Liu Shijin, deputy director of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference: The foothold of the steady growth is to stimulate the structural potential of the supply side

Cao Yuan, a reporter from Southern Finance and Economics All Media Reporter Cao Yuan reported on July 24, at the 2022 Greater Bay Area Chief Economist Forum, Liu Shijin, deputy director of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and former deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, emphasized Back to the normal running track as soon as possible, the goal is to achieve a 5.5%growth rate in the second half of the year.

"At present, the level of internationalization of China's economy is quite high, and it cannot be affected by external fluctuations, but under normal circumstances, its impact can still be controlled within a limited range." Liu Shijin proposed The structural potential framework of "1+3+2": Taking the development of urban groups in the urban circle as the leading head; supplement the three shortcomings of the low efficiency of the basic industrial, the size of the middle income group, the lack of basic research and development capabilities; Digital economy and green development.

Liu Shijin believes that if this structural potential can be excavated, China's overall growth potential at this stage is still relatively large.

Economic impact can still be controlled within a limited range

Regarding the target of economic growth this year, Liu Shijin pointed out that China's current potential growth rate is about 5%-5.5%, so it is difficult to reach 5.5%of the goal. Judging from the actual situation, in the first quarter, it increased by 4.8%, although it was low, but it was basically in line with expectations. However, after April this year, due to the impact of the epidemic, the growth of some regions declined sharply. The situation improved after June. High -frequency data showed that the overall economy was a gradual turn -in, but the growth rate in the first half of the year was 2.5%, which was lower than expected.

"If you want to achieve the target of 5.5%growth rate, the average year average is about 4%. From the current situation, it is not easy to achieve the goal and face more challenges."

Among them, Liu Shijin emphasized that the most important uncertain factors are the epidemic situation. He believes that the normalization of the epidemic should reach a state: that is, the actual business activity that occurs and the prevention and control policies affects Within a small range as possible, this should also be a key requirement for high -efficiency and cooperative epidemic prevention and control and economic growth.

Liu Shijin pointed out that the United States' inflation reached 9.1%in June, significantly exceeding expectations because the currency "water release" during the preliminary epidemic prevention and control process. The Fed's response was clear. It had to raise interest rates sharply, but the price of the entire economic recession increased accordingly. In June, the domestic M2, social finance and other financial indicators exceeded 11%. The growth rate of the M2 and the early stage of the M2 and the epidemic in 2020 was roughly the same, and the entire liquidity was more abundant.

The international energy and grain prices have risen sharply due to the impact of multiple factors such as the impact of the epidemic impact, the Russian -Ukraine conflict, and the loose monetary policy. The CPI of the United States and Europe has reached a new high in 40 years, and the domestic CPI index has also reached 2.5%in June. High -frequency data shows that the CPI index has risen now. Liu Shijin said that the current level of internationalization of China's economy is quite high and cannot be affected by external fluctuations. However, under normal circumstances, its impact can still be controlled within a limited range. There are three main reasons for three aspects.

First, China is a large economy. The ability to absorb external impact should be significantly stronger than other economies, especially small and medium -sized economies.

Secondly, there are abundant supply at present. The characteristics of the so -called "excess economy" are relatively obvious. The relevant government departments that have attracted much attention are also paying attention to regulation; in terms of energy, the problems of previously occurred in the country have also taken measures in time. Especially at the same time as the stable supply of traditional energy sources Fast, so the entire supply capacity is strong.

Third, the government's overall regulation capacity is relatively strong. It can stabilize prices to ensure people's livelihood through some reserves through throughput, adjustment and price subsidies, and price subsidies. The risk of cost -promoting inflation cannot be taken lightly.

