Chen Bing: In these three cases, Russia and Wu can stop fire

Direct news: Russia and Ukraine just signed a grain export agreement, and the port of Odessa, which exported food, was attacked. The international community has its own statements. Do you think that food export cooperation can be achieved under the military conflict of Russia and Ukraine?

Special commentator Chen Bing: The move of Russia's signed grain export agreement in Istanbul was called "the light of hope" by the international community. Some poor countries, especially African countries, are expected to reduce the famine. But less than 24 hours, the Russian army attacked Odessa, a port of food exports.

Ukraine accused Russia of no sincerity and bombed the grain export agreement with bombs; Russia said that they were blowing in military places near the port of Odessa and did not damage grain vessels and civilian places. The United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom, etc., which supports Ukraine, criticize Russia from not promising, and incidentally criticize Russia's "aggression." The Secretary -General of the United Nations also condemned the missile attack. Each party has something to say, a bit messy, and it is difficult to separate who tells the truth, especially Russia and Ukraine. Russia and Ukraine are in a state of war, and military considerations are always preferred. Odessa is a grain export port, and it is also the Ukrainian military base. It may be the stronghold of the Ukraine counterattack Hermone. Russia must not be concerned. The agreement brings trouble.

Therefore, it is rare to cooperate while fighting. It is only possible to effectively fulfill the grain export agreement. Although Ukraine said it would work hard to ship out of food, Russia also announced that it would not stop the grain vessels from going to sea, but the two countries would happen in military conflicts and would happen. I estimate that in the future, there will be such twists and turns. The performance of the grain export agreement will be far lower than the battlefield victory on the chessboard of Russia. Both sides will take the war as the first priority, and the food exports will be more as a diplomatic attack point. Therefore, both parties are not serious about performing the grain export agreement.

Direct news: The United States and the European Union are continuing to provide advanced weapons and military aid from Ukraine, and even mentioned that it is necessary to provide fighters to the Ukraine. How do you predict the next situation?

Special commentator Chen Bing: The United States and the European Union have regarded Russia and Ukraine as the first. Criticizing Russia to destroy food exports is really a bit lacking. If it really solves the problem of grain, the opportunity to create Russia and Ukraine's suspension of war is right. How can we pour fuel on fire by providing more weapons and exacerbate conflicts? For Russia and Ukraine's conflict, my rough judgment is that I will continue to fight until one of the three cases.

First, there are obvious victories on the battlefield of Russia and Ukraine. The second is external forces, especially the United States and NATO countries. Due to domestic opposition or cracks in the alliance, Ukraine will no longer support Ukraine to continue combat, and there will also be negotiations. The third is that international organizations such as the United Nations come forward to mediate and may end the war.

But now these three situations have not appeared, and I think Europe and the United States are gambling. I hope that the Ukrainian army can be surprisingly defeated to achieve counterattacks before the Dieber River frozen in November. The weapon was still being coaxed by the war. The Ukraine also attacked the bridge on the Dnieber River, trying to break the replenishment line and retreat of the Russian army, and the Russian army progressed slowly. Then in November, the Dieber River frozen. Until early March, the Russian army could conduct barrier -free pass, and there would be more advantages on the battlefield. At that time, the Russian and Ukraine War would be more clear. At that time, I continued to fight or sat down and talked, and there was a eyebrow. In the next three or four months, the conflict will continue in the deadlock, and Europe and the United States will continue to split due to economic problems. The degree of energy deficiency in European winter will also determine whether external forces support Russia and Uda.

Author 丨 Chen Bing, special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV "Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan"

Edit 丨 Liu Liping, Shenzhen Satellite TV Direct News

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