Science Station ｜ Scientists reveal the super heat wave event: wrapped by the "hot dome"

Text/Yangcheng Evening News all -media reporter Li Gang

During this time, the world has fallen into a high -temperature mode. Why is this? The reporter learned from the South China Sea Marine Institute of the Chinese Academy of Sciences that the institute's researcher Wang Chun published an article on the journal ADVANCES in Atmospheric Sciences in the recent period, revealing the behind -the -way North American super heat waves last year and issued a warning. If appropriate emission reduction measures are not taken, In the past century, the super heat wave event may become normal in the future.

Since the summer of 2022, there have been rare heat waves in the United States, Europe, and even in my country. The continuous high temperature allows many Chinese people to hear the disease that is severe heat stroke for the first time. The British people who are accustomed to cool summer are facing more than 40 degrees of breaking records and caught off guard. Wildfires broke out in many places in London, and the fire and medical system were anxious.

From the end of June to the beginning of July 2021, there was an unprecedented super heat wave incident in western North America. The temperature broke the historical records of many places. The highest temperature in history. The super heat wave event caused hundreds of people to die, caused a large number of coastal creatures, and caused terrible forest wildfires.

Studies have found that from the perspective of a physical mechanism, the formation of the "hot dome" of the local area is the most critical cause of the North American super heat wave event last year, and the abnormal atmospheric circulation signal that caused the "hot dome" mainly comes from the North Pacific and the Arctic, and Related to the abnormal activity of the Arctic Vortex. The actual climate change can be caused by natural internal changes. Natural external compulsive (such as the sun, volcano) and human beings are compulsive.

In addition to the natural internal variables of abnormal atmospheric circulation, research has found that human forced forces also have an important impact on the North American heat wave incident last year. In the long run, how many contributions are the natural external forced and human forced to contribute to the occurrence of similar heat waves? In the future, will the probability of similar extreme events increasing will continue to increase?

In order to answer these questions, the researchers use the detection attribution mode comparative plan (DAMIP) in the sixth international coupling mode comparative plan (CMIP6). Through the detection and attribution method of extreme events The impact of extreme events.

The first papers and the author Wang Chun pointed out that in the long run, human activity, which is mainly based on greenhouse gas emissions, is not only the main reason for the increase in temperature day by day, but also greatly increases the probability of similar heat wave incidents. Based on the data estimation of the CMIP6 mode, under the medium emission scenario (SSP245), the probability density curve of the atmospheric temperature on the surface of North America from 2021-2100 will move the overall to higher temperature, which will also cause the probability of a similar heat wave event in western North America from western North America from the probability 1.2%increase to 32.18%.

This also further explains that if appropriate emission reduction measures are not taken, the super heat waves that have been encountered in the past in the past will become the norm in the future, and will seriously threaten human health and ecological balance.

It is understood that in the past century, especially in the past half a century, the global surface temperature has shown unprecedented heating. The latest 6-time climate change assessment report (IPCC AR6) released by the intergovernmental climate change special committee pointed out that from 1850-1900, the average global surface temperature in 2001-2020 rose 0.99 (0.84-1.10) ° C. At the same time, the regional climate has also changed to a certain degree, especially the frequency of extreme weather has increased significantly, and the intensity has continued to increase, which has a serious impact on ecosystems, human life and socio -economy.

The team used the atmosphere to analyze the data day by day, defining the atmospheric circulation abnormal modes related to the development of the North American super heat wave event last year, rebuilt the evolution process of the super waves, and determined the source of the atmospheric circulation abnormal signal; and passed the sixth time through the sixth time. The detection attribution comparative plan (DAMIP) in the international coupling mode comparative plan (CMIP6) is estimated that the probability of a similar heat wave event occurred in western North America in the western North America in 2021-2100.

Small knowledge: What is the hot dome?

The hot dome refers to the stagnation of high -level atmospheric heat and high pressure within a period of time. The atmospheric circulation between high pressure and the nearby low pressure form a stable "ω" type. The entry of cold air made the temperature in the hot dome higher and higher, which caused the heat wave or super heat wave incident.

Further, why does the high -level atmospheric and high pressure increase the atmospheric temperature of the surface?

Source | Yangcheng Evening News · Yangcheng School

Editor -in -law | Chen Qian

School counterpart | Xie Zhizhong

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