Is the grain crisis rescued?Analysts of Russia and Ukraine signed important food transportation agreements: Only one of many obstacles was cleaned up

On the 22nd of local time, Russia and Ukraine signed a "parallel agreement" with Turkey and the United Nations, respectively, aiming to restore the exports of Russian food and chemical fertilizer in Russia and chemical fertilizer. Since the outbreak of Russia and Ukraine's conflict, more than 20 million tons of grain has stayed in the Black Sea port of Ukraine. Previously, the United Nations and Turkey have led many negotiations to restore food exports many times.

According to the agreement, merchant ships containing Ukrainian grains will enter the international market through the safety corridor of the Black Sea through the Black Sea. The merchant ship will be supervised by a joint group established by the Quartet to ensure that it will not bring the fire back to Ukraine. Although most countries welcomes this agreement, some people have questioned their specific implementation.

It is planned to restore food exports to 5 million tons per month

After several months of negotiations, Russia and Ukraine finally made breakthroughs in restoring the issue of grain exports of Black Sea Port. Under the active mediation of the United Nations and Turkey, the Russian Minister of Defense, Shoegugu and Wuwu Infrastructure Minister Kubrakov, signed a signing ceremony to attend the 22nd, signed two "parallel agreements" with Turkey and the United Nations. One aimed at ensuring that the cargo ship passed through the three black sea ports in Ukraine, and the other agreement was designed to promote Russia to export grain and fertilizer to the international market.

▲ On the 22nd local time, the Russian Defense Minister Shaygou (left) shakes hands with Turkish Defense Minister Akar

According to the agreement reached between the two parties, the merchant ships containing Ukraine cereals leave from Odessa, Cylino Mosk and the port of Yigoi, and will pass through a safe corridor in the Black Sea. Global Market. These merchant ships will be supervised by the "Joint Coordination Center" (JCC) composed of the Quartet representatives, and the center will be established in Istanbul, Turkey. Both merchant ships and returning to Hong Kong must be inspected by the joint group to ensure that they will not transport their weapons back to Ukraine after removing food.

As part of the agreement, both Russia and Ukraine agreed that they would not attack the ships that were identified as the Black Sea Corridor in accordance with the agreement. According to the requirements of the Russian side, the agreement clearly stipulates that the joint group must be inspected "whether the ships in and out of the port of Ukraine are carried on whether the unauthorized goods and personnel are carried on the port." According to another agreement to promote the export of Russian food and fertilizer, the United Nations will help private shipping and insurance companies to transport its agricultural products to the international market, but the specific details of the agreement have not yet been announced.

"This is an agreement facing the world." UN Secretary -General Guterres said at the signing ceremony on the 22nd that the hard -to -come by The country brings relief and helps stabilize global food prices. Since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, more than 20 million tons of grain has stayed at the Black Sea port of Ukraine. According to the World Food Program (WFP) estimates, as many as 47 million people have entered the "severe hunger" stage due to the Russian -Ukraine conflict.

▲ The goal is to restore the grain exports of the three Black Sea Port to 500 tons/month before the conflict

According to UN senior officials on the 22nd, the validity period of this agreement is 120 days, but it can be extended on the basis of "rolling" so that the food exports are normalized in the next few months. According to officials, the agreement is expected to be fully implemented within a few weeks. The goal is to allow the grain export volume of the three Black Sea ports to return to the level before the conflict, that is, 5 million tons of grain to the global market per month. While gradually clearing the inventory of the Ukrainian cafeteria, the restoration of the Black Sea Export Channel will also make storage space for the latest grain.

The reactions of all parties are happy and worried

Regarding this agreement to restore the Grain Channel of the Black Sea, Ukablakov, the Minister of Infrastructure, calls it "a huge support for the Ukrainian economy." He added that the agreement would encourage more Ukrainian farmers to sow next year. On the same day, Ivashenko, the head of the Ukrainian Grain Trade Association, said that losing the port blockage will greatly reduce the cost of logistics and thus alleviate the pressure of the production cost of Ukraine. Ivashenko explained that the cost of transporting grains in the Port of Kumanian in Romania accounted for two -thirds of the sales price, and many farmers are now forced to sell food at a loss.

▲ Turkish President Erdogan said that this agreement may help "millions of people get rid of the danger of hunger"

As an active mediation side, Turkish President Erdogan claimed that the agreement would allow "many countries to breathe fresh air" and may help "millions of people get rid of the danger of hunger." It is reported that about 14 African countries have reached more than half of the imported dependence of wheat imports in Russia and Ukraine. Officials, assistance organizations and wheat importers of African countries have welcomed the agreement. It is reported that this agreement may increase the number of wheat transported to Somalia within a few weeks to avoid the country's famine.

