Will No. 95 gasoline enter the 10 yuan era, will it still rise?

According to the notice of the National Development and Reform Commission, starting at 24:00 on June 14, the price of gasoline and diesel is adjusted. The price adjustment is equivalent to 0.31 yuan per liter of gasoline 92, 0.32 yuan per liter of gasoline 95, and 0.32 yuan per liter of diesel. After the price adjustment of this round, No. 95 gasoline in some areas exceeded the 10 yuan mark per liter, and once again set the highest record since the implementation of the new pricing mechanism.

Calculated with ordinary private cars with a fuel tank capacity of 50L. After this price adjustment, the owners will spend about 15.5 yuan more for the owners. In terms of diesel, calculated according to a large truck with a fuel tank capacity of 160L, a box of oil will be added with an additional 51.2 yuan.

This round is the eleventh price adjustment of domestic oil prices in 2022. After the price adjustment, the "ten rises and one decline" pattern of refined oil during the year was adjusted. During the year, the cumulative gasoline was raised by 2720 yuan per ton. Equal to gasoline rose about 2.14 yuan per liter, and diesel rose about 2.24 yuan per liter. Ordinary private cars with a fuel tank capacity of 50L have spent about 107 yuan more than the end of last year.

In 2022, the price adjustment of the domestic refined oil calendar. (Data source: National Development and Reform Commission)

Luo Meijuan, an analyst at Jinlianchuang Reinforcement Oil, believes that during this round of pricing cycle, international crude oil prices are strong, and the overall increase is obvious. Specifically, most OPEC+member states have almost no room to increase production, and the supply of concerns is not reduced. In addition, with the gradual ease of China's epidemic, the number of vehicles in summer, the increase in consumer demand, and the market demand are better, and it has a strong support for crude oil prices.

Yan Jingwen, an analyst at Longzhong Information, believes that the retail price of gasoline and diesel has been raised, and the theoretical profit margin of gas stations has expanded. Recently, the domestic main refineries 'capacity utilization rate has risen, and China's independent refineries' capacity utilization rate has continued to rise minor. On the whole, the supply of gasoline and oil resources has increased. At present, crude oil is still high, and the cost is still supported in the face of gasoline and diesel.

The next round of refined oil price adjustment window will be opened at 24:00 on June 28.

Li Yan, an analyst of Longzhong Information, predicts that based on the current international crude oil price level, the next round of refined oil price adjustment will show a slight upward trend. At present, although the Russian conflict and the peak of summer travel in the United States still bring good promotion, the market's concerns about the Fed's increase in interest rate hikes and the economy exist. big.

Luo Meijuan, an analyst at Jinlianchuang Reinforcement, said that according to estimates, as of the ninth working day of June 13, the average price of crude oil varieties was $ 119.49/barrel. It is currently in the peak season of crude oil, and international crude oil supply is still existing, and crude oil may go up again, but the possibility of breaking through $ 130 in the short term is less likely.

According to the current mechanism for oil prices of refined oil products, there is a linkage mechanism for domestic oil prices and international oil prices, but domestic oil prices will not "infinitely" rise with the fluctuations of international oil prices.

The relevant person in charge of the National Development and Reform Commission once introduced that when international oil prices continue to rise, but not exceeding $ 130 per barrel, domestic refined oil prices are adjusted normally by the mechanism; We will take into account the interests of producers and consumers, maintain the principles of the stable operation of the national economy, and adopt appropriate fiscal and tax policies to ensure the production and supply of refined oil products. In principle, the price of auto and diesel is not mentioned or raised.

Source | Zhongxin Finance

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