After getting rid of the shortage of shortage of economy in the 1990s, China's inflation was not from demand, but cost promoted. In the past year, China has experienced a sharp rise in PPI, but due to fierce competition between middle and lower reaches, most of the price increase has been digested by middle and lower reaches. Because the demand is not so strong, it is not obviously conducted to the CPI. "PPI and CPI are a poor scissors, but recently the scissors poorly are shrinking. Especially products such as grain and energy are characterized by small demand and slow productivity. From some historical situations, the price increase of this type of commodity increase The space that is transmitted to the CPI is actually not small. "

Will there be a cost -promoting inflation in the next step? Liu Shijin believes that this problem still pays attention. Because cost -promoting inflation may occur in the case of supply, or even excess supply. Because it is a adjustment of price -comparison relationship, which is essentially the adjustment of interest relationships between different departments. He also pointed out that this risk in the short term is not great, and you don't have to be too nervous, but you still need to pay attention and be vigilant, and there should be a certain reserves in policies.

Investment and consumption on demand side

The demand -side growth is first to invest in stable, and the current focus is on real estate. Liu Shijin said that China's real estate has entered a peak period of historical demand a few years ago. However, in recent years, the entire real estate market has grown strong toughness. But this is actually a structural demand: mainly in part of the region's housing prices are rising, and the rapid development of urban agglomerations in the urban circle is driving. "But this demand seems to have reached a peak, so the growth rate of real estate has fallen to a certain degree, which is inevitable and regular." In the first half of the year, real estate development investment fell by 5.4%. If the price is calculated from the same year year -on -year, the decline is even larger. The real estate industry has a large scale, leading to the industry, and directly related to financial and people's livelihood, so too fast decline will inevitably bring a global impact. He suggested that a targeted and fast -effective measures enable real estate to return to a normal operating environment and growth track as soon as possible. At the same time, hurry up to solve some deep -level contradictions and problems, and gradually form a long -term mechanism of stable development.

In addition, Liu Shijin emphasized that investing in other service industries other than infrastructure is also worthy of attention. Relevant data shows that the investment in the field in recent years has been relatively low, about 10%or even less than 10%, but in recent years Rising, the proportion of investment in real estate and infrastructure is at the same level at the same level, at about 15%to 20%.

Liu Shijin appealed that investing in other service industries except infrastructure should be discussed in the same important positions as infrastructure and real estate. Including investment in business services, scientific research, education, medical care, health, social security, wholesale, retail, cultural and entertainment, etc., reflect the upgrade of the consumption structure.

Consumption corresponding to investment is also crucial. Liu Shijin pointed out that first of all, in terms of rescue groups, the economic and consumption decline since last year. It is unexpected that data shows that sometimes the decline in commodity consumption exceeds service consumption. One of the reasons is part of the difficult groups, especially those groups with "hand -stop". The decline in actual income has led to a decline in the purchasing power of their basic daily necessities. In order to cope with the above problems, many suggestions, such as issuing consumer coupons, direct cash, etc. Liu Shijin suggested to rescue difficult groups. First of all, he should use the social security channels that can be used, to improve the degree of acceptance of social security and the degree of obtaining methods, and to truly guarantee the guarantee.

Secondly, in terms of consumption expansion and upgrading, public consumption should be paid. At present, the proportion of public consumption in consumer structure is rising, and the proportion of public consumption is directly related to equalization of basic public services. Liu Shijin and others called for the reform of the household registration of nearly 300 million migrant workers and related housing, social security, medical, health, education and other basic public services. "If there can be great progress in this regard, it can play a pivotal role in expanding public consumption to drive housing and infrastructure investment, cultivating human capital, and the stable growth of domestic demand, especially to drive consumption."

The steady growth point is to stimulate the structural potential of the supply side

"Regardless of the short -term or medium and long term, the foothold of the steady growth still needs to be placed in the structural potential of stimulating the supply side." Liu Shijin said that the economy has declined, and people pay more attention to macro policies, but in fact, macro policies solve the solution of macro policies is that the macro policy solves is that the macro policy solves is that the macro policy solves is that the macro policy solves is that the macro policy solves is that the macro policy solves is that the macro policy is solved by the macro policy. Short -term macro balance and stability.

The Chinese economy now has at least 5%of the potential growth rate, which is 1 to 2 times higher than the growth rate of mature developed economies such as the United States. Liu Shijin pointed out that the higher part depends not only on macro policies, but also structural potential.