After Russia and Ukraine reached this grain export agreement, the global wheat price fell as much as 6.5%on the same day, setting the lowest level since the price of $ 754 per puppet earlier. As early as March, the price of wheat soared to more than $ 1,400 per clutter. Affected by this, Somali currency strongly strengthened the exchange rate against the US dollar on the 22nd, and the price of government bonds in Egypt also rose slightly. John Denon, Secretary -General of the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), said on the same day: "The importance of today's agreement on global food security is not an exaggeration."

While expressing welcome, U.S. officials questioned this agreement and even warned. John Kobe, a strategic communication coordinator of the White House National Security Council, warned on the 22nd that the success of this agreement depends to a large extent. Lincoln even claimed that the agreement was "a positive step towards the far -reaching influence of Russia and Ukraine's conflict, but he took the opportunity to call Russia's" must end "the war, thereby eliminating global food security risks. ▲ "Haimas" high -powered rocket launcher system (data map)

It is worth mentioning that the United States requires the end of the Russian and Ukraine conflict as soon as possible, while providing military assistance to the Ukraine again. On the same day signed by the grain export agreement, the White House announced that it provided Ukraine with additional US $ 270 million security assistance, including four "Hamas" high -mobility rocket system (HIMARS) and additional ammunition. This plan will increase the number of "Haimas" rocket systems provided by the United States to Ukraine to 16 units. US officials have "boasted" systems that are effectively helping the Urban military strikes. In addition, the US Department of Defense will also provide up to 580 "Phoenix Ghost" tactical drones to Ukraine. Kobe revealed that "more aid plans will be announced in the next few weeks."

The signing of the agreement marks that more challenges have just begun

According to the agreement signed on the 22nd, military experts and UN experts participating in the negotiations have no longer emitting lightning on Ukraine waters. In order to avoid mines, the agreement requires merchant ships to pass the Black Sea under the guidance of Ukraine pilots and even Ukraine search and rescue vessels. However, a copy of the documents signed by the Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations disclosed by the media, if necessary, can adjust a mine -sweep ship from another country to clean up the channel to the Black Sea port.

▲ There is a sign to warn people to pay attention to mines near the beach near Odeza

Some analysts said that this agreement was only one of the many obstacles to restore the exports of Gankang's grain exports, but a large and complicated preparations need to be carried out in terms of channels, ships, crew and insurance. As Russia and Ukraine have not reached any ceasefire agreements, commercial vessels carrying grain will need to cross the "theater route" with mines. Some naval officials and industry experts said it is difficult to predict how shipping companies and merchant ships will respond to the routes that cross the active theater.

As the first step, to clean up a corridor at least several kilometers, the time for thunder work in the coastal waters of Ukraine ranges from 10 days to several months. In the second step, as far as the 20 million tons of grain in Ukraine granary, the rapid restoration of exports will require a fleet consisting of 400 loose cargo ships, and the load weight of each ship reaches 50,000 tons. In this regard, Peter Sander, the chief analyst of the freight market analysis company Xeneta, estimates that it takes a few weeks to enter the Black Sea to enter the Black Sea.

▲ Since the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine conflict, more than 20 million tons of grain is stranded in the Black Sea Port in Ukraine

According to reports, since the beginning of the conflict, more than 100 ships have been unable to leave the Black Sea port of Ukraine, most of which are allegedly bulk cargo ships. However, Gai Praten, Secretary -General of the International Shipping Chamber of Commerce (ICS), said these existing bulk cargo ships may not be able to settle immediately. "Since February 24, these vessels have basically stopped sailing, so we must ensure that they can be available." Platen added: "We also need to ensure that (we need to ensure that (near Ukraine port) have suitable crew members, Because many people have been evacuated. "

In the early days of Russia and Ukraine's conflict, there were about 2,000 seafarers mooring at the port of Ukraine. Since then, the international shipping industry has repatriated most of the crew, and only about 450 backbone crew members are currently left. As of now, it is unclear whether Ukraine can provide sufficient number of seafarers equipped with personnel for the grain fleet. In addition, the ship owners need to buy enough insurance to cover the ships and crew, which will undoubtedly bring higher additional costs. For such high -risk tasks, many ship owners are unwilling to send their own ships and crew even if they have international guarantees.

Red Star News reporter Hu Yiling

Edit Guo Yu

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