Demand Steel price fell 20 steel companies in the first half of the year, pre -reduction in the first half of the year

As of July 25, of the 45 listed companies in the A -share steel sector (Shenwan Industry Category), 25 have released the 2022 interim results preview. , Ordos (pre -increased 116%), Changbao (93.98%) and other companies such as companies have increased their performance as ahead; the remaining 20 companies are expected to decline year -on -year by net profit.

A number of steel companies said in the performance trailer that the reasons for pre -decreased performance are related to the weakened steel demand during the reporting period and the decline in steel prices.

Some analysts predict that with the gradual recovery of steel demand in the second half of the year, the price of steel will fluctuate, and the performance of steel companies is expected to recover.

15 Pu Steel Enterprises

The performance in the first half of the year is pre -reduced

"Securities Daily" reporter sorted out and found that from the perspective of the segment, except for the pre -increased performance of the three special steel companies and the two smelting steel raw materials companies, the remaining three special steel companies, 2 smelting steel raw materials and all 15 all 15 All performances of Pugang Enterprise pre -reduced.

A number of Pandeng enterprises such as Bayi Iron and Steel and Anyang Iron and Steel stated in the performance trailer that the pre -reduction of performance during the reporting period was mainly due to the decline in steel prices and cost increases for raw materials.

According to data from business agency, the spot steel price index on June 30, 2022 was 1133 points, a year -on -year decrease of 16.57%. In the first half of 2022, steel prices fell 3.9%, which was the highest point in the year (1275 points on April 7). 11.14%.

Ye Yindan, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that the overall decline in steel prices in the first half of the year was the decline in domestic steel demand, which affected the overall performance of steel prices.

According to the data provided by the China Iron and Steel Industry Association, as of June 30, 2022, the price of domestic iron concentrates decreased by 7.54%month -on -month, an increase of 1.74 percentage points from May; 0.89 percentage points; the prices of coking coal and metallurgical coke decreased by 3.41%and 1.53%, respectively, and the decrease of 13.57 and 17.36 percentage points from May; in terms of scrap steel, the price decreased by 7.21%month -on -month, and the decline increased by 3.35 percentage points from the previous month. Essence

Ye Yindan introduced that although the domestic new crown epidemic in the first half of the year was effectively controlled, the demand for steel did not rise and fall. The main reason is that the main downstream industries such as real estate and other steels in the first half of the year are not good. Although the production of steel has decreased, the demand has decreased more, and the market still shows the pattern of supply.

Infrastructure acceleration in the second half of the year

It is expected to drive the steel industry to recover

Entering the second half of 2022, steel prices continue to decline. Business agency data shows that the spot steel price index on July 18 was 1008 points, a total of 14.5%from the beginning of the year.

Regarding the future steel price trend, Ge Xin, deputy director of the Lange Iron and Steel Research Center, told a reporter from the Securities Daily that under the traction of accelerated landing in the second half of the year, the demand for domestic steel will gradually warm up, supply or gradually shrink, and the cost is expected to be expected to be expected Continue to decrease, so domestic steel prices in the second half of the year will show a volatile situation, and the probability of large unilateral rising steel prices under multi -party factors will be less likely.

Ge Xin analyzed, "It is expected that the steel output will shrink significantly in the second half of the year. The demand for iron ore and coke will weaken.

In terms of the secondary market, as of July 25, the A -share market steel sector index (Shen Wan) has fallen by 14.04%during the year.

Ye Yindan believes that from the perspective of demand, the steel industry has ushered in an inflection point. The gradual recovery of the second half of the year will drive the demand for steel to recover. From a cost point, the price of commodities is expected to continue to fall, and the cost pressure of steel companies will be reduced. It is expected that the steel sector in the second half of the year is expected to usher in repair.

"With the improvement of the epidemic, the economic recovery will become the theme of the second half of the year. The steel industry is expected to benefit first as the early cycle industry. From the perspective of the real estate cycle, the demand for steel for real estate in the second half of the year is expected to bottom out. In the context of steady growth, infrastructure in the second half of the year Investment will accelerate to form more physical workloads, and the corresponding steel demand for infrastructure will accelerate. "Ye Yindan further stated that with the continuous advancement of manufacturing and resumption of production and the gradual alleviating of the core of automobiles, steel industry and automotive industry steel used steel The demand is also expected to recover.

Source: Securities Daily

Reporter: Li Zheng

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