Fengkou Think Tank · Chief Connection | Zhongtai Securities Chen Xing: economic growth may rebound significantly in the third quarter

Author:Costrit Finance Time:2022.07.22

Liu Xiao, chief reporter of Fengkou Finance Liu Xiao

In the second quarter of this year, due to the impact of an excellent factors such as a new round of epidemic, the downward pressure on the economy suddenly increased, and the main indicators in April fell in depth. The central government responded decisively and regulated in a timely manner, put steady growth in a more prominent position, insisted on not engaged in "large water fillets", promoted the original policy to make progress, and launched and implemented 33 policies and measures for stabilizing the economy. In May, the main economy in May The indicator has slowed down. In June, the economy stabilized and rebounded rapidly. The main indicators rebounded rapidly, from negative to positive, and the unemployment rate of urban investigation declined significantly, driving positive growth in the second quarter.

At present, the foundation of my country's economic recovery is not firm, and it still needs to work hard to stabilize the economic market. What challenges will the Chinese economy are expected to face in the second half of the year? What are the efforts to stabilize growth measures? On July 22, Fengkou Finance's exclusive dialogue Chen Xing, a macro -chief analyst at Zhongtai Securities.

》》 Economic growth in the third quarter or a significant rebound

Reporter: In May of this year, the main economic indicators fell slowly, and the economic stabilization rose in June. The main indicators rebounded rapidly, from negative to positive, and the unemployment rate of urban surveys declined significantly. What is the overall expectation?

Answer: Although the economic development in the second half of the year is facing a lot of challenges, it seems that the overall is critical, and the advantages of the Chinese system will promote the steady economic recovery, which should not be too pessimistic about the economy.

Although the epidemic is distributed, the consumption of residents will gradually recover, and the residents' savings will be turned to consumption on the basis of the first half of the year. The consumption power of China's large market still has greater potential. Consumption ushered in a faster recovery from the previous month, and the car contributed a lot, but the year -on -year growth rate of consumption was still low. With the gradual improvement of the epidemic, the restrictions on consumer scenarios have been liberalized, and policies such as promoting consumption have improved the consumption power and consumption willingness of residents to a certain extent. Consumption may usher in a rapid recovery.

Taken together, although there are still some risks and disturbance factors. From the middle period, economic growth in the third quarter will rebound significantly, and the overall economic development speed will be significantly exceeded in the first half of the year. The growth rate will be further close to the target of economic growth.

Reporter: In the second quarter of this year, due to the impact of the excellent factors such as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the new round of epidemic, the downward pressure on the economy suddenly increased. What are the disadvantages of China's economic growth in the second half of the year?

Answer: To sum up, the risk may exist in the following five aspects: First, the risk of rebound in the epidemic. The fluctuation of the epidemic will seriously impact normal economic development and order of production and living; second, the risk of debt in housing enterprises. Some housing companies may still face the dual pressure of a large amount of debt due and difficulty in financing; the third is the risk of input inflation. If the Russian -Ukraine conflict continues to upgrade, it will increase the prices of commodities in stages; fourth, the risk of global liquidity tightening. The Federal Reserve ’s rapid interest rate hikes, or the impact of global risk assets and the stability of the international revenue and expenditure, exchange rates, financial markets, and commodity markets of emerging market economies; and fifth, the risk of overseas economic recession. The inflation cycle and interest rate hike cycle of forty years interweave, the US Consumption confidence index downward, and the inverted yield curve, etc., the European and American economy has underwent high pressure.

Reporter: Economic operation is in a reasonable range. The main support is that the employment is stable. What do you think is expected to have domestic inflation in the second half of the year?

