I used the mathematical method to study the time of Jay Chou's next album

Six years later, the fans finally waited for Jay Chou's new album "The Great Works" on July 15, 2022. This is the fifteenth solo album released since Jay Chou's debut in 2000.

question

Since the 14th solo album was released in 2016, when Jay Chou's new album was released, it became a mystery. Whenever he was asked, his answer was always "at the end of the year." I don't know how long the next album will let fans wait after the album "The Great Works" is released.

Table 1 lists the names and release time of all albums since Jay Chou's debut. Please establish a model to analyze the law of the release time of Jay Chou's album according to the data and network information in the table, and predict when Jay Chou will post the album next time?

Model

To find the law of the release time of Jay Chou's album, it is actually to determine the relationship between the album number and the date of issuance in Table 1. It is known that Jay Chou's birth date is January 18, 1979. According to the release date of the album of Table 1, Jay Chou can get Jay Chou's age at the time. For example, the release date of Jay Chou's first album is November 07, 2000, which is about 21 years and 10 months from Jay Chou's birth date. The "date" is all transformed into "age", which is shown in Table 2.

In addition, we also list the interval between the release time of each album and the previous album. It is not difficult to see from Table 2 that Jay Chou's first 14 album releases are less than 2 years, and most of them are about 1 year, while the 15th album release time and the previous interval exceeded 6 years.

In order to better observe, Jay Chou's age was used as a horizontal axis and vertical axis coordinates at the time of the album number and album release (Figure 5). It can also be seen from Figure 5 that the last data point looks very abnormal.

Linear

We do not consider the last data point in Figure 5, and the first 14 data points in the figure seem to be on a straight line. Therefore, we try to fit these points in accordance with the following linear equations: the fitting results are shown in Figure 6: = 1.18, = 19.85; fitting superiority = 0.9885. When computer software is completed, some error parameters are usually returned, which is one of them. The value of the value is between 0 and 1. The closer the value, the better the fitting effect.

To be roughly speaking, the fitting effect is not bad, and it is very close to 1. The fitting results show that Jay Chou released an album on average 1.18 years. If the time interval between "The Great Works" and the previous album is only an accident, the result of linear fit: The next album will be released in 1.18 years, that is, about 2023 9-10 in 2023 Around the month.

Power function fitting

But if you look closely at the data points in Figure 5, it is not difficult to see that the connection of these points is actually a bit concave. The reason is also well understood. Because creation needs inspiration and talent, it is usually more and more difficult. In addition, as your requirements for the work are getting higher and higher, the output cycle of the work will become longer. So it is not a linear relationship. We tried to reintegrate the first 14 data points in Figure 5 according to the following power function: the fitting results are shown in Figure 7: = 0.41, = 1.38, = 21.62; fitting superiority = 0.9983.

It can be seen from FIG. 7 that the degree of matching of 14 data points and fitting curves is higher than that of linear fitting, and the greater fitting advantages also indicate this. The inverse function of the upper type is: where = 0.41, = 1.38, = 21.62. The reverse function represents the output speed of the album at a certain age, and its function image is shown in Figure 8.

The age of Jay Chou's 15th album is 43.5. Assuming that the age of the 16th album is the age, according to the above formula: the use of a computer can find that Jay Chou's 16th album age is = 45.2, that is, 45.2-43.5 = 1.7 years later, around April 2024.

Consider the epidemic and family impact

In the model above, when we fit the data, we all ignore the last "abnormal" point. If according to the previous 14 album trends (the power function fit curve), the 15th album "The Great Works" should be released when Jay Chou was 38.7 years old (October 2017). But in fact, the 15th album was released only in Jay Chou's 43.5, with a time difference between 43.5-38.7 = 4.8 years. This 4.8 -year "abnormal" is likely to be caused by epidemic and family causes.

Cause of the epidemic: The new album Paris created documentary shows that there are no signs of the epidemic on the streets of Paris (Figure 9). This shows that most of the new albums or all work are likely to be completed in 2019. And Jay Chou also stated at the concert in 2019 that a new album will be released at the end of the New Year.

Therefore, the truth is likely to be: the new album is planned at the end of 19 or early 20 years, but the new crown epidemic has been put on hold. Because the new album needs to cooperate with the new theme tour, the tour cannot be opened, and the new album is waiting. This is more than two years. During the period, I couldn't help it, so I sent a few singles to "quench their thirst" to fans one after another. However, I did not expect that there was no sign of stopping the epidemic in the short term, so in 2022, the entire album was released, and after the tour, let's talk about it. This also explains why there are only six new songs in the new album. Without the epidemic, the latest album "The Great Works" is likely to be released at the end of 19, assuming it is December 31, 2019. We convert this time point into age (41.0 years old) and draw in Figure 10 (hollow red dot). In other words, the cause of the epidemic was released 43.5-41.0 = 2.5 years later. Family reasons: Remove the impact of the epidemic, the hollow red dot is still obviously a significant distance from our fitting curve (Figure 10's distance between hollow red dots and solid red dots). Considering that Jay Chou got married at the age of 35.5 (July 5, 2014), and had three children in the past seven years, it seems that it is not difficult to understand: being delayed by his wife, baby, and baby. In other words, family reasons have released this album 41.0 -38.7 = 2.3 years later.

Considering that Jay Chou has released albums directly regardless of the epidemic, we believe that the epidemic will no longer affect Jay Chou's next album. Considering Jay Chou's wife Kun Ling just after giving birth to a third child in 2022, we believe that the family's impact on Jay Chou will continue. Therefore, we need to join the influence of the family on the basis of the power fitting model. Assuming that the family's future impact on Jaylen is the same as before, then the next album is expected to be released in 1.7 + 2.3 = 4.0 years, that is, from July to August 2026, Jay Chou was 47 years old.

in conclusion

Jay Chou finally released his 15th album "The Great Works" on July 15, 2022. Since the last album was released six years ago, when Jay Chou posted another new album, it became a mystery. In order to study the law of the release time of Jay Chou's album, this article establishes a linear fitting model and power function fitting model based on the release time of Jay Chou's first 14 albums. The results show that the power function is better than the linear fit, and Jay Chou will release the next album in April 2024.

On this basis, this article considers the impact of epidemic and family on Jay Chou. After analysis, the epidemic and family reasons each gave "the greatest work" for 2.5 and 2.3 years later. The epidemic will no longer affect the release of the next album, but the family causes. In the end, the prediction value of Jay Chou's next album release time was revised from July to August 2026.

In addition, the model and analysis of this article also shows that Jay Chou has not released the album before it is the impact of the epidemic and family.

Reference

[1]

Wikipedia Jay Chou -Wikipedia, Free Encyclopedia, 2022:

[2]

Jay Chou. In the 2022 album guide, Paris created documentary, 2022:

[3]

Crazy Entertainment. Jay Chou's new album to release pigeons, 2022:

[4]

Jack bauer. How to view Jay Chou's new album only 6 new songs:

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Source: HIMCM

Original title: When will Jay Chou post the next album?

Edit: lychee jelly

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