and Ukraine conflict trends And many internal and external factors such as Russia's response still need to be observed.

(The author is a political commentator, a doctoral candidate for the Department of Sociology at Cambridge University in the United Kingdom, and a lecturer Zhou Ruirui, a lecturer at the Department of Sociology, Germany, also contributed to this article)

Author: Qu Fanfu

Capture: Wang Lin

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