Sun Chenghao Shen Qingqing: The "small circle" in the United States destroys the public attributes of the supply chain

The "2022 Supply Chain Ministerial Forum" hosted by the United States closed on the 20th, including 18 economies participating in the United States, the European Union, France, Germany, India, Japan, and South Korea issued a joint statement and proposed that "in order to establish a collective, long -term, long -term, long -term "The supply chain with toughness", all partner countries should follow the principles of global supply chain cooperation, including "transparency, diversification, safety and sustainability".

Obviously, this forum is the latest case that the Bayeng government tries to reshape the global supply chain layout through internal and external governance. Internally, the United States has rebuilt domestic manufacturing capabilities through legislation, investment and other means to promote the revitalization of American industries on shore outsourcing; to the outside world, the United States seek bilateral and small multi -sides with allies to create a group and camp -like "friend chain".

The "absolute security" policy under the perspective of the Bayeng government promotes the "American center" perspective has two main considerations. The first is because of the "safety" needs of domestic industries. Due to the continued delay of the U.S. -Canadian tariffs on China and the new crown pneumonia, coupled with the Russian economic sanctions and export controls on Russia since the Russian -Ukraine conflict, the risk factors facing global supply chains have continued to superimposed, exacerbating the vulnerability of the US supply chain. The Biden government believes that rebuilding a more secure and tough supply chain is essential for US national security and economic security.

The second is the need for winning the competition to the outside world. In order to check the development of China and win the overall strategic competition against China, the Bayeng government promoted the United States -EU Trade and Technology Council (TTC) in the Atlantic Ocean, and launched the "Indo -Pacific Economic Framework" (IPEF) in the direction of "India". The Western Hemisphere proposes the "American Economic Prosperity Partnership" (APEP), which aims to reshape alliances and partner networks through low political fields such as supply chain and strive to build the three major sections worldwide. The fundamental goal of the Biden government is to build a global supply chain, an industrial chain and a value chain system that excludes China and the United States -centric.

The global supply chain is highly complex in structure. There are many participants in each vertical channel, and program or policy modification usually requires many participants to act collectively and multilaterally. The "club" small circle promoted by the United States has destroyed the global public product attributes of the supply chain, and the "collective coordination" of the camp will politically and weapon the supply chain to deepen the "democratic toughness".

From a more macro perspective, the new crown pneumonia's epidemic has a serious impact on the world economy, and the US supply chain policy has formed a "club proprietary product", which destroys the results of economic globalization. From the perspective of international division of labor, countries, which are at different stages of development, are the most efficient way to play their own comparative advantages and participate in international trade. "Friends Chain" means trade with countries with similar values ​​and systems. From the middle and long term, this may trigger the "Matthew effect", strengthen resource monopoly, and curb economic vitality.

At the same time, US policies will force the supply chain to political, pan -security, and ideology. Geopolitical, economic security and ideology will be linked to the supply chain issue. Once the supply chain field is moving towards a camp, many public products will be affected, and the world may accelerate fragmentation, including two possible prospects. The first is that the countries that rely on the United States and its "friendly chain" will have to "choose the side team" and be forced to become a promoter and victim of the supply chain and even the global economic splitting.

Second, what the United States does will cause a negative "demonstration effect". The decline in trust and confidence of economic globalization in various countries will increase, and the "anti -globalization" awareness rises. The absolute security of its own development may replace the beautiful vision of pursuing common development. Essence In this case, whether it is to deal with the current epidemic and the impact of the Russian crisis, or to create more stable and sustainable global development opportunities, it will face more difficult challenges.

At present, the global industrial chain supply chain has faced a certain risk. All parties should make positive contributions to maintaining the security, stability and efficiency of the global industrial chain supply chain, eliminating the interference of non -economic factors, and avoiding falling into the "" "" " Toughness trap ". (The author is a scholar of Tsinghua University Strategy and Security Research Center, young researcher in the United States and European research projects)

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