Answer: It is expected that the CPI is gentle year -on -year, and the PPI continues to fall year -on -year. In the second half of the year, inflation pressure will gradually shift from PPI to CPI. It is expected that the CPI will mild a mild up in the next quarter, and there will be 3%of the year, and the overall risk is controllable. There are three main reasons: first, the base number was low in the same period last year, which raised the year -on -year growth rate of CPI this year; second, input inflation affected the domestic price level. Global energy prices are still shocking at a high level, and crude oil is an important part of energy price. Although the recent crude oil prices have fallen, regional conflicts and sanctions still have large uncertainty, and crude oil prices still have a high probability of maintaining a high level in the short term. In addition, the global new crown epidemic and supply chain problems still exist. Some countries have encountered a food crisis. The prices of wheat and corn have risen sharply, which may also affect domestic price levels. Third, domestic pork prices have risen, superimposed to domestic consumption recovery, and jointly pushed CPIs to rise milder year -on -year. In recent months, the price of pork has risen rapidly, and farmers have expected to increase pork prices. There is a phenomenon of selling fences in the industry. It is expected that the pig cycle will continue. The subsequent epidemic has stabilized, and the probability of consumer demand is expected to rise slightly, and the level of inflation has been pushed together.

Inflation is not the main contradiction of monetary policy. We expect that in the third quarter, the CPIs have been on the same year -on -year and month -on -month growth. In the fourth quarter, it is the peak season for traditional consumption demand, which may cause inflation to rise. However, inflation is not the main contradiction that affects monetary policy. At present, monetary policy still mainly serves the "wide credit" policy and the repair of investment consumption. Before various economic data stabilize, the probability of monetary policy will not turn.

》》 Financial support entities are expected to strengthen

Reporter: In the first half of the year, macro policies are both accurate and powerful and appropriate. What do you think of the monetary policy in the second half of the year is expected?

Answer: In the second half of the year, monetary policy may be tightened marginal, and there is a certain probability that there is a certain probability that the probability of cutting interest rates is small. From the perspective of stabilizing the foreign exchange market and preventing financial risks, in the historical Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike cycle, my country has never reduced policy interest rates, and the central bank is unlikely to adjust policy interest rates. From the perspective of serving the domestic economic restoration, in order to stabilize economic growth, the central bank has reduced policy interest rates at the beginning of the year, and on May 20th, it has greatly reduced the LPR interest rate to stabilize the growth rate of real estate and enterprises, and to the economy, and to the economy to the economy Repair and fiscal policy implementation provides strong support. The more loose monetary policies are first. Since then, economic restoration mainly relies on positive fiscal policies to expand domestic demand with investment and consumption to drive economic growth. At present, the real economy is steadily repaired, and the effect of wide credit has gradually appeared. The central bank rely more on structural monetary policy to support the weaker part of the real economy, and the probability of cutting interest rates is relatively reduced again. We observe the liquidity indicators. The current currency liquidity is still relatively loose, and the inter -bank liquidity is reasonable and abundant. It is still at the time of policy observation. From the beginning of the "wide currency" to the clear tightening, at least it is necessary to observe the significant improvement of the economy for several months. Whether monetary policy turns or not, it is still necessary to refer to the economic repair level and the implementation of the "wide credit". At present, due to the epidemic and other reasons, the economic restoration process is still uncertain. We believe that the probability of significantly steering the "wide currency" tone before the fourth quarter is less. Whether the monetary policy turns is to refer to the price indicator of interest rates. At present, the interest rates of DR007 are still far lower than the level of policy interest rates, and the liquidity between banks is still relatively loose.

Reporter: In the first half of the year, the central government introduced a series of measures to help market entities relieve difficulties and retain the "green mountains" of economic development. Looking forward to the second half of the year, further stabilize market subject expectations and firm development confidence. What else is there?

Answer: In the first half of the year, in the context of the international geopolitical conflict and the repeated domestic epidemic, market entities were expected to be significantly impacted. Since June, with the improvement of the epidemic situation, the economy has accelerated the restoration, but the expectations of small and medium -sized enterprises mainly in the middle and lower reaches of private economies are still weak. Essence Looking forward to the second half of the year, the effectiveness of the preliminary policy and the further repair of the economy depends on the improvement of expectations, and the expected expectations of market entities are very important. In order to help market players through difficulties, improve and strengthen the relief policy may make efforts from the following aspects.

