International grain prices high -level shock experts said that the impact on domestic CPIs can be controlled

The people use food as the sky, and the food stabilizes the world. Since the beginning of this year, international grain prices have shocked at a high level. Taking wheat as an example, Wind data shows that on March 7 this year, the closing price of Chicago Futures Exchange (CBOT) wheat futures was $ 13.113/Pu -type ear, an increase of 72%over the beginning of the year. After that, the fluctuation adjustment, as of July 22, closed at 7.555 US dollars per ear, a decrease of more than 42%from the high on March 7, and the overall level was still relatively high.

International grain prices shock at a high level and affect geometry on my country? A number of people who were interviewed by a reporter from the Securities Daily believed that the current food security situation in my country is better, and the violent fluctuations of international grain prices have a controllable impact on my country's CPI.

International grain prices fluctuate sharply

Overseas inflation rises and rises the boat

From the recent economic data, it can be seen that the acceleration of food prices has become an important driving force for promoting inflation to overseas economies.

For example, the US CPI increased by 9.1%year -on -year in June, a new high since 1981. Among them, food prices rose sharply by 10.4%year -on -year, and the year -on -year growth rate was the highest level since February 1981; the euro zone reconciled in June of the euro zone rose by 8.6%year -on -year, and the contribution rate of food items to inflation was about 22%.

CITIC Securities Chief Economist said in an interview with the Securities Daily reporter that although international grain prices have fallen, the price of food items on the United States and the euro zone CPI is still great.

Talking about the "splitting" trend of international grain prices and food prices in the near future, Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, told reporters that this is mainly due to the stagnation effect during transmission, that is, from international grain prices to CPI to the increase in food items increase to collect the increase in food items. Narrow, often the conduction cycle from 2 to 3 months.

From the perspective of Guoyuan Securities, this round of international grain prices is mainly due to the occurrence of the epidemic, and some overseas economies are caused by stimulating the economic super currency. In the environment where liquidity is super loose, continuous inflation transactions promote the higher international food prices, and then transmit them to processing food prices, thereby raising the level of inflation to run at a high level. Combined with past experience, the changes in the cost of international grain prices are transmitted to the average of 6 months to processed food prices, but this time it is obviously different. After the slowdown of international grain prices, food prices are still accelerating, which shows that the overall food price is at Leaves from experience orbit. It means that the nature of overseas inflation is not only liquidity, but also expected problems.

Some people in the industry believe that even if international food prices continue to decline in the future, the role of food prices on overseas inflation may not weaken.

The domestic grain market is stable

Price operation in a reasonable range

Compared with the high inflation of major economies such as the United States and Europe, my country's price level continues to run in a reasonable range.

Zhang Guohua, deputy director of the Economic and Trade Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that although the global grain market fluctuates violently, unstable and uncertain factors have increased significantly, in general, my country's food security situation is better. The reason is that in addition to the steady development of grain production, this year's summer grain will be harvested again. As of July 10, the main producing area has acquired a total of 3.433 million tons of wheat, an increase of 1.6 million tons year -on -year. In addition, the overall stability of the domestic grain market and the significant improvement of grain logistics and emergency protection capabilities have also made important contributions.

Fu Linghui, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics and Director of the Comprehensive Statistics of the National Economic Economic Bureau, said that when facing international input inflation, my country has increased the domestic market to maintain stable and prices; in addition, the production of food Overall stable.

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in June, my country's CPI rose 2.5%year -on -year, an increase significantly lower than that of European and American countries. Among them, food prices rose by 2.9%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from May, affecting the CPI rose by about 0.51 percentage points. In the first half of the year, my country's CPI rose 1.7%year -on -year. Among them, food prices decreased by 0.4%year -on -year, affecting CPI by about 0.08 percentage points.

In an interview with the Securities Daily reporter, Zheng Houcheng said in an interview with the Securities Daily that it is expected that the downward trend of international grain prices will continue to continue in the short period of time, and the probability of driving force for domestic CPIs will be weakened.

Obviously, even if international food prices have fluctuated unexpectedly in the second half of the year, the impact on my country's prices is more controllable. On the one hand, because the grain sub -items are low in my country's CPI statistics; on the other hand, my country's grain dependence is low, and domestic grain prices are less affected by overseas grain prices.

"In view of the high rate of self -sufficiency in my country's three major main grains, the domestic grain market is very independent. Therefore, the impact of international grain prices fluctuations on domestic grain prices will be in a controllable state." Wang Qing said.

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