Mao Zhenhua et al.: Euro or difficult to now glory

Zhongxin Jingwei, July 26th.

Author Mao Zhenhua's co -director of the Institute of Economic Research Institute of Renmin University of China, joint chairman of the China Macroeconomic Forum (CMF), Chairman of China Integrity Group

Wang Jinbin's executive deputy secretary of the Party Committee of the School of Economics of the People's University of China, a researcher at the National Institute of Development and Strategy, and a major member of the China Macro Economic Forum (CMF)

On January 1, 1999, a unified monetary policy was implemented in the European Union countries of the euro. In July 2002, the euro became the legal currency of the euro zone. In the second quarter of 2002, the percentage of the euro in the global foreign exchange reserves was 21.39%. As of the first quarter of 2022, the ratio of the euro in global foreign exchange reserves fell to 20.06%.

Twenty years have passed, and the proportion of the euro in global foreign exchange reserves has decreased by 1.3 percentage points. According to the data of IMF (Weo), the total economic volume of the euro in 2002 accounted for 20.6%of the global economic aggregate, while the total economic volume of the euro zone in 2021 fell to 15.1%, a decrease of 5.4 percentage points. Generally speaking, the euro is still successful under the trend of global economic multi -polarization.

As an international reserve currency, the euro reached its peak in the third quarter of 2009, accounting for 28.03%, about 2 percentage points from 30%. Calculated), the euro became an important challenger of the US dollar currency system (USD was 61.57%of global foreign exchange reserves at the time).

But the author believes that the euro may be glory in the future. The status of the euro as the "potential challenger" of the US dollar currency system may be difficult to change in the next years.

The euro is the product of political integration that transcends economic integration, which has led to some inherent defects that the euro has in actual operation. Although this natural defect can be designed to reduce its defects, it is difficult to eradicate.

First, the coexistence of a unified monetary policy with decentralized fiscal policies has led to the division of the sovereign debt market in the euro zone, and the "car" behavior of members of the euro zone is difficult to eliminate.

Second, economic integration cannot ensure the consistency of potential economic output growth rate of member states of the euro zone, which leads to the difference in natural interest rate levels of member states. There is also a significant difference in risk premiums from this. The endurance is also different.

Third, from the competition of the euro and the US dollar currency value, only the economic output gap between the euro zone economic output in the long -term perspective is that the difference between the gap between the US economy output is positive, and when it is relatively large, the euro will be relatively strong than the US dollar. , Such a trend of poor gaps, the economy of the euro area is difficult to maintain.

Fourth, the geopolitical conflict of Russia and Ukraine has increased the risk of the economic development prospects of the euro zone than that of the prospect of US economic development.

Fifth, the European Central Bank's recent anti -financial fragmented tool -conductive protection tool (TPI) is difficult to completely eradicate the endogenous risk of the unified monetary policy of the euro zone and decentralized fiscal policies.

In short, the euro is a product of political integration beyond the economic integration. The above five reasons determine the euro or it is difficult to be glorious in the past, but it cannot be denied that the euro is successful. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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Editor -in -chief: Sun Qingyang intern Zhou Sijing

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