First, the tax reduction policy will continue to implement. In order to further reduce the burden on enterprises and ensure the stable operation of the industrial chain. According to the data of the State Administration of Taxation, as of the end of June, a total of about 2.6 trillion yuan in tax reductions and tax reductions have been added in a total of about 2.6 trillion yuan. Among them, small and medium -sized enterprises are beneficial subjects, and the amount of preferential discounts accounts for nearly 70 %. In the second half of the year, fiscal policies will maintain continuity and stability, continue to support the development of high -quality development in manufacturing, enhance the development of small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households, and take targeted policies to accurately assist special -difficult industries.

Secondly, financial support entities are expected to strengthen. On the one hand, the financial support of financial institutions to market entities may be strengthened, which can expand the use of structural monetary policy tools such as inclusive small and micro loan support tools, re -loan re -discount policies, and encourage government financing guarantee institutions Sales guarantee support, priority support for difficult industries, especially the service industry. On the other hand, continue to promote the financial system to reduce the expenses, promote the decline in actual loan interest rates, and reduce the operating cost pressure of small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households in the service industry.

Finally, continue to increase employment stability protection. Although the unemployment rate of urban surveys in June was reduced from rising to 5.5%, the unemployment rate of population aged 16-24 reached a new high, and the employment pressure of young people was still increasing. In the context where the employment situation is still more severe, the employment policy of stabilizing job will continue to make efforts in the second half of the year. On the one hand, it will continue to implement the policy of reducing unemployment insurance and work injury insurance rates in the second half of the year. The return of the job is to benefit the benefits, and use enough to promote employment subsidies, training subsidies, etc., and stabilize the employment stock. On the other hand, we will strengthen accurate assistance for key employment groups, implement employment promotion and service policies, and vigorously create a fair employment environment.

Reporter: Consumption is an important driving force for economic growth. What trends will there be in the release of consumer demand in the second half of the year, and will there be measures to further boost consumption?

Answer: In the second half of the year, consumer demand is expected to be accelerated. As the control measures adopted by the country are mostly terminated, travel in major cities and cities has been significantly recovered, which has improved consumption, especially service consumption, which has improved significantly. In June, the growth rate of retail sales in the community has risen sharply, and the growth rate of retail sales of consumer goods except for cars has also been negatively transferred. Looking at, consumption is expected to continue to repair in the second half of the year. On the one hand, more elastic and precise prevention and control measures will alleviate the impact of the epidemic on consumption, and the recent active change industry has appeared. According to the announcement of the "New Coronatte Virus Pneumonia Prevention and Control Plan (ninth edition)", compared with the previous edition, the quarantine management period and method of risk personnel are adjusted, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also issued an announcement of the coverage of the "communication itinerary" query results. The time range is adjusted from "14 days" to "7 days" and no longer marked the star number. These measures have undoubtedly facilitated personnel. On the other hand, the changes in traffic flow are particularly close to economic indicators such as consumption represented by Social Zero. The year -on -year growth rate of the first -tier city congestion index has narrowed significantly. From the data of the 20 days before July, the year -on -year growth rate was negative to positive, or it means that the overall economic recovery situation is still good. With the adjustment of some measures and the evolution of the epidemic, if the traffic constraints caused by the epidemic can slow down or even lift, the consumption will be further repaired up. Consumption measures will continue to make efforts and further enrich. First of all, in the first half of the year, a large number of consumer coupons were distributed through the methods of joint government and enterprises, such as cars, home appliances, catering and department store retail. A new round of consumer vouchers are expected to be issued in the second half of the year to further release consumption potential and promote consumption recovery. Among them, support for car consumption may still maintain great efforts, especially new energy vehicles and used cars. Secondly, cultural tourism and catering are also an important starting point for consumption. In the context of relaxing traffic control between regions, localities may boost such consumption by holding consumer festivals, food festivals and various types of tourism and cultural projects. However, the effect of such measures on consumption also depends on the increase in residents' income and consumption willingness. Finally, in terms of financial policy, personal consumer loan interest rates are expected to be reduced. Under the repeated interference of the epidemic and downward pressure on the economic downlink, the loan willingness of the residential department has declined significantly, the new loan continues to slump, and the growth rate of deposits has been significantly up. We predict that the consumer loan interest rate may be reduced in the second half of the year, which will stimulate residents' demand for consumer credit and enhance their willingness to consume.

