Ukraine's backlog of about 20 million tons of food can be exported, will food prices fall?

[Global Times Special Reporter Wu Duo Ke Anran Global Times reporter Yang Shasha] Editor's words: In the Russia and Ukraine, the Russian and Ukraine signed the Return to the Black Sea Port Grain Transportation Agreement for less than 24 hours. Eat. According to the agreement signed on the 22nd on the 22nd, the ship can restore the export of grain grain from the three Black Sea ports including Odessa. "Desa's port attack" caused the agreement to increase the agreement. In this context, can Ukraine export food smoothly? Does 20 million tons of food flow into the market will help alleviate the high crisis of global food prices? China is also one of the exports of food in Ukraine. Will China's food prices be affected? The Global Times reporter conducted a multi -party investigation and interview.

Unsolle Ukraine's urgency

Bloomberg reported on the 24th that the Ukrainian military stated that the second day when the two sides reached an agreement on the restarting food exports, Russian missiles attacked the Port of Odessa. Russia subsequently stated that the goal of this attack was "military infrastructure". The Ukraine Public Broadcasting Corporation reported that Russian missiles did not cause significant losses, Odessa's dock loading and unloading ability was not affected, and food exports could continue.

On the 22nd, Russia and Ukraine signed an agreement with Turkey and the United Nations to solve the issue of grain and fertilizer supply with Turkey and the United Nations, respectively. The two countries have agreed to re -open the Ukrainian Black Sea port for grain exports.

The Russian army combats the military goals of Odessa and other places. Picture source: Visual China

After the agreement was signed, the price of international wheat plummeted immediately, falling to the level before the Russian -Ukraine conflict. According to the EU official website, under normal circumstances, 75%of Ukraine's grain production is used for exports, creating about 20%of national export revenue each year. The exports of Wufang's grain exports to sea transportation are extremely high. Before the conflict, the grain and oil seeds exported from the Ukrainian Black Sea port accounted for 90%of the total export volume. About 1/3 exports were shipped to Europe, China and Africa, respectively.

Ukrainian President Zelei Sky said on the 22nd local time that after the agreement was signed, Ukraine would be able to export about 20 million tons of grain that was harvested last year. Ukraine is now worth about $ 10 billion in grain inventory.

Zhang Hong, a researcher at the Eastern European Institute of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times reporter that the agreement can solve Ukraine's economy in an urgentity and 20 million tons of grain exports will bring a lot of income to Ukraine. For West Asia, North Africa and other countries, Ukraine "soft wheat" (wheat with many starch and low protein content), which is upcoming to export, is currently urgently needed and can alleviate the grain crisis of the above countries and regions. Essence

The grain transportation agreement also brought a transfer to the long -standing Russia and Ukraine negotiations. Russia said on the 24th that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on the same day that Russia did not object to restarting negotiations on issues other than Grain.

Odessa businessman: We have been preparing

Ukrainian folks welcomed the agreement signed by both parties in Russia. Andre, a businessman who engaged in the export of agricultural products in Odessa, told the Global Times reporter that he has been quietly preparing for market rumors who have heard of the agreement with the industry who have heard of this agreement. Andre told reporters that he hoped that this agreement would be able to ship the food inventory in the warehouse as soon as possible, because the new grain after the summer harvest has nowhere to be resettled.

Statistics show that in the agricultural year of 2020 to 2021, Ukraine's grain exports exceed 44 million tons. Therefore, Andre and most local food exporters estimate that if Ukraine can export 20 million tons of food in the inventory, it will make a profit of about 2 billion US dollars.

But Andre, like others, is worried about whether the food of Ukraine inventory can be exported smoothly. It is reported that the agreement signed in Istanbul this time is largely required to ensure the safety of Ukraine food exports. Vestezki, deputy minister of the Ministry of Agriculture of Ukraine, told Germany in June that if Russia's blockade of the Black Sea coastline cannot be completely lifted, Ukraine can only export a maximum of 2 million tons of agricultural products per month.

Another question is whether Ukraine farmers have obtained better economic income this year and do not fully rely on the exports of grain products. Ukraine exports nearly 450,000 tons of meat each year. Among them, Saudi Arabia ranks first in the world in importing Ukraine poultry meat, followed by the Netherlands, UAE, and Belarus. But Ukraine's demand gap in animal feed and fertilizers is still expanding rather than shrinking.

In the city of Chelnigov, northern Ukraine, the local poultry farmers showed their farm to the Global Times reporter through a video. In the farm that could have accommodated 5,000 meat chickens, a large number of empty fences now appear. Cavin told reporters that in the past year, the scale of their own farms has shrunk by more than half. The main reason is that grains cannot be traded and lack of cash to buy animal feed. If the Russian conflict cannot end within half a year, he is pessimistic that the entire farm will be closed.

Who has pushed up the price of food

For Ukraine's grain exports, the West took the opportunity to tear into China again. "Lianhe Zaobao" said on the 24th that Obrain, the director of the US State Department's sanctions and coordination office, accused China of continuous accumulation of food on the 22nd, hoping that China would release grain reserves to help resolve the global food crisis. Liu Pengyu, a spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in the United States, said, "While the United States accuses other countries accusing other countries' food and urging food to put food, it has not reduced the energy consumption of food production in the country. responsibility". Ma Wenfeng, a senior analyst of Dongfang Aig Agricultural Consultation Co., Ltd., told the Global Times reporter that the Russian -Ukraine conflict is not the only reason for the rise in global grain prices. Epidemic conditions, extreme weather, European and American issuing currency are all important to push food prices. factor. At the same time, major food countries such as the United States and Canada have benefited a lot in this round of grain prices. They are direct benefits.

The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China shows that the total output of summer food in 2022 was 14.739 million tons (294.8 billion kg), an increase of 1.434 million tons (2.87 billion kg) over the previous year, an increase of 1.0%. "Voice of the United States" said that although China is a large food producer, it still needs to import a considerable amount of soybeans, wheat, and corn from abroad. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China imported 8.24 million tons of corn imported from Ukraine in 2021, mainly used for feed processing.

Zhang Hong also told a reporter from the Global Times that if the Russian and Ukraine conflict can be resolved peacefully, the pressure of rising global food prices will also decline. It will have positive factors for China's imported agricultural products and the domestic feed industry. In addition, from the perspective of the construction of the “Belt and Road”, the agricultural cooperation between China and countries along the “Belt and Road” in the future is also one of the important directions to solve domestic grain problems.

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