As a post -developed economy, there is a gap between China and the pioneer countries. "We have just passed 10,000 US dollars now, and by 2035, we must reach the per capita income level of middle -developed countries. The per capita income level of middle -developed countries is generally US $ 30,000 to $ 40,000. From $ 10,000 to $ 40,000 is China's structured structure Sexual potential is quite large. "

Recently, Liu Shijin proposed the structural potential framework of "1+3+2" in the medium -speed growth period. The so -called "1" is based on the development of urban groups in the urban circle. In the future, China for a long time, at least 60 % of the new growth momentum will be within this range; Short board: The three shortcomings of the basic industrial efficiency, the size of the middle income group are not large, and the basic research and development capacity is not strong; the so -called "2" is the new economic growth momentum. Liu Shijin is called the two "wings", which is the digital economy. And green development.

"Simply put, it is a leading leader, supplemented with three shortcomings, and two wings empower." This is the structural potential of China for a long time. The potential is relatively large, and is confident in the prospect of growth.

China is in an important opportunity period for modern construction. The advantages of China's market large scale, full industrial support, strong hedge recovery capabilities, and innovative resource gathering will be maintained and continuously enhanced. However, some structural potentials are bound by the existing system and mechanism policies. The next step to release these structural potentials, it is still necessary to deepen reform and opening up, especially to launch some reform measures with expansion effects.

First, stabilize growth and the development of the private economy must first stabilize expectations. Last year, the Central Economic Work Conference proposed a triple pressure, one of which was expected to weaken. "If this problem cannot be effectively resolved, investor producers are not optimistic about the prospects, macro policies are loose, and potential growth can be played. I am afraid it is still a problem." Second, strengthen the publicity and education of basic common sense in the market economy, and adhere to the market Methods of law systems maintain the continuity and stability of the development environment and policies.

Third, there should be more and more practical policies in terms of stability. First, in supporting the development of private economy, platform economic development, and innovative leading enterprise development, a number of targeted and strong policies can be introduced. The second is to deepen reform and opening up, solve the in -depth institutional structural contradictions, and adopt some iconic reform and opening up measures, such as the reform of rural land systems, migrant workers entering the city, equalization of basic public services, relaxation of basic industries areas In terms of access and institutional regularity, some policies and measures that have expanded effects and can boost confidence can be adopted.

Fourth, the reform and opening up in the new period still needs to "cross the river with the stones" to effectively combine the top -level design and grass -roots tests. The problem now is to build a high -standard market economy, to achieve high -quality sustainable development, and still face a large number of unknown and uncertain factors, and still encourage exploration and trial and error. The top -level design should refer to the direction and the bottom line. Under this premise, the enthusiasm and creativity of local grassroots enterprises and individuals must be encouraged. In the short term Find the right method and summarize and improve it within a larger scope.

Support the establishment of a growth carbon exchange market

In the end, Liu Shijin proposed to provide an effective market incentive for the digital economy and green development through reform. According to a recent study, the establishment of a growth carbon exchange market that promotes green innovation through structural monetary policy support. The so -called growth carbon exchange refers to the use of low -carbon, zero -carbon and negative carbon technology to obtain the same output, compared with the original high -carbon benchmark production method, the reduced or offset carbon emissions.

The growth carbon exchange market can coexist with the existing carbon emission rights, and the latter's main task is to motivate stock reduction. The growth carbon exchange market should focus on the technological innovation of the incentive incremental part. This market should have strong tolerance, which can include green energy products such as green power, but also products that can produce growth carbon exchange in high -carbon sectors such as steel, building materials, and chemical industry.

You can provide special funds through the issuance of government bonds or central banks, and purchase products that enter the growth carbon exchange market at a certain price at a certain price, and then transfer to the market to circulate. The price of carbon exchange on the market is the value assessment and remuneration method of reducing the emission reduction of technological innovation products. The government can adjust the capital scale to increase the scale of funds in the market accordingly. The determination of growth carbon exchange should meet the relevant technical standards and rules at home and abroad, and can use digital technologies and methods such as blockchain to reduce costs and standardized processes.

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