》》 The risk of the "stop loan" incident does not have diffusion conditions

Reporter: In June, the economic recovery was significantly accelerated, the indicators were fully recovered, and real estate -related data was still weak. Under the premise of housing and living, will the real estate industry be loosened greater? Will the real estate industry recover in the second half of the year?

Answer: Economic disease is in real estate, and risk events are controllable. In the first half of the year, economic data showed that the economic recovery in June was significantly accelerated, and the various indicators were fully recovered. Only real estate -related data is still weak. The growth rate of real estate investment in the three categories of investment is still expanding. If there is a low, real estate has become the most important drag on economic growth. The recent "suspension of loan" incidents continued to ferment, which caused market concerns about the spread of real estate risks to the entire financial system, thereby impacting economic growth. We believe that, on the one hand, from historical experience, risks do not have diffusion conditions. Looking back at the economic recession since the 1990s and the US subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2008, these two real estate risks have been transmitted by the financial system. The current monetary environment in my country is relatively loose, and there is no large -scale US derivative tools in the United States. The market does not have the conditions for risk infection, so there is no need to worry about systemic risks. On the other hand, the demand for housing for residents is still there, and the probability of substantially disconnection of home buyers is not high.

Real estate will improve and elasticity. We believe that the solution of real estate land acquisition, investment, and start -up all depends on the improvement of sales. From the perspective of residents' leverage, my country's residential departments still have some room for debt. The leverage of my country's residential departments is moderate globally, far lower than the level of developed economies, and is significantly lower than the peak of the United States and Japan during the crisis. Excluding the impact of operating debt, the leverage of residents in my country is at a reasonable level worldwide, and the debt income ratio is also a middle part of the world. With the historical low of the mortgage interest rate, with the improvement of the epidemic situation, it can be seen that the growth rate of real estate sales in 35 cities is better than the level of March this year, and the improvement of first -tier and second -tier cities has improved. Although the number of first -tier and second -tier cities is limited, the proportion of real estate sales is only 30%, but we must see that the power required for the rebound of real estate in this round is not strong. It only needs to be at the level of about 2%last year. The sales can be pulled back to the positive growth range, and it is not difficult to achieve this level.

Real estate has declined with economic promotion, and the incrementation comes from structural adjustment. Qi Pu's data shows that the number of households per capita in urban families in our country has exceeded 1, from 0.93 rooms from Liupu to 1.06, and the per capita housing area has risen from Liupu's just 30 square meters to 38.6 square meters to meet the per capita housing area of urban family residents. The comfort standard (30-40 square meters), the total number of housing volume has been relieved. With the slowdown of my country's population growth and deepening of aging, the role of real estate in promoting the economy will gradually decline. Real estate incremental demand mainly comes from structural adjustment. On the one hand, the increase in urbanization and the concentration of population to large cities. At the end of 2021, the level of urbanization rate in my country was 64.7%, and the inflection point of the growth rate of urbanization was 70%. There was still a gap of 5 percentage points. In addition, compared with developed economies, my country's population aggregation still has room for further rise. In the end of 2021, the population of more than one million cities in my country accounted for less than 30%, while the proportion of Japan was close to 60%, and about 45%of the United States, which had more or less experienced the "counter -urbanization" process. On the other hand, urban renewal. In 2020, the "Guiding Opinions on Comprehensively Promoting the Reconstruction of the Old Community in the Urban and Town" requirements, by the end of the "Fourteenth Five -Year Plan" period, combined with the actual situation of various places, strive to basically complete the task of transforming the renovation of the old communities of the urban and towns before the end of 2000. Essence According to Qi Pu's data, in 2020, 31%of family households in our country lived in the house built in the last century, involving about 90 million households, which is the key target of the old reform. 》》 The employment situation in the second half of the year is steady and good

Reporter: In the most difficult employment season in history, what will the employment situation in the second half of the year, and can the annual goal be completed?

