"Beixi-1" resumed 40 % of the gas supply to Europe, and Russia still has one hand: the return of the turbine to the gas transmission volume

▲ "Beixi-1" pipeline data chart.

According to Russian media reports, after 10 days of "stop supply", Russia's "Beixi-1" natural gas pipeline ended routine maintenance work, and resumed the supply of European natural gas on July 21. According to the relevant statements of Russian and German natural gas operators, the "Beixi-1" pipeline gas transmission volume that is expected to restore ventilation will be consistent with the level before routine maintenance, that is, 40%of the full load capacity.

Reuters quoted Russian sources as saying that "Beixi-1" resumed gas transmission on July 21, but the gas transmission capacity was less than 167 million cubic meters per day. Restore the (gas transmission) to the level before July 11, that is, 40%of the total. This judgment is basically the same as the German side. The German government said on the 20th that Germany expects Russia to perform its contract obligations and restore gas supply according to the original plan after the pipeline is completed. German natural gas operators estimate that the volume of gas transmission is consistent with the level before routine maintenance.

However, from the perspective of Russia, the possibility of gas transmission is still possible in the future. Russian President Putin said on the 20th that Russia is preparing to repair another turbine on July 26. If the turbine sent to Canada for repair cannot be returned to Russia before that, "Beixi-1" Day The average gas volume will be reduced to 33 million cubic meters, that is, 20%of the full load capacity.

▲ The supply of "Beixi-1" in the past two years.

At present, Russia still said that so far, the German Siemens company has not received the official document of the guarantee to ensure the return of the renovation turbine. The safe operation of the pipeline. Russia's "Businessman" reported on the 18th that Canada has returned the turbine to Siemens Company in Germany on the 17th, which may be shipped to Russia on the 24th. The German Ministry of Economic Affairs previously stated that the details of the turbine.

The turbine seems to be the key factor in this "stop supply", but the Russian conflict and the subsequent Western sanctions on Russia are the root causes of the incident. "Beixi" has two pipeline branches. Among them, "Beixi-2" has been the focus of Russian and Western energy games in recent years. After Russia launched a special military operation in February this year, the "Beixi-2" was put on hold due to the deterioration of Russian Western relations. Relatively speaking, the "Beixi-1" pipeline has been "full of energy" after its completion in 2011, and it takes Russia's role in Russia's major gas pipelines in Europe.

In mid -June, the situation changed. At that time, Russia, as the largest shareholder, was on the grounds that Siemens had not delivered a turbine to Russia in a timely manner to reduce the supply of natural gas through the "Beixi-1" pipeline to Germany by nearly 60%. Siemens said at the time that parts were sent to Montreal Vivian in Canada, but could not be returned due to Canada's sanctions on Russia. The German side earlier this month calling on Canada to return the parts sent by Siemens, and to avoid Canada's sanctions on Russia, that is, it is handed over to Germany, not Russia.

However, Germany does not agree with Russia's reason for the "turbine to repair the turbine for suspension". The German Ministry of Economic A spokesman previously stated that the turbine was an alternative component that has only been used in September. The real reason for the supply ". Western countries tend to use Moscow as a "coercion tool" for Europe.

Russia denied this statement that Putin previously said that Western countries tried to blame Russia in Russia, but this was the result of their systematic mistakes.

But objectively, the "Beixi-1" pipeline stopped supply and exacerbated the tension between European natural gas supply. The European Commission proposed to reduce the use of natural gas by 15%on the 20th to cope with the problem of natural gas shortage facing the European Union. According to the proposal, from August 1, 2022 to March 31, 2023, the EU member states will take voluntary measures to reduce the amount of natural gas from the same period from the same period of the previous five years. If the shortage of natural gas supply at that time, the EU will take mandatory measures to achieve this goal. At present, this proposal has been criticized by EU multi -countries, including Spain.

Although the European Union has stated that it has been prepared for Russia no longer restarting the "Beixi-1", EU Energy Specialist Simson said on the 20th that if Russia completely stops natural gas supply this year, it will lead to at least 30 billion yuan in winter natural gas in the European Union. cubic meter.

"Qi Waste" will undoubtedly lead to surge in energy prices. However, on the other hand, this summer's heat wave invaded, and the energy crisis increased again, and the demand for natural gas in European countries continued to increase. With the dilemma of Europe and retreat, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov recently told the "Russia today" website that Russia does not believe that Europe will completely cut off energy relations with Russia, "completely disconnecting the relationship with Russia and using the United States to" forcibly promote the United States "forcibly promotes promotion "LNG does not conform to the interests of Europe."

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Author: Liu Chang

Edit: Shen Qinhan

Editor in charge: Song Yan

Picture: Reuters, Bloomberg

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