Answer: The top priority of employment is the most important probability of the annual goal. Affected by the new round of epidemic and economic downward pressure, the unemployment rate in urban surveys in March took a higher unemployment rate and recorded 6.1%in April, a record high since 2018. From May to June, the situation of the epidemic prevention and control was superimposed to a series of stable economic and stable policies and measures, and the urban survey of unemployment rates fell, and the current high level at the same time. In the first half of the year, the average unemployment rate in urban survey was 5.7%, which was higher than the target value of 0.2 percentage points. From January to June, 6.54 million new employment in the country and towns, 59%of the annual target tasks, in line with the timing progress. We believe that the probability of employment targets throughout the year is completed. On the one hand, when reviewing the past, the target of urban investigation and the target of new employment in cities and towns can be completed. On the other hand, policies attach great importance to employment issues. 4月以来的大部分国务院常务会议，均涉及稳就业，或是直接加大稳岗促就业政策力度，或是强调财政货币政策以就业优先为导向，或是扩大有效投资促就业，或是为Small and medium -sized enterprises have stabilized market entities.

The overall employment situation in the first half of the year has improved, but key groups still face large pressure. The unemployment rate of young people 16-24 has continued to rise and reached a new high since 2018, reaching 19.3%in June. The main reason is that the recruitment demand has been reduced under the impact of the epidemic, and the postponement of offline recruitment is delayed. Work, employment pressure is prominent. This year, 10.76 million fresh graduates of colleges and universities in my country, a year -on -year increase of approximately 1.67 million, the scale and increasing increase hit a record high. In this context, the policy has increased the employment assistance and service of college graduates. In May, the National Office issued a notice to do a good job of employment and entrepreneurs such as college graduates and other young people, and focused on expanding the scale of enterprise employment, broadening grassroots employment space, supporting independent entrepreneurship and flexible employment. , To absorb the employment of colleges and universities, in July, the State Frequently deployed policy measures for stable and stabilizing posts, emphasizing accelerating the recovery of offline recruitment, and providing continuous assistance services for the "one person and one policy" of unlimited graduates. In addition, the aging population of 16-24 years of age accounted for relatively high service industries in residents' services, approval and education, and the proportion of flexible employment in these industries is relatively high. The National Association also emphasizes the importance of flexible employment in promoting employment and strengthen its guarantee and services. We predict that with the further weakening of the restrictions on the economy and the further implementation of the stable growth policy, the economy will accelerate the recovery in the second half of the year, and various market entities will accelerate the recovery development and drive employment to rise.

》》 The global economy still shows a recovery trend, and the external needs remain stable

Reporter: The current situation of the international region has evolved deeply, and various challenges and uncertain factors have increased significantly. What are the adverse factors and favorable factors facing the import and export of foreign trade in my country in the second half of the year? What are the measures to stabilize foreign trade?

Answer: The export is still tough in the short term. First of all, the import and export in the first half of the year laid a good foundation for my country's foreign trade. On the one hand, foreign outbreaks are still at a high level. Since March since March, the delivery order supports the external needs to maintain high levels. At the same time, the US tariffs on export products in my country may be adjusted. The exports are still strong in the short term Toughness. On the other hand, the domestic epidemic situation in the first half of the year is basically better. Most provinces have achieved dynamic clearance. The epidemic conditions are basically lifted by the restrictions on domestic enterprises. The supply of export products is relatively stable. Secondly, future policies and epidemic may continue to put some pressure on exports. On the one hand, the impact of the tightening of the currency policy of major overseas economies on demand may gradually appear. Recently, the inflation of multiple economies in the world has continued to soar, and the price levels of major economies have not yet cools down, and the central banks of many countries continue to raise interest rates. On the other hand, since July, the domestic epidemic situation has a vague trend, which may have a certain impact on the production and logistics transportation of enterprises. Imports still face uncertain factors. In June, the PMI index rose to 49.2%, but from the data released by the General Administration of Customs, the growth rate of imports in my country in June still had a slight decline under the influence of the low base effect, mainly due to the fact that domestic demand was not as good as expected. In the import data, the growth rate and the growth rate of the quantity are falling, and the decline in the growth rate is still expanding. Since the beginning of this year, the international situation is complicated and severe, and the impact of the domestic epidemic is facing the downward pressure on the economy. The country has introduced a policy of stabilizing the economy and has been effective. It will gradually recover.